WEEK 4 NFL REDZONE PICKS
We may have lost the Titans game this weekend but there is still a loaded eight game slate in the early slot. This should mean wall to wall double boxes on NFL RedZone. Steve Moore breaks down the betting angles and makes his picks for the early games in Week 4.
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Take Advantage of Injuries
The big injury news (Covid notwithstanding) in the NFL this last week was the Tyrod Taylor collapsed lung and the circumstances around it. Justin Herbert will go again against the Buccaneers but, given that we are talking about the Chargers, unsurprisingly that is not the end of the injury woes. They are now missing two starting linemen in Bryan Bulaga and Trai Turner as well as Mike Williams.
This will make that very exciting Buccaneers defense lick their lips. However, the Buccaneers themselves still have not fully clicked on offense. Added to that, their own skill positions are a banged-up mess. Chris Godwin is out, as is Leonard Fournette. Meanwhile, Scotty Miller is also questionable. The idea that there will be many points scored by either offense is almost laughable. I would consider taking the Buccaneers win with an under points line as a single but Chargers @ Bucs under 45.5 (13/20 with 888 and unibet) is an excellent bet.
Good Teams Don’t Like losing
Baltimore got shown up on Monday Night Football by the Kansas City Chiefs. However, the Ravens are much too good a side to wallow in self pity and a game against Washington is the perfect get right game for an angry Ravens unit. This is a game where the Ravens might be up 28-3 by halfway through the second quarter.
The only reason I wouldn’t feel confident taking a 14 or more-point line in the Ravens favour is that I could see some Kyle Allen garbage time ‘comeback’ come the second half. Therefore, Ravens + 9.5 (1/2 with Betfair and PaddyPower) would be the safe accumulator bet.
Treat Thursday Night Like a Mini-bye
One of the closest games on the schedule this weekend is the Jacksonville Jaguars travelling to the Cincinnati Bengals. The entire reason that the Bengals are favoured is purely because, on the face of it, Joe Burrow has been playing too well to go winless through four weeks.
Pan out to the entire roster however and there is very little to separate them. On top of that, there are two more things to consider. The first being that with playing on Thursday Night Football in week three has given the Jaguars a ‘mini-bye’ as it were to prepare for a side that is evenly matched.
The second is the injury situation again. On the positive side for the Jaguars is that D.J. Chark is back, and it has already born out over the last year and a quarter that Gardner Minshew’s connection with him makes him a vastly better player when Chark is on the field. Meanwhile on the negative side, the Bengals are missing Geno Atkins and while Atkins is no Aaron Donald anymore, that is still a huge hole on the defensive front. As a result, it seems crazy that the Bengals are favoured when the Jaguars (6/5 with various) should be.
Trust Good Line-Play
The Bears have been one of the scourges of this column all season. With the Indianapolis Colts (4/6 with various) riding into Soldier Field we are going to the well one more time. However, the reason for this no longer has anything to do with the Bears play behind centre.
For this one, it does not matter which of Trubisky or Foles is behind centre because the Colts defensive line will have them running for their life, while on the other side of the ball, the Colts own offensive line will be the first one to give a quarterback plenty of time against this Bears defense. The Colts win on both sides of the trenches in this one and it will make them very difficult to see losing.
Battle of the 0-3’s? Who Beat Them?
Finally, a good game to look at is the battle between two pre-season playoff teams who have started 0-3 in the Minnesota Vikings against the Houston Texans.
If you turned around to the Texans and told them that three of their losses in 2020 would be against the Chiefs, Ravens and Steelers, they would probably be fine with that and still be looking at a 10-6 season. The fact that they were the first three games of the season is a cruel twist of fate from the scheduling gods.
As for the Vikings, they managed to look better against the Titans. However, we now know that performance must be taken into context that we know several Titans players were suffering from the effects of Covid, even if they themselves didn’t know it at that point.
The bigger issues for the Vikings though, will be how several their preparations will have been hit both physically and mentally from the after affects of hearing that news coming out of their previous opponent. Without that, this would be an even game. With it, the Texans should win and more importantly Deshaun Watson should torch the truly awful Vikings secondary and should go way over 300 yards passing. Deshaun Watson over 295.5 yards passing (Evs with 888 and Unibet) is an absolute steal.
TIPS REVIEW:
Accumulator: Chargers @ Bucs under 45.5 points, Ravens +9.5, Jaguars, Colts, Deshaun Watson over 295.5 passing yards
NAP: Jaguars
Other Single: Buccaneers to win and under 42.5 match points (13/8 with bet365)
Steve Moore
NFL BETTING ANALYST
A Welshman exiled in Luton, Steve Moore has been a Buccaneers fan ever since he thought a stadium with a pirate ship was cool (he was only 9 at the time!).
Steve has also hosted podcasts on both the NFL and British Universities football and was the statistician for 2008 College Bowl finalists, Staffordshire Stallions