Four Programs That Can Exceed Expectation in 2023
By Jordan Merritt
The excitement is starting to ramp up as we are only a few weeks out from fall training camps in college football. Even before a ball is snapped in Week 1, or Week 0 for a select few, teams believe they can improve on last season’s record. With CBS Sports recently updating their rankings, I take a look at four teams who can exceed expectations this year:
South Florida (CBS Rank: 128)
This may seem like a real cop out of a selection. USF as it stands only has three teams below them in the rankings. However, I see the chance of a massive leap from a team that has been in the cauldrons in recent years.
Daniel Da Prato went 0-3 as interim HC at the back end of the 2022 season. In the search for a change in fortunes, the Bulls appointed Alex Golesh, the Tennessee OC/TE coach that helped break a handful of offensive team records. The USF offense was middle of the road in the FBS, averaging 389.7 YPG last year. Golesh has shown what he can do with a floundering offense…
Although South Florida clearly doesn’t have the player quality of Tennessee, they do have a veteran QB in Gerry Bohanon, alongside some intriguing transfers at receiver. I’m confident USF will increase its production on offense under Golesh; a major factor in being better in 2023.
On the defensive side of the ball, USF finished dead last, giving up a whopping 516.6 YPG. Yeah, it can only get better, but how much better? The team gets most of its starters back, and with it a new DC that has been around the block in Todd Orlando.
If USF can improve a little on offense and a bit more on defense, they will easily better their single win in 2022 and move up those rankings. The schedule is favourable, so don’t be surprised to see South Florida move into double digit rankings in 2023.
Arizona State (CBS Rank: 97)
The less said about the Sun Devils and the 2022 season the better. Despite a surprise win against high-flying Washington, Arizona State only managed two other victories, against North Arizona and Colorado. This however seems like a blip caused by a fair few off field problems before the 2022 season even started.
Kenny Dillingham is the new HC in 2023, taking over from interim Shaun Aguano who did a valiant job under the circumstances. If you are a fan of the PAC-12, you will recognise Kenny Dillingham as the 2022 Oregon OC who helped Bo Nix look like a new man. Dillingham has shown he has a gift for recruiting and convincing some of the big names to stay. Things are already looking a lot brighter in Tempe.
Expect the Sun Devils to be better on both sides of the ball, especially on defense. Dillingham attacked the transfer portal hard and looks to have improved some key areas including the edge position. As well as acquiring players, they managed to keep hold of players like WR Elijhah Badger and DE B.J. Green. Dillingham seems to be creating a healthy culture at Arizona State quicker than maybe most expected.
Even with the positives off the field, things need to align on it to get even close to the 2021 ranking of 25. It helps massively that they have eight home games in 2023. Also, half of their games they are favoured , with four of them heavy favourites . I think six wins in Kenny Dillingham’s first season is achievable, and with that a bowl game and a drastically higher ranking.
Oklahoma (CBS Rank: 55)
Two years out from entering the SEC conference in 2022, a 6-7 season for Oklahoma wasn’t in the plan. Getting manhandled by Texas and TCU, while just scraping a bowl game, has put second year coach Brent Venables in a tough spot. Last season clearly had it’s issues, including things that were out of the coaches control. Star QB Dillon Gabriel had a tough start, while also suffering injury. However, he still managed over 3,000 passing yards and 25 touchdowns. A sign for optimism if playing hurt can get you those figures.
The offense will take a leap, especially if Gabriel stays healthy. The Sooners averaged 32.8 points per game; I expect that will improve to near the 40s as we have seen in previous seasons. The much bigger problem was surprisingly on defense. Venables had his defense purring at Clemson, so when he took the helm at Oklahoma, we didn’t expect a drop off, let alone a collapse. They finished 2022 ranked 122nd, allowing 30 points per game. Similar to the teams I’ve mentioned above, it can only get better – but I expect it to drastically improve for the Sooners.
If we see improvements on both sides of the ball, Oklahoma will be challenging to make the Big 12 championship game again. They avoid a couple of the teams that beat them last season, while playing some of the easier expansion teams. 5 of last season’s losses were by 1 score or less, which shows despite being bad last year, they aren’t far off climbing back into the AP top 25 again.
Iowa (CBS Rank: 46)
Iowa were a running joke through most of the 2022 season. However, for a team who averaged a measly 251.6 YPG on offense, they still managed an 8-5 record with a 21-0 bowl win over Kentucky. If you follow college football, you will know the Iowa defense was extremely good. A defense with 23 turnovers helped mask how horrific it was on the other side of the ball.
So we know what needs to change, but have Iowa gone about fixing it? Coach Ferentz grabbed experienced quarterback Cade McNamara from Michigan, which is an upgrade from last season. 4 star 2022 Ohio State recruit Kaleb Brown has also transferred in, which could be a big pick up. The Hawkeyes also return two of their main threats on offense in TE Luke Lachey and RB Kaleb Johnson.
Iowa could regress on defense with a few of their star players now on NFL rosters. However, they have reloaded at key positions in previous years so don’t expect too much of a drop-off. They also have enough experienced players to hold the group together.
If the offense takes even a small step, Iowa could be fighting for the Big Ten West. They avoid Ohio State and Michigan but do have to go to Penn State on the road. With that being said, a 9 win or even a 10 win season is not out of the question.
JORDAN MERRITT
College Football Analyst
Ever since he entered Husky Stadium in 2017, Jordan has been a huge fan of College Football. Over the past 3 years he has covered the PAC-12 at 5 Yard College, While recently becoming a contributor at FanSided for The Husky Haul. Follow Jordan @jordm87!