nfl week 1: four things to keep an eye on

By Tayyib Abu

Week 10 of the NFL features big games, big stories, and a big landmark for the NFL. It is the week when one sits down with a bier stein to enjoy the games. Here are four things to keep an eye on.

Hallo Munich

Matthias Balk/picture alliance via Getty Images

Week 10 features the NFL’s first regular season game in mainland Europe. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks travel to Bayern Munich’s Allianz Arena for what promises to be a spectacular event. And how lucky are the European fans that they get to watch a game with significant implications? The surprise 6-3 Seahawks may be the story of the season. A year removed from finishing bottom of the NFC West, Seattle is surging toward a playoff spot. The Seahawks bested the Arizona Cardinals last Sunday, and their potent offense is fuelling this charge. Seattle is currently 4th in offensive points per game. Journeyman quarterback Geno Smith is playing at an MVP level. Smith is 4th in QBR, 3rd in total EPA, 8th in EPA per play, 1st in completion over expected, and has a 99 passer score when throwing to wideouts aligned outside the numbers. He is playing like a bonafide MVP. The Seahawks’ offense is humming, and the relationship between coordinator Shane Waldron, Smith, and the skill players is unlike anything they had in the Russell Wilson era. 

But they will face a stern test from Todd Bowles’ Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. The Bucs are 5th in scoring defense and are the 4th best man coverage defense. Watch out for Jamel Dean, Carlton Davis, Antoine Winfield JR, and Mike Edwards are a ferocious foursome. They patrol the backfield with venom. It is no surprise that Tampa is 6th in defensive EPA per dropback. It will arguably be the toughest test yet for Smith and the Seahawks. 

On the other side, Tom Brady dragged the Bucs to a wild comeback win over the LA Rams. Next Gen Stats gave the Bucs a 5% chance of winning when they got the ball back for the final drive. Brady proceeded to spin another magical late-game web. At 4-5, Tampa is alive and kicking due to the NFC South’s poor play, and a chance to get to 5-5 is huge for this team. But can they fix their struggling offense? Tampa is 21st in EPA per play and 25th in offensive points per game. The offensive line is still toiling in pass protection, while the run game is nonexistent. Tampa’s offense looks impotent, unlike any Brady offense we have seen before. Seattle defender Uchenna Nwosu leads the NFL in pressures and will fancy his chances to wreak havoc in this one.  

Seattle looks like the better team. However, Brady is still capable of late-game heroics. He might need more if the Bucs are to clamber back to .500.

Is Tua Tagovailoa An MVP Candidate?

In the strangest of NFL seasons, Tua Tagovailoa has made headlines for a slew of reasons. From a scary concussion to offseason chatter about deep passing and everything else, it has been easy to underestimate Tagovalioa’s play. With a remodeled offensive line and outrageous supporting cast, Tagovailoa is piloting perhaps the most exciting offense in football. Miami ranks 4th in offensive EPA per play. Tagovailoa leads the NFL in total QBR, is 5th in total EPA, and leads the league in adjusted EPA per play. The last four players to finish top in that category have all won MVP.

Dig a little deeper into the semantics of ‘valuable,’ and Tagovailoa’s case grows; the Dolphins are 0-3 this season without Tua on the field. Tagovailoa is attacking all three levels of the field. His short to medium-range accuracy is metronomic, in proper Alabama Crimson Tide form. And his passer rating when throwing in the deep third is 104.4. The NFL average is 80.1. Speed demons Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle lead the league on targets in the deep middle. Tagovailoa is playing with more aggression and accuracy, and the Dolphins are reaping the rewards.

This Sunday, they host the inconsistent yet wildly talented Cleveland Browns. The Browns last played on Halloween as they routed the Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns’ defense is 29th in EPA per play, and they are susceptible to the RPO and shotgun-based offenses. The Dolphins can turn any game into a track meet, and Tagovailoa is benefitting from that potency. The AFC East is up for grabs, and these flying Dolphins are in the hunt, as is Tua Tagovailoa for MVP. He is playing splendid football right now.

Can The Colts Bring Their Saturday Best?

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

The Indianapolis Colts made more headlines this week as they announced Jeff Saturday as the interim head coach. Saturday played for 14 years in the NFL and won a Super Bowl with the Colts in 2006-07. In total, Saturday spent 12 seasons in Indianapolis, as he played a role during the Colts’ dominant run in the AFC South. Saturday retired a Colts legend and moved into the ESPN studios. And he stayed there until Jim Irsay needed a favor to combat a growing crisis. Saturday answered, and here we are. Immediately, the NFL world went into a meltdown over the appointment. Prominent analysts like Kyle Brandt and Joe Thomas were vehement in their criticism. And, there was understandable consternation regarding a minority hire. However, they have all missed the point. The Colts needed an interim head coach who was happy to walk into an organization collapsing like a house of cards.

Would Buffalo Bills defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier leave a Super Bowl contender to take up an interim position with a franchise without a quarterback? Likewise for Byron Leftwich. Or Raheem Morris. The Colts needed someone that knew the organization, had a connection with the fans, and could connect with a locker room. Jeff Saturday ticks those boxes. And he is no fool. He understands that wins are the only currency that counts in the NFL. If he plans on being a long-term head coach, Saturday will need results. But do not write this football lifer off. It starts with a game against a 2-6 Las Vegas Raiders side without Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow. Can the wounded Colts find a new head coach bounce and get a win for Saturday on Sunday?

Anyone For A Mike Drop?

Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers’ divorce was messy. And now McCarthy returns to Lambeau Field, with Rodgers and the Packers imploding. The Dallas Cowboys vs. The Green Bay Packers is the most storied matchup in the NFL. Both clubs have defined the NFL in the pre, and post-Super Bowl eras. While the Packers have dominated this fixture in recent seasons, the Cowboys are heavily favored in this game. At 6-2, Dallas is back from the bye, and its relentless defense must be fancying a broken Packer offense. The Packers are one of the worst offenses in football. And it starts with their Hall of Fame-bound quarterback. Rodgers is playing the worst football of his career. He is 27th in QBR, 23rd in total EPA, and is one of three quarterbacks to have negative EPA when throwing from a clean pocket. Against the one-win Detroit Lions, Rodgers threw three interceptions and missed several throws. The reigning MVP is playing frustrated. He is not leading his offense. The Packers are 23rd in offensive EPA, and they are particularly poor in the dropback passing game.

Green Bay has lost five straight games, and they’ve averaged 16 points per game in that stretch. The last thing this team needed was a defense that ranks 1st in pass rush win rate and is a top ten unit against the pas. The Cowboys’ defense can defeat teams in a myriad of ways. Dallas’ fronts and shifted formations help them create pressure with just four rushers. Add that to the walk-up ability of Leighton Van Der Esch, and the Dallas front seven is the best in the NFC. Defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has this unit performing relentlessly at all three levels. At 3-6, the Packers’ season is on life support. How ironic that a team led by Mike McCarthy could be the one to unplug the Packers from contention.

TAYYIB ABU

CFB/NFL ANALYST

Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1

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