NFL Prop Bets: Week 2
By Jamie Shepherd
We didn’t get off to a great start last week, going 2 for 5 on player props AND missing both my longer odds punts; James Cook marginally beat his line by 3 yards when we took the under, and Trevor Lawrence was just 15 yards from beating his line against our over bet. Hopefully the close ones go the other way this week and I can use lessons from Week 1 to find some more success.
As always, these prop bets are for entertainment only, and please gamble responsibly. All the odds below are from our friends at 888 Sport:
Top Five Player Props
Zach Wilson under 173.5 passing yards: 5/6
Poor old Jets. All the preseason hype and pregame spectacle came crashing down in just 4 plays with the heartbreakingly cruel Aaron Rogers achilles injury. Now, unless a new QB finds himself in the Big Apple, Zach Wilson must be the man to try and fulfil Jets fans’ lofty preseason hopes.
Following a woeful 2022 season, the team had hoped the 2021 first round pick would improve after a season or two watching one of the best to ever do it. Now, he has to step up instantly – and I just don’t think he’s ready.
Wilson only completed 14 passes in 21 attempts last week for 140 yards and looked no different to the guy that had the Jets players on offense and defense slating him to the media last year. There are no hopes of an easier week 2 matchup either, coming up against a monstrous Cowboys defense that shut out the Giants last week – and left Daniel Jones having nightmares.
The Jets O-line was one of the biggest concerns after last season, and it’s an area they’ve not improved on – so you can expect the Dallas D to have another field day (the Micah Parsons sack line at 8/15 for over 0.5 sacks is also looking pretty tasty).
Jahmyr Gibbs over 35.5 rushing yards: 5/6
Fantasy users who selected the first round running back were licking their lips in the first quarter of the Lions game vs the Chiefs. Gibbs burst out with a 17 yard run and then… only 6 more carries. Dan Campbell told the media they were just easing Gibbs into the NFL, and we can’t say it was the wrong decision with David Montgomery rushing for 74 yards and a touchdown. However, we’re told Gibbs will have a bigger involvement this week – so beating this line in an expanded role shouldn’t be a problem. If he can beat the above line on only 7 carries last week, the increased usage could see Gibbs having a field day.
Although Jahmyr only saw 7 carries last week he sure made the most of his limited usage, with 6 broken tackles and 42 yards, averaging an impressive 6 yards per carry. The running back looked every bit the explosive prospect we saw in college at Alabama, and he’ll be looking to vindicate any doubts of the Lions using such a high pick on him.
The Lions’ offensive line is a talented group who proved their capabilities last week, albeit against a Kansas defense without Chris Jones. This week’s opponents aren’t up to the same stadard; The Seahawks’ D-line has been holding back the defense for a few seasons now, and nothing has changed this season. Gibbs should have plenty of gaps to exploit, and even in the open field this Seahawks linebacker group excels more in pass coverage. The Lions will likely lean on the run game this week to help Jared Goff who is facing a tough Seahawks secondary to throw against. More runs + more Gibbs = easy cash.
Baker Mayfield over 225.5 passing yards: 5/6
That is an angry man 😡🖐️ pic.twitter.com/YWokLu0APa
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) September 11, 2023
From one first round QB to another, but this time we’re taking the over for Mayfield, who’s looking to stick in Tampa after spending a couple of seasons bouncing around the league. From everything he’s said to the media in the past few weeks it’s clear Baker is looking to prove the doubters wrong about himself, and this Bucs team as a whole who many are down on in the post Brady era. This was clearest to see when he got back to his trash talking ways that we all know and love him for last week, when he told Byron Murphy to “get your weight up little boy” after his angry run-winning rush.
Don’t get me wrong; Baker did not look good at the start of the Vikings game, completing 3 passes on 11 attempts for 12 yards. But then things started to click. From the Mike Evans TD drive in the 2nd quarter Mayfield then went 18/23 for 161 yards in an impressive road win. Also I wouldn’t have the poor start all on the Bucs QB as Dave Canales wasn’t calling the best plays to start his play calling career as the Bucs new OC. This is something Canales himself admitted in a presser this week saying he asked himself “who’s plays are these? They suck!” when looking at the callsheet. To be honest I tend to agree with him, when blocking tight end Ko Kieft was on the end of three (3!) targets early doors.
There were questions surrounding Tampa’s offensive line coming into the season but it did a good job protecting the QB last weekend, only allowing 1 sack. The Bears’ pass rush is significantly less potent than what they had to face against the Vikings, so you can expect Baker to have a good amount of time in the pocket to pick up the required yards for this one. This, alongside star WR duo Evans and Godwin means Baker has a great chance of cashing this line.
Anthony Richardson over 43.5 rushing yards: 17/20
Richardson’s legs looked a real threat against the Jaguars last week, and his aggressiveness to fight for every yard led to Trevor Lawrence warning the rookie QB about taking too many hits. Let’s hope he doesn’t heed that advice this weekend.
The Colts have spoken to free agent running backs Kareem Hunt and Leonard Fournette this week. No one has signed as yet, so Richardson will still be the man carrying the running game, with Jonathon Taylor on the PUP list and a thin RB room behind him. Anthony Richardson managed to rush for 40 yards last week against a tough Jags team, and will likely see more against a Texans team who are far less talented. They may have held Lamar to 3.5 yards under this line last week, but the Ravens have a more heavily bolstered group of backs than the Colts, and also want to be pass first side under new OC Todd Monken.
I’m sure Shane Steichen liked what he saw when watching Richardson produce with his feet last weekend, and will call plenty of rushing plays and have his QB cashing the over on this one.
Keenan Allen over 69.5 receiving yards: 4/5
My last prop pick of the week comes from LA and talented Chargers receiver Keenan Allen. The Chargers face a Titans side that looked awful vs New Orleans last week, and I can see Justin Herbert and his receivers having a field day.
Allen has beat this line in 7 of his last 12 games and should make it 8 this week with an increased Chargers passing game. The Chargers produced a rushing masterclass in their loss against the Dolphins, but will no doubt lean more into the passing game in this one. The main reason for this is that elite running back Austin Ekeler is doubtful so will probably not see the field on Sunday – and even if he does it will be in limited usage.
The Chargers held onto the ball through the run last week to try and keep an unstoppable Dolphins offense off the field. I don’t think they’ll be as worried about what Tennessee has to offer. When the Titans do have the ball they won’t have it for long – if Ryan Tannehill plays anything like he did last week, meaning plenty of plays for Allen to rack up the yards.
Allen will fancy his chances to prove once again why the 5x Pro Bowler is one of the leagues’ better pass catchers when up against this Titans secondary. The team allowed the most passing yards in the league last year and haven’t made any notable additions to improve on this. Allen will be matching up against average corners like Sean Murphy-Bunting and Roger McCreary, and is more than talented enough to be taking advantage of these and cashing this over.
Longer Odds
Scorecast Of The Week
Bills to win by 9+ poins, and Dalton Kincaid to score a TD: 6/1
Touchdown Scorer Acca Of The Week
The below 4-fold for anytime TD scorers comes in at 60.42/1:
Calvin Ridley
Brandon Aiyuk
Chris Godwin
Cameron Sutton
Feature Image Credit: AP Photo/Matt Rourke
JAMIE SHEPHERD
NFL Betting Analyst
A Hull native, Jamie has followed the NFL from a young age, ever since his dad went to a London game. A Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Florida Gators fan, you can find Jamie on Twitter @JLShepp66.