NFL DFS: Week 4 DraftKings Picks
Can you believe we’re almost through a quarter of the regular season? Or maybe we’re not if games continue to get postponed but there are still 11 games on the main slate in Week 4 for us to sink our teeth into. Here are my Week 4 NFL DFS picks from the main DraftKings slate.
These are my personal opinions on the games and strategies at the time of writing this. I may employ different players and strategies than above if later or further information makes me re-evaluate my opinions.
Quarterbacks
QBs are scoring a lot of fantasy points this year! Four of the top five on the slate average over 30 fpts and the odd man out is Lamar Jackson. DraftKings put the prices up this season for QBs and they’re still hitting value. I imagine the averages will drop as defenses around the league catch up with offenses after the shortened preseason.
Josh Allen, BUF - $7.3k
The Bills, and Josh Allen in particular, are not getting the respect they deserve. This is a top team with a high scoring offense and Allen is the main reason for that. His QB rating for the season is 124.8! Admittedly he played the Dolphins and Jets but he continued that trend against a tough Rams defense. He’s scored over 33 fpts in each game so far and he’s not a one-trick-pony on the ground anymore, he’s only carried the ball 8 times over the last two weeks. He faces the Raiders in what should be a high scoring affair.
Kyler Murray, ARI - $7k
I’m jumping back on the Kyler train. It’s funny, after picking him last week, his 24.7 fpts felt like a bit of a disappointment. This is partly because of the high scoring nature of the DFS season so far but also because the bar is so high with Murray. He has four TDs on the ground and in the air this year so he’s a double threat and he’s getting carries inside the five. He’s facing a Panthers D which, as I’ve said before, I’m going to target this year. (I might come back to that point later in the running backs section)
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA - $5.4k
Fitzpatrick is the top value QB on the slate this week. As he played last Thursday night, I think people will have forgotten about him and his ownership could be low. He’s coming off two great fantasy weeks and faces a Seattle team which is haemorrhaging yards through the air.
Running Backs
If you can afford Kamara or Elliott this week, take them. Zeke is game-script, matchup proof and he’s only $7.8k, but if you’d rather play high-priced receivers, which has been a successful strategy this season, you’re going to need some better value RBs.
Kenyan Drake, ARI - $6k
He’s getting bellcow usage in the running game although his targets are smaller than I’d like, that’s why he’s only $6k. However, he’s getting opportunities and I’m expecting him to score this week. He’s also playing a team that has given up big fantasy scores to RBs each week this season.
Darrell Henderson Jr, LAR - $5.8k
Henderson appears to have made the RB job his own in the absence of Cam Akers. Assuming Akers misses this week too, at $5.8k he offers great value. The Rams are a run-first team and even with Malcolm Brown taking carries, there’s plenty of touches left. The Rams face the Giants this week and have an implied total of over 30.
Mike Davis, CAR - $5.7k
Davis had CMC-like usage in the passing game in Week 3 with nine targets and he also carried the ball 13 times. I’m expecting the Panthers to be trailing for most of this game and Davis to be targeted a similar amount.
Wide Receivers
The top 5 most expensive WRs are all in good situations this week but my favourite play is D.K. Metcalf. However, there’s plenty of value at WR this week as well.
Devante Parker, MIA - $5.7k
If you play Fitz, stack him with Parker. His targets have been a bit erratic but he’s also been playing with a hamstring injury which appears to have now sorted itself out. The Seattle/Miami game has an implied total of 54 and assuming Miami is playing from behind, there should be a lot of targets for Parker.
Hunter Renfrow, LV - $4.6k
He’s the Steve Davis of wide receivers. It’s always an unexciting moment when you pick Hunter but he might be our Mr. Reliable for Week 4. He’s definitely the healthiest of the Raiders receivers and he proved last week the value of that with 20.4 fpts. Picking a receiver at this price isn’t always about expecting them to smash. Sometimes it’s about the opportunity you gain by being able to play someone else more expensive.
Tight Ends
Once again, tight end is proving to be a bit of a wasteland this year and if you’re not picking the expensive options, it’s hit and miss. I really liked Jonnu Smith until the game got postponed. I also want to pick Logan Thomas again as his targets are too high to ignore but he seems to burn me each time I pick him.
Hunter Henry, LAC - $4.6k
Henry has had reliable target numbers in each of the first three weeks (7,8,8) but he’s still yet to reach the endzone. I think that changes this week. Mike Williams is beaten up and possibly won’t suit up on Sunday. Double-H may be low-owned as Tampa Bay did a good job shutting down Fant last week.
Jordan Akins, HOU - $3.3k
Akins hasn’t been spectacular so far this season but you don’t have to be at $3.3k. He faces a Vikings defense who is giving up 15.38 yards per reception to TEs this year. Houston has had the worst three-week schedule you can imagine and I expect them to bounce back this week. Akins is getting in the end zone! You heard it here first. Maybe.
Defense
Rams - $3.9k
Facing the Giants this week who just aren’t very good. There should be plenty of turnover opportunities with New York chasing the game.
Texans - $2.5k
Their opponents, Minnesota, have been inconsistent on offense and they’re always capable of a complete meltdown. At $2.5k, the Texans D doesn’t need to do much to hit value.
Sneaky Stacks
Miami
I don’t think this will surprise you with my picks above but in a stack I’d add Preston Williams ($4.5k) and Mike Gesicki ($5.1k) to the mix. I wouldn’t play all four of them in one lineup so I’d choose Fitz plus two pass catchers. If playing multiple lineups, you can play different combos.
Cincinnati
Cincy faces an inconsistent Jags team this week and is favoured by three. Joe Burrow ($6.3k) has been great from a fantasy perspective the past two weeks. Stack him with any two of Tyler Boyd ($6.1k), AJ Green ($5.5k), or Tee Higgins ($4.5k). If you want to be really sneaky, add Drew Sample ($3.5k) as well although he burnt me last week after picking him in this article.
