Notre Dame Fighting Irish Preview: Orange Bowl

By Stiofán Mac Fhilib

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have one game to navigate in order to earn a place in this season’s National Title game. Stiofán Mac Fhilib looks ahead to this evening’s Orange Bowl battle between the Irish and Penn State.

Where and When

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The #5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish face the #4 Penn State Nittany Lions in the Orange Bowl at the Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, FL, on Thursday, January 9th, at 7.30pm ET/12.30am UK. The game is being broadcast by ESPN, and in the UK you can watch on Sky Sports NFL (channel 408).

History makers

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Marcus Freeman and his Notre Dame team made history in New Orleans last week when the Irish won their first New Year’s Six bowl game in 31 years, taking down the SEC Champions, #2 Georgia, 23-10 in the Sugar Bowl. It was a first ever victory for ND over the Bulldogs – they now trail them 1-3 all-time – and it saw their head coach move to 3-0 in his career against the SEC. 

Against the best defense Notre Dame had come up against all year, it took a perfect exhibition of Freeman’s oft-mentioned ‘complimentary football’ to grind out a momentous and hugely deserved win. 

The Georgia DL caused the Irish major problems in the passing game. Riley Leonard had no time to think about letting deep shots develop and his 15 completions went for just 90 yards. They also struggled running the ball with Love and Price in the first quarter, until OC Mike Denbrock began to call Leonard’s number in the run game. This was one of the many examples of how all three phases of the game complimented one another in the victory. 

The Irish defense had done their job forcing a key fumble inside the ND red zone and holding the Bulldogs to three points in the first 20 minutes. Then as soon as Georgia got their FG, Leonard ran for 32 yards to put the Irish in position to level matters. 

In the final two minutes of the first half Leonard had another pair of 10+ yard carries to set up ‘Money Mitch’ Jeter’s second 40+ yard FG, which gave Notre Dame a lead it would never relinquish. One play later DE, RJ Oben, a consensus disappointment since his transfer from Duke, make the biggest play of his Irish career, with a strip sack of Stockton that ND recovered inside the red zone. One play after that, Leonard hit Beaux Collins on a 13-yard slant pass and Notre Dame had a 13-3 lead heading into the break. 

When Jayden Harrison returned the opening kick-off of the second half 98 yards it seemed an awful long way back for the SEC champs. Stockton exploited a blown coverage to bring the Bulldogs back within ten, and when the Irish were stopped on fourth down on the next drive, the game’s momentum shifted and the door to a Georgia comeback opened. Only to be promptly slammed back in their faces by Al Golden’s defense. Georgia had a 75% success rate on fourth down conversions heading into the Sugar Bowl. They would go 0-3 on the day. 

Yet again the Irish offense played its complimentary role, as the running game began to wear down the Bulldogs. Jeter kicked his third 40+ yard FG and when Georgia again were stopped on fourth down, the Irish had the ball on their own 9 with 9:18 remaining. The subsequent drive of one pass and eleven runs, for 41 vital yards, took over seven minutes off the clock, allowing ND to punt from midfield at the two-minute timeout. When it mattered most, the Irish OL wore down their opponents and drained their will, while their own head coach outsmarted (pun fully intended) his illustrious counterpart. 

The game ended with another Irish backup taking advantage of the additional playing time afforded by Notre Dame’s long injury list, as DT, Donny Hinish, sacked Stockton on fourth down to wrap up an impressive and long-awaited victory for Irish fans.

Nobody remembers the semi-final losers

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Notre Dame have recent experience from this very season of what it is like to win a massive, much anticipated and much hyped game in SEC country against a big-name SEC team. They know exactly how enjoyable that feels. And they also know exactly how it feels when you underperform one week later and lose a game you were favoured to win. 

Now, Penn State are a way better opponent than Northern Illinois in every facet of the game, so that ought to help focus Irish player minds very rapidly on the task at hand. But if there is a worry about this ND team, it is the cumulative effect of all the injuries, on top of the longest season the players have ever had. At some point will they just run out of steam, and perhaps make too many mental mistakes that prove costly against an evenly matched opponent? 

This will be the biggest challenge yet for Marcus Freeman in the biggest game of his three-year head coaching career. He is going for his tenth consecutive win in a game against a ranked opponent. He is 6-0 so far this season in such matchups. His ability to get his team mentally prepared and ready to play well for four quarters, coming off two days’ less rest than the Nittany Lions, will be critical to Irish success. 

Penn State will arrive with the best skill position player ND have faced so far this season. Tight End, Tyler Warren, the Mackey Award winner for the best TE in college football, is a threat as a pass catcher and a runner, not only on jet sweeps but also from the wildcat formation. He is a tough, punishing runner, and the Nittany Lions’ gameplan will have to feature him strongly. 

QB Drew Allar is one of the best to play Notre Dame this season, and if not pressured, he has the ability to hurt the Irish through the air. But if Golden’s guys CAN get to him, early and often, he not only will struggle, but is also prone to costly interceptions. Like ND, they also have an impressive RB tandem, and unlike the Irish, both Allen and Singleton are pretty healthy. 

Their defense is fast and statistically very good, though games against better opponents have perhaps highlighted their more vulnerable areas. DE, Abdul Carter, a consensus All-American is a stud but an injured one. The interior of the Nittany Lions’ DL can be weak against the run, but expect Notre Dame to run at Carter early, to try to ascertain just how banged up he really is. 

Being able to run consistently is key, as always, for the Irish. Doing that successfully brings the play-action passing game into play, and if Leonard can have success there, then ND will do very well. Expect James Franklin to sell out against the run, including stopping Leonard. Doing that is vital for the Nittany Lions. But many others have tried similarly, and rarely with much success.

Franklin has often been knocked for not winning the biggest games when Penn State is underdog. They do say no one remembers semi-final losers, but if he loses this one, against a regional rival, Nittany Lions fans will certainly not forget so quickly.

In a tight game, special teams can be crucial. Both teams have good kickers, but two things to watch for me are the Penn State punter, who has had a punt blocked recently, and their kickoffs, which often result in returns. Jayden Harrison’s ears may prick up at this news.

Game Prediction

Notre Dame 24-20 Penn State

This will have echoes of the Georgia game as two strong defenses slow down the opposition most of the time. But ND’s ability to run the football consistently, and having the better head coach and coordinators, will ultimately prove the difference, and see the Irish advance to Atlanta.

STIOFÁN MAC FHILIB

COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYST

A VERY LONG-DISTANCE SUBWAY ALUMNUS OF NOTRE DAME, COUNTY ANTRIM-BASED STIOFÁN HAS BEEN A FAN OF THE FIGHTING IRISH SINCE 2000. FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @SMACFHILIB.

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