conference preview 2021: PAC-12

By Simon Carroll

A team-by-team analysis of the PAC-12, the season ahead and final standings predictions.

NORTH

1. Oregon Ducks

PAC 12

Head Coach Mario Cristobal gears up for a run at a third consecutive PAC-12 title, and despite some uncertainty at quarterback, has the Ducks well positioned to three-peat. A strong recruiting class – ranked sixth in the nation – comes in to bolster an already talented roster, and hopefully help replace some departing talent.

Known for exotic, explosive offenses, it is the other side of the ball that you will find their star man. Edge rusher Kayvon Thibodeaux enters his (second) sophomore season ready to set the PAC-12 alight; in twenty collegiate games he has recorded 12 sacks and 23.5 tackles for a loss, and those numbers are expected to skyrocket this year. The first team All-American will be joined by six other returning starters in DC Tim DeRuyter’s first season at the helm.

Offensive Coordinator Joe Moorhead may look to lean on the ground game as Oregon bleeds in a new quarterback. CJ Verdell & Travis Dye return to offer a formidable running back tandem, whilst graduate transfer Anthony Brown likely sees off freshmen Jay Butterfiled and Ty Thompson to start under center. The former Boston College QB looked dangerous in a limited capacity last season, and his ability to hit the ground running may be the difference between a strong season and a tilt at the College Football Playoffs. If he strikes up a rapport with wide receiver Devon Williams, watch out.

The schedule is kind – even an early daunting trip to Columbus to face Ohio State is sandwiched between home games against Fresno State and Stony Brook. The division decider will likely come the first weekend in November when they travel to Washington, and despite being on the road should have enough to see off the Huskies. This could be a season to remember in Eugene.

Prediction: 11-1, Division Winners, PAC-12 Champions

2. Washington Huskies

PAC 12

A COVID-shortened 3-1 season last year doesn’t tell us much about Head Coach Jimmy Lake, but nobody could deny his first recruiting cycle was impressive. All eyes will be on the quarterback position, where incumbent Dylan Morris will be pushed for the starting job by 5 star freshman Sam Huard. Huard followed in his father’s footsteps by heading to Husky stadium, and fans will be clamouring for the young gunslinger should Morris look anything other than assured under center.

Lake sees the majority of starters return on defense, and this unit – that was in the top thirty in college football last year – stands to be even better. Elijah Molden’s departure to the NFL does leave a hole in an undefined secondary but the front seven is a match for any in the PAC-12, and knows how to create turnovers.

The schedule is eerily similar to Oregon’s, but they do get to play an inferior Big 10 team in September in Michigan. Arizona State may provide a sneaky tough test the week after the big game against the Ducks, but other than that The Huskies have every right to be confident in challenging for the division this season.

Prediction: 10-2

3. California Golden Bears

CFB UK TV Week 5

2020 was a lost season for Cal, with just one win from four games. But like many programs, they will hope to bounce back from last year’s extraordinary circumstances; Head Coach Justin Wilcox brought two winning seasons the two years prior, and there’s definite potential to break .500 in 2021.

The Golden Bears bring back pretty much all of their starters on offense. Whilst that might not please some fans who could point out this unit’s poor stats the last few years, there are mitigating circumstances this time; Bill Musgrave will have had a full offseason to install his offense and work with talented signal-caller Chase Garbers, and there’s some talented weapons at the QB’s disposal in receiver Jeremiah Hunter and tight end pair Collin Moore and Jermaine Terry.

Defensively, things aren’t as rosy, with some turnover in the secondary. Linebacker Kuony Deng resisted the NFL to return for one more year and should lead this unit, which will rely on all of Wilcox’s savvy if it is to compete in the PAC-12 North.

Predicting how Cal will fare is tricky as it’s hard to define how they respond to a testing 2020. The schedule gives them some killer road games against the big teams in their own division, as well as their rival neighbours (they travel to Washington, Oregon, Stanford and UCLA). The out of conference slate is much kinder and they should be able to claim third in the North.

Prediction: 7-5

4. Stanford Cardinal

Recent seasons have been testing for Stanford, and whilst they are far from a floundering program they haven’t been dealt the kindest hand ahead of the 2021 season. The Cardinal have question marks at quarterback and some big shoes on the offensive line to fill for stars departed to the NFL. David Shaw is an experienced coach and a keen developer of talent, but both Drake Nugent (C) and Myles Hinton (RT) are going to be tested in their first years as starters.

The defense is an even bigger concern. This unit struggled in almost every aspect last year, giving up huge chunk plays and failing to get off the field on key downs. Hopes are high for linebacker Ricky Miezan, but can he stay on the field? Injury has limited him to just three games in two years, a common theme for Stanford who are thin in proven talent at every position in the front seven.

The schedule offers no respite; an early trip to USC, Oregon & ASU back to back in October, and Notre Dame to round out the year. Shaw will get as much as he can from this team, and might even steal an unlikely win or two against powerhouse opponents. But expecting anything more than a winning season and a bowl appearance – in 2021 – is probably asking too much.

Prediction: 7-5

5. Oregon State Beavers

PAC 12

Corvallis is a hard place to win football games. Just an hour North on the I-5 from Autzen Stadium and the Oregon Ducks, with their fancy uniforms and jaw-dropping facilities, makes recruiting in-state talent a nightmare. Head Coach Jonathan Smith will attest to that, pulling in the number 109 ranked class this past year. For a coach entering year four with a 9-22 record, that doesn’t bode well for job security.

Yet the Beavs have it in them to cause an upset, as Oregon will attest to last year. If they are to have any hope of getting to a bowl game, they’ll need incoming transfer Deshaun Fenwick to pick up the mantle that Jermar Jefferson left behind. The former Gamecock has plenty of tread on his tyres after less than 100 carries for South Carolina, but produced a healthy 5.5 yards per tote. Behind one of the stronger offensive lines in the conference, Smith will pin his hopes on the run game to save his skin.

Defensively, things look fragile. As well as losing Hamilcar Rashed to the NFL, key D-Line pieces Evan Bennett (Fresno State), Jordan Whittley (Michigan) have both transferred out, along with corner Kaleb Hayes (BYU). They already struggled against the run and these losses won’t help. The linebacker corps will need to be as good as advertised if they are to keep the score low enough for this run-based offense to compete.

Oregon could very well beat Purdue in their season opener, but you also wouldn’t be surprised if they lost to Idaho two weeks later. The lack of consistency from The Beavers make them fascinating and frustrating all in one go. Would five wins save Smith’s job? Even that number might be out of reach.

Prediction: 4-8

6. Washington State Cougars

UK TV Week 3

The comedown from the Mike Leach era was inevitable, and new Head Coach Nick Rolovich would have his fair share of adversity in 2020. The problem is, four games is both too little to judge his performance, but also not enough for him to appreciate the task ahead. Things could get worse in Pullman before they get better.

This time last year, people were getting excited for Jayden de Laura in ‘The Pirate’s’ air raid offense. Twelve months later, Rolovich brings in the embattled Jarrett Guarantano from Tennessee to compete with him for the starting QB job, in a completely different system. Whoever wins the battle will lean on receiver CJ Moore heavily. As with the previous regime, the transfer portal was used heavily to bolster the offense. Blending this talent together quickly will be crucial for a bounce back in 2021.

Things look more settled on defense, with the majority of starters returning. Considering how bad this unit was in 2020, that might not be exactly music to the ears of Wazzu fans. The secondary looks to take the next step, with Derrick Langford and Jaylen Watson set to improve on the outside. Safety Daniel Isom looked a potential star in his second season after making the leap from Northern Illinois. If this team gets into shootouts, this back end will be the difference between winning a handful of games or propping up the division.

The Cougars have a mean conference schedule, facing probably the three best teams from the South division in USC, Utah and Arizona State. They also have a tricky out of conference matchup against BYU on the slate. Another pass may be needed for Rolovich and his staff before we can truly tell the direction this program is headed.

Prediction: 3-9

SOUTH

1. USC Trojans

PAC 12

Is this finally THE year for Clay Helton? The stars seem to have aligned for USC to make a serious run at their first PAC-12 Championship since Helton last won it in his second full season in charge in 2017. Remarkably, that conference win remains their only one since Pete Carroll was on the sidelines. Trojans fans won’t accept anything less than another title game considering the talent that will don the famous cardinal and gold…

The offense looks high-powered, with Kedon Slovis entering his Junior year primed to make a big leap. He has the tools to do so, with standout receivers Bru McCoy and Drake London being joined by speedy freshman Michael Jackson. That trio of weapons will be backed up by a revamped ground attack featuring incoming transfer Keaontay Ingram from Texas.

A stacked secondary, further boosted by transfer portal additions, looks to be the leading unit on defense But they have the penetration up front in Drake Jackson and Tuli Tuipulotu to give PAC-12 offenses nightmares everywhere they turn. A major step up looks inevitable in defensive coordinator Todd Orlando’s second season.

The schedule is as clean as it gets for USC, who avoid both Oregon and Washington in cross-conference play. They could feasibly be 6-0 before they take on Notre Dame (after a nice bye week). With just a tricky trip to Tempe and the usual battle of LA down the stretch, ten wins is more than achievable for The Trojans. A shot at the playoffs might just be out of reach, but they’ll be a tough test for any team in the nation.

Prediction: 11-1, Division Winners

2. Arizona State Sun Devils

PAC 12

If any team can derail the Trojans, it’s ASU. Herm Edwards’ success at the college level is still surprising, and his fourth season at Sun Devil Stadium might be his best shot to bring home a PAC-12 Championship to Tempe.

The offense, already formidable from last year, looks set to be even better in 2021. Another offseason of maturity for Jayden Daniels should see him really fulfill his talent as a Junior, and with possibly the conference’s best o-line in front of him he has every chance to be the conference’s top QB. The defense returns nine starters from last season, but will hope their front seven improve against the run. On the back end, you won’t find many better corner pairings in the conference than Chase Lucas and Jack Jones.

Despite being USC’s equal, they have a much tougher schedule. They host the Trojans which helps, but road games against UCLA, Utah and Washington look awkward. If they can get through October clean, they have a real shot at taking the South.

The Sun Devils do face potential sanctions following allegations staff disregarded NCAA rules regarding COVID-19 during prospect visits, something Edwards will be very keen to make sure doesn’t affect the program’s performances on the field.

Prediction: 10-2

3. Utah Utes

PAC 12

Despite all the attention being focused on USC and Arizona State, Utah remains a strong program and will be a dark horse in the battle for the PAC-12 South. Whilst they’re not at the levels of the talent-rich team that reached the 2019 title game, they still have enough depth to cause anyone in the conference a problem.

All eyes will be on Charlie Brewer following the QB’s transfer from Baylor. With 87 total TD’s in his back pocket already in his collegiate career, expect him to hit the ground running in Andy Ludwig’s flexible offense. Brewer will lean on some established receiving talent, but we could be in line to see plenty of two-tight end formations with Brant Kuithe and Cole Fotheringham.

Utah are perennially tough in both trenches, and the same should apply in 2021 – particularly on defense. The Polynesian trio of Mika Tafua, Viane Moala and Hauati Pututau have experience and will need to be at their best to mitigate a young secondary, considered the weakness on this roster.

Utah have won nine ‘Holy Wars’ in a row, and will likely handle BYU again in what is the key game in a soft out-of-conference schedule. Things get trickier in conference play with USC and ASU back to back, whilst the Utes also host Oregon in November. If they’re able to control the lines of scrimmage against the Trojans and Sun Devils, they are very much capable of stealing this division.

Prediction: 9-3

4. UCLA Bruins

PAC 12

After going 3-4 in his third season with the Bruins, Chip Kelly will begin to feel the heat if there isn’t a step up in 2021. To be fair to Kelly, who is considered PAC-12 royalty due to his Oregon days a decade ago, this team competed like hell for him last year, with heartbreaking losses to Oregon, Stanford and arch rivals USC bringing a total points deficit of just eight.

Key to The Bruins taking a big step this season will be Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and whether he can rid himself of the inconsistencies that have stopped the dual threat QB from flourishing in an offense that – from the outside – would seem tailor-made for him. DTR loses a dynamic backfield threat in Demetric Felton, but should have a more traditional ground game to lean on in transfer Zach Charbonnet, who has a lot to prove after his limited role in Michigan the last two years.

Defensive coordinator Jerry Azzinaro will expect much better from a defense that gave up 187 points in their four losses last year. With ten returning starters they at least bring back consistency, experience, and a familiarity with the scheme – something that might have been lost in last year’s COVID-disrupted campaign. They lose Osa Odighizuwa but the front seven should still be stout – it’s the secondary that will need to see growth from the likes of Jay Shaw and Mo Osling if they are to make a bowl game this year.

Hosting LSU is an early litmus test of how competitive this program will be in 2021. Outside of that, they have it tough with both Oregon and Washington on the schedule. But respectability is within reach in the PAC-12, and if they could somehow turn over USC then Kelly’s seat may just get a little cooler. Don’t bank on it though – The Trojans have taken five out of the last six meetings with UCLA.

Prediction: 7-5

5. Colorado Buffaloes

This might seem a little low for avid PAC-12 observers who will remember the Buffs going 4-2 last year in Karl Dorrell’s first season in charge. A disturbing 55-23 shellacking by Texas in the Alamo Bowl will have tempered the optimism in Boulder a touch, and in a tough division Colorado may struggle to match the momentum off the field with the results on it.

The loss of QB Sam Noyer to Oregon State was counterbalanced with the arrival of JT Shrout from Tennessee. He looks set to win the starting job ahead of Brendon Lewis, who had just ten passing attempts for the Buffaloes last year. This inexperience will mean huge pressure on a run game to bear the weight of this offense. Fortunately they look to have a star in sophomore Jarek Broussard, who averaged almost six yards a carry last year.

The defense still has some talent left from former head coach Mel Tucker’s ability to recruit, but they shipped points at an alarming rate in 2020 and fell apart down the stretch. The secondary might see some significant changes, with freshman pair Christian Gonzalez and Trusstin Oliver both expected to see significant game time. Without any key talent to hang their hat on, it feels like Folsom Field will see it’s fair share of shootouts in 2021.

A brutal non-conference schedule sees Colorado play Texas A&M at Mile High Stadium and host Minnesota before they roll straight into games against Arizona State and USC. Only Arizona and Oregon State offer games on this slate that fans would consider ‘bankers’, and it could be a lean season in the win column for this program despite them trending in the right direction.

Prediction: 3-9

6. Arizona Wildcats

PAC 12

The hiring of Jedd Fisch this offseason seemed somewhat bizarre, but the well-travelled offensive NFL coach has already had an impact in Tuscon, despite never having been a head coach at the college level outside of an interim stint at UCLA. Fisch had spearheaded an unlikely recruiting campaign that has found them having the current 46th best class of 2022, but also seen them suspend two assistants for breaching rules.

Nobody expects immediate results for a program that has lost it’s last twelve games and completely fallen apart under previous HC Kevin Sumlin. ‘Fisching’ a little, the Wildcats have brought in two transfer QB’s (Gunner Cruz, Washington State, & Jordan McCloud, USF) to compete with freshman Will Plummer for the job. They have some experience to help out whoever ends up QB1 at receiver, even if the group is lacking that x-factor as a whole. Michael Wiley is going to get a whole lot of carries as Fisch tries to squeeze production from anywhere he can.

If the offense lacks star power, then the defense is in dire straits. And Fisch knows it, working his charm to bring over no less than six transfers on that side of the ball. New coordinator Don Brown will lean on his vast experience to patch together a working unit that can compete on this side of the football. With next to no pass rush last year, the onus will be on Jalen Harris to step up and offer the penetration off the edge.

The high energy and offensive wizardry Fisch brings to the table might see them get off to a better start than anticipated, but once conference play starts it’s very difficult to see where this team finds a win. Wildcat fans should be content in the knowledge that, in year one of a total rebuild, the win-loss record really means very little. And if their new coaching staff can continue to surprise in talent acquisition, better days will be ahead.

Prediction: 2-10

Mock Draft

SIMON CARROLL

HEAD OF CFB/NFL DRAFT CONTENT

PREVIOUSLY THE FOUNDER OF NFL DRAFT UK, SIMON HAS BEEN COVERING COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND THE NFL DRAFT SINCE 2009. BASED IN MANCHESTER, SIMON IS ALSO CO-CREATOR & WEEKLY GUEST OF THE COLLAPSING POCKET PODCAST.

5/5