CFB: Notre Dame Fighting Irish Week 5 Preview
By Stiofán Mac Fhilib
A make-or-break week beckons for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. A second loss on top of the defeat suffered to NIU, would effectively end playoff hopes. So, there will be some nerves jangling when Louisville arrive in South Bend.
Looking Back at Last Week
Heading into Miami (OH)’s visit to Notre Dame Stadium, I listed three key outcomes for the Irish: a win, avoiding serious injuries, and Riley Leonard improving in the passing game. In the moment it often felt frustrating for ND fans as the team could never quite put the game out of the visitors’ reach, despite never being in actual danger of losing. But overall, the Irish ticked all three boxes as they move on to the biggest home game of the season.
As Notre Dame got off to a slow start, with two punts, a muffed punt return and a blocked FG that saw them trail 3-0 five minutes into the second quarter, they leaned on their strengths: mixing up the run game between the RBs and a healthy Riley Leonard. The former had 127 yards between them, while Leonard rushed for 143 and 2 TDs, including the 50-yard run on 4th and 1 to seal the 28-3 win with just over five minutes remaining.
Immediately after the two-minute timeout the Irish had a first down on the RedHawks’ 23-yard line but, perhaps out of respect for the opponent’s Head Coach and former ND assistant, Chuck Martin, they ran up the middle three times to run out the clock. Not the ideal finish for those who took the over, and would have collected their winnings had ND even kicked a FG to take their points tally into the thirties!
Leonard had an up and down afternoon, but he showed why Marcus Freeman brought him to South Bend last Winter. When healthy enough to run, he is a huge threat to defenses, especially on read option plays. Even when handing it off, his running threat alone was enough to freeze some of the Miami (OH) back seven and assist the RBs.
His passing was frustratingly inconsistent, with several, easy, short throws off target. But that said, he did start to take more deep shots, trusted his pocket more and went through his progressions better. The 38-yard TD pass to Beaux Collins was the obvious highlight but he had three other deep passes draw pass interference calls, including what would have been a long TD to Mitchell. Certainly, some very welcome – and much needed – progress on that front.
The defense had only given up one TD per game in its first three outings, and went one better against the RedHawks, holding them to just one FG. The visitors only made it into the red zone on three occasions, but the Irish had a timely first quarter interception, and a sack that forced a long, blocked FG attempt. The run defense still looked vulnerable on occasion but the Irish severely limited big plays.
Punter James Rendell had by far his best game to date, flipping the field on several occasions. The FG unit, however, saw its third blocked attempt of the season, and ST coach, Marty Biagi, has plenty to work on before it costs Notre Dame in a key moment. Again.
The Week Ahead
Louisville Cardinals (Notre Dame Stadium); 3.30pm EST; 8.30pm IST/BSTST
Jeff Brohm returned to his alma mater in 2023 and, with a lot of help from the transfer portal, was able to have a successful first season in Louisville, with ten wins and an ACC conference title game appearance. And, as Notre Dame fans will remember only too well, a 33-20 home win over the Irish.
The Cardinals have started 3-0 this year with home wins over an FCS opponent, a recent FCS-turned-FBS team, and ACC rivals, Georgia Tech. With over 40 transfer players coming in, they are among the favourites to reach another conference title game, especially given the early season form of last year’s ACC champions, FSU.
On offense Texas Tech transfer QB, Tyler Shough, has plenty of speedy skill position weapons to choose from, and has generated a host of explosive plays so far. A 68.4% completion rate with 8 TDs and 0 INTs is impressive, but he has yet to face a defense as strong as Notre Dame’s. The Irish have so far held four QBs to an average completion rate of 42.7%, the lowest in college football.
Louisville’s starting RB Maurice Turner, has an ankle injury and is unlikely to feature. Their top transfer WR Caullin Lacy, from South Alabama, broke his collarbone in pre-season but may return this week. Their OL features a number of transfers, and they are currently rotating the RT spot, which has been a relative weakness. A thought that may bring a smile to Irish DE Boubacar Traore’s face.
The Cardinals struggled to run the ball against Georgia Tech and a similar outcome against ND could scupper their hopes of victory. They will need explosive plays, likely in the passing game, against one of the top pass defenses in all of college football.
Defensively they have Ashton Gillotte at DE, arguably the best player in that position that ND will face in the regular season. Equally as good against the run as the pass, he had great success last year against the interior of the Irish OL. With last season’s OTs both now in the NFL, he may like his chances against a true freshman Notre Dame LT. How Mike Denbrock schemes for that will have a big say in the outcome.
Louisville will presumably focus on stopping the run, to force Leonard to try to beat them with his arm. Tough enough against a dual threat QB, something that they have struggled with before. Expect more play action passing from the Irish, especially against a secondary that is perhaps the weakness of the Cardinals team, especially if their top CB, Quincy Riley, is out injured after hurting his ankle in the second half last week.
Game Prediction
Notre Dame 34-20 Louisville
The Irish generally have performed well in big games, and a repeat of the intensity they brought to their ‘revenge game’ against USC at home last season would be welcome. The Cardinals may break a big play or two, but Riley Leonard’s legs and arm will reinforce why Freeman pursued him to come to Notre Dame.
Where to Watch
Sky Sports NFL (Channel 408 on Sky); coverage starts at 8.30pm IST/BST
Peacock (in the USA)
Playoff Picture
Tennessee and Michigan had important conference wins last week, and Utah reinforced their pre-season status as one of the top Big 12 teams in a week where Kansas State lost to a rising BYU team. Notre Dame fans meanwhile watched Northern Illinois lose their first MAC game, against Buffalo; not ideal for the Irish strength of schedule.
Two of the Big 12 pre-season favourites, Kansas State and Oklahoma State, both already with one loss in-conference, face off in what could be a conference title game elimination decider for the loser. But the undisputed big game is in Tuscaloosa, AL, where Kirby Smart returns with his #2 Bulldogs to give Kalen DeBoer his first massive test as #4 Alabama head coach. An early Sunday morning kickoff for Irish and British fans but one well worth staying up for over here.
STIOFÁN MAC FHILIB
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYST
A VERY LONG-DISTANCE SUBWAY ALUMNUS OF NOTRE DAME, COUNTY ANTRIM-BASED STIOFÁN HAS BEEN A FAN OF THE FIGHTING IRISH SINCE 2000. FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @SMACFHILIB.