Sleepers and Seattle - Which unsung teams could emulate the Seahawks Super Bowl run?

By Paul Gould

It’s fair to say that the Seattle Seahawks went under the radar as a pre-season pick to win the Super Bowl last year. Having failed to make the playoffs in the 2024/5 season despite posting a 10-7 record, they entered Week 1 with +6000 odds (60/1) to win the big game – the longest for an eventual title winner since the Patriots triumphed in 2001.

So, who could be the Seahawks of 2026/7?

NFC North Candidates

The closest matching profile is a team that posted a winning record the previous season but missed out on January football. Last year, that unfortunate destiny befell the Lions and the Vikings alone, both having finished the season with 9-8 records.

Of those two, the betting market is currently showing considerably more faith in the Lions going all the way than the Vikings. In some circles, Detroit is among the top ten favourites to lift the Lombardi Trophy next February, which rules them out from being a true sleeper (the same applies to the Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs and Cowboys, all of whom have odds of 25/1 or lower). By contrast, the Vikings rank midway or below in most lists and, at 50/1, much closer to the Seahawks’ odds heading into last season.

The reason for this discrepancy is largely down to the QB position. In the Motor City, Jared Goff is the undisputed starter, having established himself as among the league’s elite passers during his tenure with the Lions. Despite missing the playoffs in 2025, he achieved a passer rating above 100 for the second consecutive season, threw more than 30 touchdowns for the third year in a row, and had eight interceptions, four fewer than in his previous two campaigns.

In Minnesota, the QB situation is far cloudier. Ironically, Sam Darnold was allowed to leave the building and head to Seattle, despite having handsomely guided the Vikings to the playoffs in 2024. Instead, they put their faith in JJ McCarthy as the future of the franchise. This ‘sliding doors’ moment dramatically turned out in favour of Seattle and left Minnesota scrambling for a Plan B.

Enter, free agent acquisition Kyler Murray to compete with McCarthy for the starting job. Early indications are that Murray is winning that race, although he is widely considered to be a ‘bridge’ quarterback until a better long-term option can be found. In recent years, Murray has had problems staying healthy and, although he has shown flashes of brilliance and adds a further dimension to the offence with his running ability, his career has been dogged by inconsistency and questions about his physical stature.

Aside from the QB position, the Vikings offence has talent and depth across the board, and it will be up to highly regarded head coach Kevin O’Connell to get the best out of this group. The defence, under the masterful guidance of Brian Flores, is stellar. They ranked 5th overall in 2025 and 3rd in yards allowed, rubbing shoulders with the Super Bowl winning unit boasted by Seattle.

And so, given expectation levels and their squad profiles, the Vikings appear to fit the mould of last year’s Seahawks much more than the Lions. Minnesota resides in a stacked NFC North, but Seattle faced a similar challenge in 2025, pitted against the Rams and 49ers in the West.

Indianapolis Renaissance? Tampa Bay Bounceback?

Elsewhere, other teams that fell below the .500 mark last year but have similar Super Bowl-winning odds as the Seahawks did are the Indianapolis Colts (65/1), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (50/1), Washington Commanders (65/1) and New York Giants (70/1). Whilst their Super Bowl prospects appear at best to be on a par with the Vikings and certainly lower than the Lions, there’s a case to be made for each falling into the sleeper category.

The Colts are the most enigmatic of the quartet. Entering Week 12 off a bye with an 8-2 record that nobody had predicted, upstart Indy had every neutral rooting for them to make the postseason. Alas, they succumbed in overtime against the defending champion Chiefs and it all fell apart from there. Remaining winless for the rest of the campaign, the Colts also lost QB Daniel Jones to a serious leg injury in Week 14.

This collapse, coupled with an expensive trade for Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner which cost them their first-round draft picks in 2026 and 2027, has dampened expectations for the season ahead. But there is talent on the roster, most notably RB Jonathan Taylor and WR Michael Pittman Jnr on offence, and DT DeForest Buckner and CB Kenny Moore II on the other side of the ball.

If Jones can fully recover and hit the heights he achieved in the first half of last season, the Colts could be a more sustainable surprise package this time around.

Tampa Bay’s 2025 season trajectory was similar to the Colts, although not quite as stark. The Buccaneers stumbled from 6-2 to 8-9, beating only the hapless Cardinals down the stretch. Despite a final week win against the Panthers, it wasn’t enough to leapfrog Carolina and win the NFC South.

Injuries were largely responsible for Tampa’s demise, but other factors contributed. Uncharacteristically, the defence struggled, and the coaching staff led by HC Todd Bowles received heavy criticism for their approach. Several assistant coaches were fired in the aftermath, but Bowles remains in place although under huge pressure to turn things around in 2026.

The nucleus of the team remains strong, however, and the defensive roster has been retooled in the offseason to address a lack of pass rush. In a perennially open division, a Buccaneers resurgence next season cannot be ruled out.

The Return of Daniels in DC

Washington fell one game short of taking the sleeper to Super Bowl journey in 2024 with rookie QB Jayden Daniels setting the league alight. Unfortunately, the Commanders slumped to a 5-12 record last year in a season derailed by serious injuries to key players, including Daniels.

The return of their star QB and an improved performance from a defence overhauled through the draft and free agency should combine to make the Commanders competitive once again in the NFC East and possibly put them in contention for a playoff berth.

Battling Washington for supremacy in this division will be the New York Giants, or at least the Big Blue faithful hope as much. For the first time in a long while, optimism is growing that the Giants can make a push for the playoffs.

New York has quietly assembled a roster studded with young talent over the past couple of years but without finding the formula to convert potential into success.

A significant missing piece has been an experienced head coach with a track record of winning. With the hiring of John Harbaugh, following his surprising exit from Baltimore, the Giants have filled that void.

However, it feels as though the rebuild is not yet complete and it may be that the sleeping Giants must endure another year of slumber before they can make the leap to the postseason.

Sleepers to Seattle Rankings:

  1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  2. Washington Commanders
  3. Minnesota Vikings
  4. Indianapolis Colts
  5. New York Giants

PAUL GOULD

NFL ANALYST

A freelance writer and editor based in Cambridgeshire, Paul has avidly followed the NFL since the late 1980’s and spends much of his spare time wondering if he’ll ever see the Raiders play in a Super Bowl again.

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