nfl week 3: four things to keep an eye on
By Tayyib Abu
Week 3 of the NFL season got underway on Thursday night as the Cleveland Browns defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers. The rest of the week’s action commences on Sunday – with a bye-less week offering a full slate of games. Here are four things to watch.
Can The Bengals Fix Themselves?
The Cincinnati Bengals are 0-2, and now travel to a buoyant New York Jets side in Week 3. The Bengals lost to the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday, and their offense endured another difficult day. Quarterback Joe Burrow ranks 20th in QBR and 30th in DVOA. He has experienced difficulty in pushing the ball downfield and is facing plenty of pressure in the pocket. Last season, the Bengals were an inefficient offense capable of field-tilting explosive plays. This year, the story is different. Burrow is 1/7 on passes with 20 or more air yards. The big plays are not happening right now, forcing Burrow to panic in the pocket. Burrow is getting pressured on 31% of his dropbacks; that is a relatively middling number. Yet Burrow is getting sacked at a higher rate than anyone else. It is not just an offensive line problem; it is a quarterback problem. And then, one must factor in the rise of Cover 2 being played against Cincinnati.
Burrow took more sacks than anyone against Cover 2 formations last season. In 2021, teams did not play much Cover 2 against the Bengals. Burrow and the Bengals want teams to leave one safety defending the deep field. Last season, Burrow’s Next Gen Stats against single-high coverages were absurd. He led the NFL in EPA, Passer Rating, and CPOE. But to get teams to bring a safety down into the box, an offense needs a functioning running game. The Bengals do not have that, partly because they are a poor running team. They average one yard-per-carry when running against Cover 2 defenses. And there’s another reason behind that. The Bengals love spreading the offensive formation, but they are at a numbers disadvantage in the run game. The run game that Zac Taylor learned under Sean McVay does not coalesce with the spread five-wide shotgun-heavy offense that Burrow likes. It is almost like they are trying to build a plan with two very different playbooks.
These problems are not easy to fix. However, the Bengals ought to fare better against the Jets. Through two games, the Jets rank last in Cover 2 usage. Robert Saleh is a disciple of the Cover 3 Legion of Boom Seattle Seahawks school. The Bengals should win; if they don’t and fall to 0-3, the Bengals may have extreme problems.
Who Is The Best In The East?
The 2-0 Buffalo Bills head to South Florida to take on the 2-0 Miami Dolphins. It is the game of the week, and it will have significant implications in the AFC. The Bills have utterly obliterated their way to a 2-0 record. Buffalo backed up an opening night win with a crushing victory over the Tennessee Titans on Monday Night Football. The cumulative scoreline on those games reads 72-17.
Not only do they boast the best quarterback, but they also have an outrageously talented skill corps and a ferocious defense. And Buffalo loves playing the Miami Dolphins. Last season, in the corresponding fixture, Buffalo trounced Miami in a 35-0 win.
The Dolphins are undefeated, and they have defeated two AFC stalwarts to get there, but this is a jump up in competition. Miami must get their slew of talented playmakers into the game. Next Gen Stats ranked Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle 1st and 3rd in their big-play wide receiver rankings. The duo played a massive role in Miami’s comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens. Mix in Mike Gesicki, the Kyle Juszcyk-like Alec Ingold, and the Dolphins possess the weapons to hit Buffalo.
However, the Bills are playing like an All-Star team. Everywhere you look, there are world-class players. Allen is an alien, built like an AFL Footy Player with an arm like Johnny Unitas. The Wyoming product leads the NFL in QBR and passer score and is the early MVP favorite. Stefon Diggs is a phenom, while Dawson Knox is a quiet sensation. Defensively, the Bills have the best linebacker duo in the game. Matt Milano and Trumaine Edmunds shone on Monday. And then there is Von Miller.
The future Hall of Famer is still the man for the big occasion, and his ability to pressure quarterbacks is uncanny.
The Bills are built to win a championship. Can the Dolphins bloody Buffalo’s nose and announce themselves as contenders?
Here's Jimmy!
Jimmy G back like he Never left pic.twitter.com/UPlNAirRKJ
— Barstool Sports (@barstoolsports) September 18, 2022
In August, Jimmy Garoppolo did not have an offensive playbook. He had to practice on his own and was excluded from team meetings. The San Francisco 49ers did everything they could to move on from Garoppolo, but one ankle break later, Garoppolo is back to save the 49ers.
His first start of the season takes him to Colorado, as the 1-1 Denver Broncos welcome Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers. In a conference with no clear leader, the 49ers are well placed. When Garoppolo has played more than ten regular season games a Niner, the team has reached a Super Bowl and an NFC Championship game.
The Niners’ chances have improved with the former New England Patriot under center. It is a massive point in Garoppolo’s career. He is a free agent after 2022, and a strong season could see him dominate free agency. Not that free agency and contracts will be running through his mind right now. Garoppolo was one throw away from leading San Francisco to a Super Bowl win. He is capable of getting them to the big game.
The NFL is known for stories; Garoppolo’s redemption story starts in earnest in the Mile High City on Sunday night
Are The Giants Fool's Gold?
Are the New York Giants the worst 2-0 team in the NFL? Almost certainly. Are they the worst 2-0 team of recent seasons? Probably. The Giants are 18th in overall DVOA and 19th in passing DVOA. Quarterback Daniel Jones is 28th in QBR and 27th in EPA. The Giants have scratched out two wins over the toothless Tennessee Titans and a lifeless Carolina Panthers squad. Brian Daboll has got this Big Blue squad playing tough, together, and with grit. Nevertheless, the Giants lack top-tier talent, and on Monday night, they host the Dallas Cowboys and the rampant Micah Parsons.
The reigning Defensive Rookie of The Year menaced Joe Burrow last Sunday and threatens to do the same this Monday. It is not just Parsons; the Cowboys’ defense is athletic and intense. Dallas ranks 5th in pass-rush win rate, and they will hurry Jones on Monday. The Giants can win ugly. The team is functioning, and Daboll has created a positive spirit inside the locker room. They will need to scrap another one-score result out if they are to get to 3-0. A challenging, gritty defensive game awaits. If the Giants want to prove themselves, Monday night is the perfect moment to do that.
TAYYIB ABU
CFB/NFL ANALYST
Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1
Feature Image Credit: Adam Glanzman / Getty Images