nfl week 9: four things to keep an eye on

By Tayyib Abu

November football is here! The 2022-23 NFL regular season has made the turn and is on the back nine. The weather is getting colder, but the NFL is only getting hotter. Here are four things to watch this weekend.

Can The Falcons Take Off?

Sporting News

Against all pre-season expectations, the Atlanta Falcons are atop the NFC South. At 4-4, the Falcons have set themselves up nicely for the second half of the season. And this Sunday, Atlanta welcomes the LA Chargers for a big game. 

Atlanta’s success has come from an efficient and effective offense. They are 9th in offensive DVOA and 10th in offensive EPA per play. Head coach Arthur Smith has designed a balanced offense that elevates his personnel. They have averaged 158.1 rushing yards per game, the 5th best mark among all teams. A rotational cast of runners featuring Cordarelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, Marcus Mariota, and Caleb Huntley have all breached 250 individual rushing yards. It is the first time in NFL history that four players have done so.

The Falcons are an excellent running team. Irrespective of personnel, Atlanta is executing team-wide in the run game. The Falcons are 3rd in yards averaged per carry before being close to a tackler. The run game opens up a pandora’s box of options for Atlanta. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is a legitimate running threat and is shining as a dropback passer. With the RPO and play action games, Mariota is playing the best football of his career. Mariota is 8th in EPA per play among quarterbacks. He is decisive and confident. And the good news for Atlanta? Cordarelle Patterson is back from injury and active for this game. 

The Chargers are back from the bye week and need a win. LA is at threat of being cut adrift from the Chiefs in the AFC West. And Brandon Staley’s defense has questions to answer. LA struggled in run defense last year and is 23rd in run-defense DVOA this season. The Chargers are a patchwork defense that has difficulty containing running offenses. The ground game is critical to this game. And if the Falcons establish themselves, they could make it a fourth consecutive home win.

Reunited With An Old Friend

Unbeknownst to many, the Washington Commanders are 4-4. Riverboat Ron Rivera and his team have built some nice momentum over the last month. And now, they welcome Kirk Cousins and the 6-1 Minnesota Vikings. The Commanders can thank a tenacious defense for their recent upturn in form.

In their last three games, the Commanders have surrendered 7, 21, and 16 points in the previous three games. It all starts up front; Washington is 3rd in pressure rate. The Vikings have played five straight games against teams ranked in the 20s for pressure. Washington will get after quarterback Kirk Cousins. Cousins’ stats when pressured on the road are ugly; -0.72 EPA per attempt, 6.2 yards per attempt, and one touchdown to two interceptions.

The Commanders can get pressure, and they can stop the run. Football Outsiders rank the Commanders 2nd in run-defense DVOA. Washington is a physical unit capable of silencing rushing attacks. Yes, Washington’s quarterback situation is far from ideal. They are an impotent offense. But their defense is top-notch. Washington will stress and push this Vikings offense. We will find out just how accurate Minnesota’s 6-1 record is after this one. It could be a rocky afternoon for Cousins in Landover.

Can Zach Wilson Work It Out?

USA Today Sports

The New York Jets welcome the Buffalo Bills in a huge in-state, in-divisional matchup. And all eyes will be on Jets quarterback Zach Wilson. Wilson fell apart spectacularly last Sunday against the New England Patriots. Wilson threw three ugly interceptions as his mental errors arguably cost the Jets a win. Since his return, Wilson has played some appalling football. Wilson is 26th in DYAR, 29th in EPA per play, and 24th in QBR. And he can thank a smaller data set for not being lower. Three touchdowns and five interceptions underline how badly he has played.

And now Wilson must work out how to limit mistakes against a dominant Buffalo Bills defense. The Bills are the most talented and complete defense in the NFL. Everywhere you look, they have stars that can dominate a game. No one is asking Wilson to become Josh Allen, but can he play like a professional quarterback? If Wilson continues to play like a knock-off eBay version of Allen, the Bills will humiliate him.

Coaches can only say so much. Wilson has to figure things out for himself. His naive, amateurish approach to quarterback is holding the Jets back. It is the biggest game in the BYU product’s short career. He needs to change his mindset and accept he is not playing in a second-rate college division anymore.

Now Or Never For The Buccaneers

At 3-5, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers return from the bye week with their season on the line. And they head to SoFi Stadium to take on the LA Rams in a huge game. Tampa’s last game was an ugly defeat to the Carolina Panthers. Over the season, the Bucs have endured considerable trouble on offense. They are 19th in offensive DVOA and 19th in offensive EPA. Tampa’s issues start upfront as their bodge job offensive line is creaking like a rusty turnstile. Tampa’s offensive line is 26th in pass-block success. They are 19th in run-block success. Tampa cannot protect Tom Brady, nor can they run the ball. Add all that to an injury-hit pass-catching corps, and the Bucs’ offense is on its knees. 

The good news for Tampa is that the Rams’ offense is not playing great, either. Last Sunday, LA lost their customary game to the San Francisco 49ers, and their offensive travails continued. LA mustered 223 total offensive yards. It was not a terrible performance; they looked after the ball and did not make errors. The Rams just looked devoid of any creativity or explosive plays. Matthew Stafford averaged 5.7 yards per attempt. The Rams’ offense is not bad or broken; they look shorn of talent. And going up against a 5th-ranked Tampa Bay defense is not an easy task. This game feels like a defensive arm wrestle, and it feels like now or never for Tampa. They lost both games to the Rams last season, and they cannot afford a third straight defeat. At 3-6, the season might be over. At 4-5, they are alive.

TAYYIB ABU

CFB/NFL ANALYST

Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1

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