Floors and Ceilings for the AFC North
By Lee Wakefield
Welcome back to the second sitting of floors and ceilings! After hitting the NFC North last week, I am moving on to its AFC counterpart today.
Before we dive into the teams, here is a question to get your thinking cap on for. Is this division the strongest in football right now? Let me know what you think.
Cincinnati Bengals
It is safe to say that the Bengals are good. In the past two years, the Bengals’ season has ended at the hands of the Superbowl champion by the score of 23-20.
These Bengals aren’t the Marvin Lewis Bengals whose yearly tradition appeared to be to lose in the Wildcard round. Something they managed to do six times in seven years between 2009 and 2015.
Coming off the 2022 season, this wasn’t a team in need of much surgery. Which seems to be how they’ve attacked things – Singing Orlando Brown, simultaneously bolstering their left tackle spot, whilst weakening the rival Chiefs. Not overpaying Jesse Bates, remaining firm in that dispute, and signing Nick Scott. Similarly, allowing Von Bell to walk whilst promoting 2022 draftee Dax Hill.
Tinkering has taken place. The main players stay the same and exciting draft picks, such as Myles Murphy and Andei Iosivas are slotted to supplement this talented squad.
The Floor:
Barring a catastrophic injury to Joe Burrow and a bunch of other star players, this team is going to be good no matter what. They won 12 games last year, if opponents have sussed out what Cincy is doing then maybe they win 10? Because even if you know what they’re running, teams still have to stop them. Will 10 wins still win the AFC North?
The Ceiling:
Not only are the Bengals good, with an elite quarterback like Joe Burrow, but they’re also here to stay. Surely we are only a matter of weeks away from the announcement of a gaudy extension for their star man?
With Burrow and other stars like Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Trey Hendrickson, in the words of Michael Jordan, the ceiling is the roof. Now is the time to strike too! Because after Burrow gets paid, there needs to be money left over for Chase. Will Higgins be back? D.J. Reader and Logan Wilson are also free agents in 2024. This is the swansong for Tyler Boyd too… Cincinnati should just win a Lombardi whilst the band is still together. A 13-4 season might get them to the #1 seed in the AFC.
Baltimore Ravens
With Lamar Jackson finally tied down to a long-term contract, the Ravens can try to reel in the Bengals at the top of the AFC North.
The Ravens’ front office appears to have at least attempted to put as many weapons as possible around Jackson this offseason. Odell Beckham Jr. and Nelson Agholor, as well as a first-round pick, Zay Flowers, give the team some further pass-catchers. Baltimore no longer has to rely on the health of Rashod Bateman or count on Devin Duvarnay as its WR1. That said, I actually believe the hiring of Georgia Offensive Coordinator, Todd Monken is their signing of the offseason.
Monken likes to be aggressive, he likes to use tight ends and also get his QB on the move, as pillars of his scheme.
All music to the ears of Ravens fans and QB alike, I’m sure.
The Floor:
As much as the headline is that Lamar is under contract for the future, it’s not all been good news for the Ravens.
I feel like this team has lost a good amount of experience in the likes of Marcus Peters, Calais Campbell, and Chuck Clark. What if Odell just isn’t that guy anymore? And Bateman suffers another injury?
The Steelers look better and the Browns aren’t going to face that much in-house drama in 2023. Could Baltimore get swallowed up by this division if events conspire against them?
I wouldn’t rule it out completely. 7-10.
The Ceiling:
As mentioned above, I love the hiring of Monken. A step away from the overly run-reliant scheme of Greg Roman, and towards Monken’s explosive-play-hunting offense will do Lamar the world of good. Monken will do well to retain Mark Andrews’ standing as a cornerstone and also Jackson’s mobility. However, the next level will be reached if he can get Flowers and Beckham involved on deeper passes and with YAC opportunities from Jackson’s sweet spot in the middle of the field. Hitting the ceiling would mean challenging Cincinnati at the top of the North, 12-5.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers feel like the old-reliable of this division, the Daddy of it, a little like the Packers last week. However, much like Green Bay, they seem to have allowed at least a couple of their AFC North rivals to get ahead of them.
It’s tough to go from a franchise legend at quarterback to the young guy – a problem the Packers could encounter in 2023.
Pickett is improving but I just don’t see him having the ceiling as a player that will allow him to keep up with the other passers of the division, or indeed the conference. This sort of hamstrings Pittsburgh before they even get started. Coaching makes up for some shortcomings and Mike Tomlin does a lot of that. Offensive Coordinator, Matt Canada on the other hand, feels like an even bigger negative and it shocks me that he remains in the job.
The Steelers had a nice draft but was it enough?
The Floor:
Mike Tomlin will never have a losing season. If he does, I am not going to be the guy who predicted it. It just seems inconceivable, doesn’t it?
Tomlin is a legendary Head Coach. He’s such a floor-raiser that even the 2021 Steelers with the empty shell of Ben Roethlisberger at QB won 9 games and made the playoffs!
Therefore the prediction for a Steelers club that had a really strong draft is 9-8.
The Ceiling:
As much as the floor is really high for Pittsburgh, I question how far away the ceiling is. The overriding question when looking through their depth chart is, where is the star power? Especially at premium positions.
Minkah Fitzpatrick is one of the best safeties in the NFL. TJ Watt is a force, of course. But on offense? It’s solid, sure, but there’s no Ja’Marr Chase, Mark Andrews, or Nick Chubb on this roster. They lag behind their divisional peers in this regard.
Perhaps Najee takes a leap? But then, behind this offensive line..? Don’t count on it.
It’s sort of silly but the ceiling is maybe one more win at 10-7.
Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns. The team that nobody wants to talk about, never mind root for. Just as they looked like they were resurrecting themselves, becoming a serious football team with playoff aspirations, they go and get involved with DeShaun Watson.
There will probably be less furore about the Watson saga in 2023, and the Browns’ QB will likely play closer to his usual level. The Browns’ offseason dealings have also been quite fruitful, with the likes of Elijah Moore, Za’Darius Smith, and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo bolstering the ranks.
Much like the rest of the AFC North, the roster is strong. On offense, they have an identity, the best running back in the NFL, and their long-term starter for 17 games. On defense, they have the best pass rusher in the league and a more stout-looking run defense. So on the face of it, things look better.
The Floor:
What can seriously derail the Browns this year? There’s the obvious – injury and the AFC North factors that can come into play but aside from that?
I’m not saying that the Browns are going to the Superbowl. I’m not even saying that they’ll be better than Cincinnati or even Baltimore but I don’t see too many glaring holes in the roster or their process.
The draft wasn’t too punchy because of the lack of picks but what they did in free agency definitely offsets that for me.
Cleveland has a 9-7 floor for me.
The Ceiling:
The roster certainly looks better as I alluded to above. The schedule is bang in the middle of the road, according to strength of schedule, so the 7-10 record of 2022 probably should be surpassed.
But by how much?
Well potentially by quite a lot! I feel like the Browns don’t have many definite losses on their schedule. If they get the bounce of the ball in their divisional and close games, I can see a 12-5 ceiling.
Feature Image Credit: Baltimore Ravens
Lee Wakefield
NFL, CFB & NFL Draft
Lee Wakefield IS A defensive line enthusiast, Chargers Sufferer, and LONG-TIME writer and podcaster with a number of publications. Find his Chargers content over at Bolt Beat. @Wakefield90 on twitter