NFL WEEK 15: FOUR THINGS TO KEEP AN EYE ON

nfl week 1: four things to keep an eye on

By Tayyib Abu

The NFL is still plotting a path towards the playoffs despite the backdrop of Covid chaos and head coaching drama. Week 15 is the first sign of Covid disruption in the 2021 season. The league has moved several games to mitigate the Covid cases hitting teams like the Rams and the Browns. Through the interruptions, the games are going ahead in Week 15, and it is now or never for teams fighting for playoff spots.

With one week left until Christmas, teams are vying to give themselves the gift of January football, while others are trying to gift themselves a top draft pick. The NFL is never boring, and Week 15 will undoubtedly deliver more drama. On and off the field.

Here are four things to watch in Week 15 of the 2021 season…

Return of The Rivalry

In the early 2000s, the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts developed an intense rivalry as Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Dungy, and Bill Belichick headlined enormous games between the two teams. The rivalry simmered as the Colts faded away from competitiveness despite the arrival of Andrew Luck. A solitary AFC Championship game that became known for the Deflategate scandal highlighted the series.

Saturday night offers fans the first semblance of a rivalry reborn as the charging Colts battle the ascending Patriots in the game of the week. Both sides enjoyed a Week 14 bye, so they will arrive into this game as fresh as a team can be in December. And it promises to be a fascinating chess match between two of the best head coaches in the AFC.

The headline statistic that prefaces this game is the following; The Colts are 0-3 when Carson Wentz has thrown an interception in a game. The Patriots are the best-prepared defense in the NFL. In every game they play, New England has a tailor-made plan to nullify the opponent.

It won’t be any different tonight. New England doesn’t operate out of base defenses; they are almost exclusively in sub-packages. That means that the Patriots never line up in a standard 4-3 or 3-4 front; there is always a twist. Moreover, the Patriots are bucking the NFL trend in 2021. Most teams are moving towards the Fangio/Staley philosophy and using two-high safety’s to negate the pass. The Patriots aren’t adhering to this philosophy. New England is one of the teams to lead the league in single-high safety usage, and they use their ‘free’ defender to stack the box.

New England won’t move away from this plan, considering that Colts running back Jonathan Taylor is Indianapolis’ critical offensive weapon. The Colts are 0-6 when Taylor fails to rush for over 100 yards. Frank Reich will be aware of this, and that is why he must continue to script smart first-down plays for Wentz. The Colts love to use misdirection and hard play-action to generate quick throwing windows for Wentz. It’s worked so far as the former Eagle ranks seventh in QBR.

New England will want to take away the running game and force Wentz to throw into tight windows. Patriots corners JC Jackson and Jalen Mills are arguably the best cornerback tandem in the league. Furthermore, the Patriots can blanket a passing attack. They are the only team to own positive DVOA against all pass-catchers.

For the Colts, they must bully the Patriots at the line of scrimmage. New England relies on their linebackers to stay true to the gap assignments in the running game. The Colts’ offensive line can’t just block one player; they must push off the initial defensive front and clear the linebackers to open running lanes.

The Colts will want to win at the line of scrimmage; the Patriots will wish to force them into the passing game. Both teams possess winning records, hoping to punch a ticket to the postseason. A win in this game may go a long way to ensuring January football.

Since 2014-15, the Patriots and Colts have seldom played significant games against one another. It is a huge game. The respective fans of each franchise don’t like each other, and the teams are ready to fight it out in what has all the hallmarks of a titanic chess match. The Colts and Patriots are ready for another tilt.

What Now For The Jaguars?

The Jacksonville Jaguars finally fired Urban Meyer this week. The serial collegiate winner couldn’t find the formula for success in the NFL. After another scandal erupted this week, Meyer couldn’t last. The Jags moved on and sent him packing. Now, offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell picks up the pieces for the second year running.

Bevell took charge after the Lions dismissed the awful Matt Patricia last season. Like Patricia, Meyer had lost the respect of the locker room. There is no turning back from that in professional sports. Teams can be bad, but they can still fight for their head coach. The one-win Detroit Lions are an example of that. Meyer’s Jaguars were the complete antithesis.

Bevell is a good man, and he’s held the respect of locker rooms wherever he’s worked in the NFL. In the first game as the interim head coach of the Lions, Bevell implored his players to go out and have fun, to remember why they play football. It worked as Matthew Stafford cooked the Chicago Bears for four touchdowns and over 400 passing yards.

The Jaguars players have experienced a miserable time under Meyer. It all emerged in the press conferences after the coach got fired. Bevell won’t stray from his philosophy, and he’ll want his players, Trevor Lawrence in particular, to let rip. The other good news for Jacksonville comes from the NFL schedule gods. The Jaguars take on the inept Houston Texans.

It is an opportunity for the Jags players to regroup and move on from Meyer. It is also a chance for Trevor Lawrence to start from scratch and kickstart his NFL career.

The Urban Meyer experience was as disastrous as it got, but it now allows the Jacksonville Jaguars the chance to move on and get back to basics.

Are the Steelers Soft?

Once upon a time, the Pittsburgh Steelers were the laughing stock of the NFL. You may laugh, but it’s true. Teams like the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Colts were the superpowers while the Steelers toiled. The arrival of Chuck Noll, Terry Bradshaw, and the Steel Curtain changed the franchise forever. The Steelers would become a dynasty, a bastion of stability and rugged, gritty football.

In 2021, it feels like the Steelers have lost their DNA. Whisper it quietly, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are soft. Unthinkable and unimaginable for a franchise so familiar with toughness. The Steelers’ interior run defense is the main culprit behind the allegations. Last Thursday, Dalvin Cook gashed Pittsburgh for over 200 yards as Minnesota bested Pittsburgh. That was not a one-off; the Steelers are the 31st ranked run defense in the NFL. Run defense isn’t just about the defensive scheme; it is about desire and physicality. The Steelers don’t have it. And their opponents have it by the bucketload.

The Titans are a flawed team, sporting some significant injuries. However, their intensity and aggression are unmatched. It stems from head coach Mike Vrabel, and it’s filtered its way to his players. The Titans are 9-4, and they routinely dismissed the hapless Jags last week. Tennessee won’t err from their game plan, but they may also look to attack the Steelers through the middle. Derrick Henry’s absence has forced the Titans to move away from the running game in the last few weeks, and while Tennessee will back Ryan Tannehill, they should stress Pittsburgh’s sieve-like run defense.

Both teams are fighting for their playoff lives; the Steelers are on the brink, the Titans are locked in a tight divisional race against a red-hot Colts side, and losing this one is not an option. Defeat may end Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes. It promises to be a ferocious, physical battle. It’s up to the Steelers to meet Tennessee’s intensity. If they don’t, it could be curtains for the team from the Steel City.

The Ailing Ravens Need to Take Flight

Somehow, the Baltimore Ravens are still atop the AFC North. At 8-5, the Ravens are one game ahead of the Browns and Bengals. Despite all the injury issues they’ve suffered, the Ravens have done well to be sitting pretty in the division. This week sees the Ravens take on the Green Bay Packers.

And the headline news for Baltimore is that Lamar Jackosn could miss the game. The former MVP exited the game last week against Cleveland due to an ankle injury. Jackson hasn’t practiced at all this week, and the Ravens could be without their star quarterback.

Truth be told, the Ravens’ offense may not miss Jackson. With or without Jackson, the Ravens’ offense has spluttered all season. Outside of a beatdown on the Chargers, the Ravens have really struggled to create anything on offense.

The key to victory for Baltimore is on defense. Luckily, the Ravens may hold one ace in the pack. Corralling Aaron Rodgers is the most significant ingredient for the Ravens. Baltimore love to blitz. They are one of three NFL teams with a blitz rate above 35%; it is their defensive staple. Wink Martindale won’t change that philosophy for any quarterback. Moreover, in small sample sizes, Aaron Rodgers has found it difficult against the blitz in 2021.

Rodgers’ passer rating of 121.8 against no pressure is the highest in the NFL. That drops to 44.3 when pressured. Historically, Rodgers is one of the great quarterbacks against blitzing teams; Maybe the toe injury is hurting his mobility in the pocket, or he is just picking it up late. Nevertheless, blitzes and high pressure are causing him issues.

The Ravens’ understaffed offense isn’t capable of beating the Packers in a shootout. Baltimore needs to find a way to stifle the Green Bay offense. It is a challenging task for Baltimore. Constantly sending blitzers can tire players out. Moreover, it provides the opposing offense with more pictures to study and diagnose what’s coming. If Rodgers diagnoses quickly, he can torch teams that send pressure.

The Ravens may have to walk a defensive tightrope to pull off the win. A defeat against the NFCs number one seed will pile the pressure on Baltimore in the final stretches of the season. The AFC North could go down to the wire, but it is in Baltimore’s hands. A win over the Packers could change the outlook on the luckless team from the Charm City.

Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1

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