nfl week 12: four things to keep an eye on

By Tayyib Abu

Week 12 of the NFL season started on Thanksgiving Day with three dramatic games. It continues with a full slate of games, and here are four things to watch this weekend.

The Tennessee Titans Are At It Again

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

Quietly, the Tennessee Titans have raced to a 7-3 record. Mike Vrabel’s team is again dumbfounding the critics and making noise in the AFC. Today they host the 6-4 Cincinnati Bengals in a rematch from last year’s AFC Divisional game. The Titans are fresh after playing last Thursday night at Green Bay. Key to their success that night was a stifling defense. Tennessee gave up 17 points and made life difficult for the Packers’ offense all game long.

Moreover, the Titans have not conceded more than 20 points in a game since Week 3. Tennessee’s success starts up front; their front seven is ferocious in run defense. Vrabel’s defense last allowed a 100-yard rushing game back in Week 1. Star defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons is the big cylinder in Tennessee’s engine room; he is 3rd among all defensive tackles with a 44% run-stop win rate. Simmons blows up run plays with venom; he is constantly in the offensive backfield. As a unit, the Titans are 1st in run-stop win rate per ESPN. Simmons is the tone-setter, and the rest of the Titans’ defense follows in violent unison. Fourth-year linebacker David Long JR has impressed. He flows to the ball and is excellent at triggering downhill on inside zone runs. Long JR leads the Titans in total tackles and TFLs and is the 2nd-highest graded linebacker per Pro Football Focus. With Cincinnati’s 9th-ranked run offense coming to town, it feels like a big strength-on-strength matchup. 

Furthermore, the Titans are starting to get healthier in the defensive backfield. For the first time this season, the Titans may have Kevin Byard, Amani Hooker, Roger McCreary, Kristian Fulton, and Elijah Moore all active and fit to play. That may tilt the advantage toward Tennessee, especially with Ja’Marr Chase out injured. Joe Burrow was excellent last Sunday. He threw for four touchdowns and 355 yards against Pittsburgh. Burrow had time in the pocket, and he dissected the Steelers. The Titans must disrupt Burrow. In the last two seasons, whenever the Bengals’ line has had a pass-block win, Burrow has been the best quarterback in passer rating and completion percentage. 

The Titans are the best defense the Bengals have faced in two months. Mike Vrabel will have his squad fired up and ready to bludgeon another AFC team. Quietly, the Titans are making more noise in the mold of their head coach.

What Next For The Zach Wilson-less Jets?

Zach Wilson’s fledgling career took a new turn this week as the New York Jets benched him. Wilson’s poor play last Sunday, paired with a dismissive one-word answer at a press conference, sealed his fate. Jets head coach Robert Saleh had no choice, and now the Jets’ fate lies with Mike White. It is hard to assess what the Jets’ passing offense will look like; White is a novice at the NFL level, and the Jets’ passing offense has hit rock bottom over the last few weeks. 

However, New York can rely on their brilliant defense. Per Football Outsiders, the Jets are 6th in defensive DVOA. They possess difference makers at every level. Quinnen Williams is enjoying a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber season. CJ Moseley marshalls the defense brilliantly, and on the back end, Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed are locking up wide receivers. Their opponents today are the Chicago Bears. The Bears may be without Justin Fields due to injury; they have elevated Nathan Peterman from the practice squad. Therefore Fields’ status is uncertain. The Jets’ defense is a legitimate unit. They are capable of winning this game. And they need it badly. Robert Saleh has endured a dramatic week; a win to get to 7-4 will steady everything.

The Touchdown Review Derby

USA Today Sports

Any listeners of the Touchdown Review Show will know that the host is a Washington Commanders sufferer. One can say the same about one of the guests and his love/hate relationship with the Atlanta Falcons. Today, these two teams meet, and it is a big game. The Commanders are one of the in-form teams and, at 6-5, are playoff contenders. The Falcons are 5-6 and in the wildcard hunt. These sides are evenly matched. Football Outsiders currently rank them 17th and 18th in total DVOA. As Americans would say, it feels like a ‘pick ‘em.’

Nonetheless, it is a massive game in a wide-open wildcard race. Both teams have flaws, and both have strengths, but the decisive advantage may lie with Washington. Ron Rivera’s defense is a stingy unit. They have given up more than 20 points in a game twice since Week 2. In a game between two even teams, a proven, well-coached defense could make one podcast host very happy.

Is The Streak Over?

The week finishes with a Monday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts. On paper, it is a forgettable game featuring two teams that are not going anywhere in 2022. However, it does boast one significant storyline; the Pittsburgh Steelers could be heading for a sub.500 season for the first time under Mike Tomlin. At 3-7, the Steelers are now thinking about draft prospects rather than playoff prospects. Tomlin became the Steelers’ head coach in 2007 and has never finished a season with a losing record. It is a remarkable record. But it feels as if the Steelers are facing an uncertain future…

The once bully boys of the AFC North are no longer the biggest dogs in the yard. This season, the Steelers have conceded 35 points or more in a game on three different occasions. They are 23rd in run-offense DVOA. The smashmouth style that typified Pittsburgh for 40 years has gone. The standard is no longer the standard. That is not to say that cannot turn things around, but for the first time since the pre-Chuck Noll era, the Steelers really are an also-ran among thoroughbreds. 

TAYYIB ABU

CFB/NFL ANALYST

Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1

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