From Bloodbath to Walkover: Which will be the NFL's most competitive division in 2026?

By Paul Gould

As the old saying goes, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. The same can perhaps be said for each of the eight NFL divisions.

Strength, it can be argued, lies in depth. So, while the NFC West boasted three playoff teams last season, two of whom contested the NFC Championship Game, it also featured the woebegone Arizona Cardinals who ended up with a paltry 3-14 record. And, like the meanest of playground bullies, the Seahawks, Rams and 49ers showed no mercy in pinching two victories apiece from the Cardinals to inflate their own win columns.

A similar scenario played out in the AFC, where all divisions except the North were dominated by duos of playoff-bound teams with +10 wins, and where the fourth placed team in each case mustered just three wins. Of the three-win basement teams, only the Raiders managed a victory against a divisional opponent, albeit an ugly and meaningless 14-12 triumph against a hamstrung Chiefs outfit in Week 18. The Titans and Jets, meanwhile, suffered the same unhappy fate as the Cardinals in being swept by all their division rivals.

In all the four divisions already mentioned, the final standings show a double figure win gap between top and bottom. And the title games in each conference were fought between teams from three of them. The quality at the top of each cannot be denied, but can they be considered truly competitive when the disparity between the haves and the have-nots is so wide?

At the other end of the spectrum, the NFC North and NFC South ended the season with a mere two wins separating the division winner and the team at the bottom of the pile. The NFC South, frequently ridiculed for a lack of quality, lived up to that reputation with none of its four teams capable of registering a winning record. Was it strong? No. Was it competitive? To an extent ā€“ the Saints were eliminated from the playoff race in Week 13 and the Falcons followed suit a week later. But the battle for the division title between the Buccaneers and Panthers went right to the wire.

The NFC North was both stronger and more competitive than the South. In stark contrast, all four teams ended up with winning records and the Packers took a wildcard spot to enter the playoffs alongside the division winning Bears. Here, the Vikings were the first to be eliminated from postseason contention, but not until Week 15. And the Lions only succumbed in Week 17, following a loss to the Vikings.

Suffice to say, whilst perhaps not the strongest division in the NFL in 2025, the NFC North was the most competitive.

So, will it retain that crown in 2026 or is there another divisional battle that will result in a tighter race for the spoils? Where will the bloodbaths and walkovers emerge?

AFC East

This feels like the most polarised division in football, with the Patriots and Bills set to assert their control again while the Dolphins and Jets try to keep their heads above water. That said, New England could be dragged back towards the pack with a much tougher schedule than last year, and Buffalo may take time to get used to life without Sean McDermott at the helm. The Jets hope to make progress and build on their offseason acquisitions, but their ceiling may be limited with Geno Smith returning at quarterback. However, they should have enough to jump ahead of the Dolphins who are facing a complete rebuild under new HC Jeff Hafley. Donā€™t expect this one to be close.

AFC North

This division is renowned for bruising internal battles and thereā€™s no reason to believe that 2026 will be any different. The gap between top and bottom at seasonā€™s end was five wins, but the Steelers were unconvincing winners and itā€™s entirely possible that they could go from first to worst this year. The Ravens are widely expected to be back at their best after a lacklustre 2025 campaign, and the Bengals always have the potential to impress with their high-octane passing attack led by Joe Burrow. As for the Browns, the loss of Myles Garrett was mitigated by the acquisition of Jared Verse in their huge trade with the Rams. Verse will join a top ten defence. However, like the Jets, question marks at QB may restrict their chances. Some change in the final positions is likely, but whether that results in a wider margin between division winner and basement dweller remains to be seen.

AFC South

Embed from Getty Images

The floor of the division should be raised from the three wins achieved by the Titans last season. Tennessee is expected to get better (perhaps significantly) under new HC Robert Saleh. Meanwhile, the reigning division champion Jaguars may find it hard to replicate the momentum that saw them surge from 5-4 to pip the Texans to the title. The Texans should be capable of amassing double-digit wins if CJ Stroud can find his rookie season mojo. The Colts are probably the biggest mystery and are currently a sleeper that could awaken if they can get on a roll. The AFC South has the makings of a much more competitive division this time around.

AFC West

Like the AFC South, a tighter race is anticipated out West in 2026. Starting from such a low base, the Raiders will surely improve on three wins, particularly with new coaching personnel and a noticeably upgraded roster. The Chiefs will be gunning to get back in the playoff mix, and much will depend on the health of Patrick Mahomes as he returns from injury. At the top of the division, the Broncos and Chargers both seem primed to return to the postseason again, although their number of wins may decline if the Raiders and Chiefs prove to be more solid competition.

NFC East

This is another division where the teams badly adrift in 2025 are anticipated to pick up this year, making it a more competitive group. The Giants and Commanders can legitimately point to injuries as a key factor in their poor showing last year, and both clubs have made strides in improving their rosters this offseason. Elsewhere, thereā€™s a lot of positive noise around the Cowboys that they can push for the playoffs after a couple of seasons treading water. Suddenly, the back-to-back division champion Eagles could be looking over their shoulder. They were unconvincing at times last season, and all eyes will be on new offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo to get a spark from the unit that laboured for much of the last campaign.

NFC North

Thereā€™s little reason to expect anything other than another tight race in the North, with all four teams capable of winning the division. That the Lions went from first to last in 2025, exchanging places with the Bears, tells you everything you need to know about how adjacent the four teams are. On top of that, the Bears won the division despite only going 2-4 against their NFC North rivals. Any final order is conceivable, and itā€™s likely that the gap between top and bottom will amount to five wins or less.

NFC South

Itā€™s hard to see any team either dominating or dropping off a cliff in the NFC South. And mediocrity across the board should result in another close-run division race. Ultimately, it could all come down to coaching. Despite finishing in last place, the Saints had a strong finish last year and could progress further with the promising HC/QB tandem of Kellen Moore and Tyler Shough. The under-achieving Falcons will look to new HC Kevin Stefanski to deliver the goods; and over in Tampa Bay, Todd Bowles needs a fast start to alleviate the pressure he is under. In Carolina, HC Dave Canales deserves huge credit for rebuilding the Panthers. Finishing 8-9, thereā€™s still work to be done but the team appears to be in safe hands.

NFC West

Embed from Getty Images

The drag effect of the Cardinals on the overall competitiveness of the NFC West cannot be overstated. Consequently, the gap between first and last place is almost certainly going to be vast. The talent-laden Rams are all-in for a Super Bowl tilt, and the reigning champion Seahawks will be doing their utmost to hold onto the crown. The 49ers are a fascinating team heading into 2026. They faced a soft schedule in 2025 but also overcame devastating injuries to achieve a highly commendable 12-5 record, followed by a road win in the playoffs. Whether they can keep pace once again with the Rams and Seahawks is up for debate. If they canā€™t, then this division could become the NFC equivalent of the AFC East.

Competitive Division Rankings:

  1. NFC North
  2. NFC East
  3. NFC South
  4. AFC North
  5. AFC South
  6. AFC West
  7. NFC West
  8. AFC East

PAUL GOULD

NFL ANALYST

A freelance writer and editor based in Cambridgeshire, Paul has avidly followed the NFL since the late 1980ā€™s and spends much of his spare time wondering if heā€™ll ever see the Raiders play in a Super Bowl again.

Rated 5 out of 5