nfl week 6: four things to keep an eye on
By Tayyib Abu
Week 6 of the 2022-23 NFL season is a big one. Several marquee matchups headline the weekend, and these games could have significant ramifications as the season develops. Here are four things to keep an eye on:
The Bengals and Saints Hit a Junction
If the NFL season were a road trip, the New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals would be at the same junction. At 2-3, both teams need a win, and both have big questions to answer. The Saints outlasted the Seattle Seahawks in a wild game as Taysom Hill turbocharged New Orleans’ run to victory. And the Saints will need Hill to answer the call again, as his team is shorthanded. Wideouts Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry are out, while rookie Chris Olave is still in concussion protocol. With Andy Dalton still under center, the Saints’ passing offense may be non-existent. Therefore, all eyes are on Hill and Alvin Kamara in the running game. Expect New Orleans to use heavy personnel and the power running game with Hill and Kamara’s catching ability to generate offense. The Bengals are one of the better run defenses in the NFL, but it is often difficult to stop Kamara and Hill when they get downhill.
As for the Bengals, their anemic offense hit another low in last Sunday’s defeat to Baltimore. Joe Burrow averaged four air yards per attempt, the lowest of his career. The Bengals’ big-play offense has disappeared. But the Saints’ defensive backfield has surrendered more deep-pass touchdowns than anyone else and allowed a passer rating of 128.1 on deep passes this season. With Marshon Lattimore injured, the Bengals should have chances to electrify their passing attack. The returning Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase should get opportunities.
It is a critical game for both teams. The Saints’ injuries have left them short, but they still have a wildcard on offense. For the Bengals, if they cannot get their passing game going in this one, concerns will rise in Cincinnati. Someone will move past this junction with better horizons; the other will be stuck with nowhere to go.
The Rematch
The Buffalo Bills return to Arrowhead Stadium looking to avenge their heartbreaking playoff loss from last season. The Bills and Chiefs are the best teams in the AFC, and this game could shape the destiny of the AFC. Buffalo routed the Steelers last week, while the Chiefs battled back to defeat the Raiders on Monday Night Football.
The Chiefs hold the home advantage and are the 3rd best offense, per Football Outsiders. Patrick Mahomes is playing a different quarterback style, but he is still highly effective. So far this year, Mahomes has attempted downfield passes just 9% of the time. The Chiefs are now a quick-strike, short, and intermediate passing offense. That has not been detrimental to them; they have matriculated the ball and used Travis Kelce to devastating effect in the red zone.
The key to Buffalo’s defense is getting pressure. Their defensive backfield corralled Mahomes for much of the game in January; Mahomes never attempted a downfield pass in that game. Buffalo’s secondary kept everything in front of them. However, their pass rush failed to get home. Buffalo pressured Mahomes on 40% of his dropbacks but converted that pressure for just two sacks. This game is why Buffalo signed Von Miller.
The future Hall of Famer is thriving as a situational pass rusher. Miller does not play many snaps, but he does not need to. He is 4th in pressures generated, despite being in the 90s for snaps played. Buffalo’s pass-rush stocks are deep. With Boogie Basham, Gregory Rousseau, Ed Oliver, and others, the Bills have the players to get after Mahomes. The Bills are 8th in pass-rush win rate, and if they are to beat Mahomes and the quick passing game, they need to be at their best. Football Outsiders currently rank the Bills 2nd in defensive DVOA. They are a complete unit that needs to play a complete game.
For Buffalo’s offense, it is about marrying the home-run plays with consistent, long offensive drives. In last Sunday’s win over the Steelers, Josh Allen was outstanding on deep passing attempts. The highlight play was the 97-yard touchdown to Gabe Davis. Davis ran a post route, and Allen hit him in stride. Since 2021, Allen has thrown ten completions, four touchdowns, and an EPA of 2.27 on deep post-routes.
Simply put, he is the best deep-ball thrower in the game. The Chiefs gave up big plays to Davante Adams on Monday night and will be on red alert. The Chiefs like to play aggressive zone coverage, and Allen picked them apart in the last game. Will Steve Spagnuolo find a new plan? It is tough. Allen has a 92-passer score against zone coverages.
This is the game of the season so far. The quarterbacks are the best in the world, while the supporting casts are ultra-talented. The rematch the world has waited for is now here.
A Trench Battle In Philadelphia
By kickoff on Sunday night, Philadelphia may be ready to explode. The Phillies are hosting a playoff series for the first time in a decade, and the undefeated Eagles host arch-rivals, the Dallas Cowboys. For all of the x’s and o’s, football is still won up-front in the trenches. And this game is the ultimate showcase for the trenches.
It is a true strength-on-strength matchup as the vaunted Eagles offensive line battles the dominant Dallas pass rush. Pro Football Focus ranks the Eagles’ offensive line as the best in the NFL. The Cowboys lead the NFL in pressures generated, lead the NFL in pass-rush win rate, and are 2nd in pressure rate with four or fewer rushers. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn is blending elements of the Seattle cover 3 defense with hints of the Giants’ pass rush from a decade ago.
The Cowboys mix and shift their defensive front to confuse protections and quarterbacks like no other team. They shift well and use their linebackers to simulate blitzes to mislead the offensive line. Jalen Hurts and Jason Kelce must be in sync, as Dallas will significantly change the pre-snap look. If Dallas gets on top, they could ruin the Eagles’ offense. Watch out for the individual matchup between Micah Parsons and Lane Johnson. Parsons leads all players in pressures, but Johnson is 2nd in pressures allowed. That could well decide this game.
However, one can say the same for the Eagles’ defense. Cooper Rush is one of the worst quarterbacks in EPA in obvious passing situations. Dallas’ formula is to use their run-game to get into manageable situations on 2nd and 3rd down. The Eagles’ interior must combat Zeke Elliott while they must be aware of Tony Pollard’s ability as a receiver out of the backfield. If the Eagles’ defensive line gets Dallas behind the sticks, Rush may find himself in trouble. It is a matchup for the purists in front of a red-hot atmosphere.
Is Russell Wilson Broken?
When Russell Wilson’s contract still has 7 years left on it pic.twitter.com/UjfNvWzWj9
— NFL Hate Memes (@NFLHateMemes) October 7, 2022
Week 6 finishes with a Monday Night Football matchup featuring the LA Chargers and Denver Broncos. After losing last Thursday, the pressure is on Russell Wilson, who needs to deliver. The question is, can Wilson deliver a performance? Wilson is 22nd in EPA per play, 25th in EPA+CPOE, and 24th in QBR; currently, Wilson is a bottom-ten quarterback.
Moreover, another statistic should trouble Wilson and the Broncos; the trademark deep ball is not there anymore. Wilson’s deep ball accuracy has declined every year since 2018. In 2021, he was 18th; presently, Wilson is 21st. He is 24th in accurate throw rate. While other quarterbacks can point to poor circumstances, Wilson can not. The Broncos boast a solid offensive line and good pass-catchers. The arranged marriage between Wilson and Nate Hackett is not working. Wilson is not the quick-strike passer that punctures the short and intermediate areas of the field.
Wilson looks immobile and unable to execute his offense. If Wilson can not do that, his time at the top may be over.
TAYYIB ABU
CFB/NFL ANALYST
Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1