2021-05-01
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By Simon Carroll
Deciding who ‘won the draft’ is a fools errand. Most analysts say it will be at least three years before we truly know whether a draft pick was a success or not, and history tells us that a 50% strike rate is par for the course when it comes to scouting prospects.
What we will do is add some context to each pick – whether it fills a team need and how, schematically, a franchise’s latest star will fit into their system. We can also look at the value of each selection in relation to common perception, i.e. was he a steal or did a team reach for him? And if there was a trade involved, what was the cost of doing business?
For all the analysis of the first round picks from Thursday, click here. We now turn our attention to day two, and all 74 picks from rounds two and three:
Tal long corner with unreasonable speed for his size. Still developing his ball skills but the former Bulldog should slide in opposite CJ Henderson and provide an immediat upgrade to this secondary.
What a weapon to give your rookie Quarterback! Elijah Moore is a versatile receiver who can line up inside, outside or in the backfield – he has great hands and electric speed. Just give him the ball and watch him go. In Mike LaFleur’s quick strike offense, Wilson and Moore should explode.
trading up to get ahead of Miami and make sure they get their guy, the Broncos get the final elite ball carrier in the draft. Williams has insane contact balance, pinballing off defenders and accumulating yards that just don’t exist. This addition looks to have reduced Melvin Gordon’s role to a change of pace guy, which at this stage of his career probably makes sense.
Many have Jevon Holland pegged as a box safety but I think he has the speed and game reading ability to be used in a variety of ways. Brian Flores appreciates versatility and the former Oregon Duck should give the Dolphins an upgrade in their secondary.
For a team that has so many needs i’m not sold on bringing in a guy who hasn’t been able to stay on the field. That being said, Dickerson is one hell of a football player, and with Jason Kelce still in town should start at guard early in his NFL career.
A steal for the Patriots, who trade up to take a first round talent faling down the board. Barmore is ridiculously atheltic, can be a disruptor in the backfield or scrape along the line of scrimmage and chase the ball down. New England looks set to be an Alabama outpost as the Saban-Belichick connection grows stronger.
Two trades up have left the coffers empty of draft picks, but what a pair of selections for the Bears. Teven Jenkins is all kinds of nasty and will be a ten year starter at right tackle for the Bears, who find their first franchise QB in history and intend to protect him.
Versatile ballhawk on the back end with impressive click and close speed, Richie Grant is a ready made replacement for the recently departed Demontae Kazee.
Dan Campbell building from the trenches is the least surprising event of the draft so far. Onwuzurike is lightning quick off the line and lives to rush the passer from the interior. He should start next to Michael Brockers from the outset.
This is a smart move by Miami. Eichenberg is a technician, so smooth across the turf and demonstrates excellent hand placement. He might line up as a guard, or start at RT with Robert Hunt kicking inside.
The slide of Trevon Moehrig ends at 43, and what a landing spot! Gruden will love the playmaking ability of Moehrig, who had a back issue late in the draft process. If he’s healthy he could prove to be a real difference maker for the Raiders on their back end.
A long, tall corner with a nose for an interception, Joseph began his college life at Alabama before finding his way to SEC relevance at Kentucky. When he hits, you know about it. He’s a tone setter on the back end and should start on the outside opposite Tre’von Diggs.
Can Walker Little stay on the field? If so, then Jacksonville just got themselves a steal. A five star high school recruit, Little has suffered his fair share of injuries but he is a big dude who is quick across the turf. I imagine they want him as the long term successor to Cam Robinson on the blind side, but should start life at Right Tackle early in his Jaguars career.
After trading down the Bengals finally get some more protection for Joe Burrow. Jackson Carman is a physical, aggressive blocker who many project to kick inside, but Cincy might want to kick the tyres on him at right tackle first…
The Chargers get their cornerback to line up opposite Mike Davis after cutting ties with Casey Hayward. Asante Samuel is undersized but sticky and plays the ball as well as his father did. His ability to break off his own responsibility to make turnovers is second to none in this draft class.
An absolute animal on the interior, Aaron Banks revels in the physical battle, and whilst it doesn’t always look pretty he is rarely beaten. The right guard spot is there for the taking on that 49ers o-line…
The Cardinals, already a dynamic offense, get perhaps the most versatile playmaking receiver in the draft. Rondale Moore is everything Arzona hoped Andy Isabella would be – just turn on the Ohio State tape to see what this kid can do with the ball in his hand. He’s undersized and has had injury issues, but what a phenomenal talent.
This is insane value right here. Azeez Ojulari has had some medical concerns late in the draft process that knocked him down a round, but the sheer speed and athleticism he brings to the position is scary. You want to line him up as wide as possible, and in the Giants 3-4 defense I like him as a rush linebacker.
Washington have been searching for the successor to Trent Williams ever since he left town 12 months ago. Sam Cosmi might not be quite ready to assume blindside duties from day one, but he’s insanely athletic and will develop into a starting left tackle in the near future.
The fall down the draft for JOK ends as the Browns pick up a movable chess piece for their defense. Owusu-Koramoah is the classic linebacker safety hybrid that can be utilised in a number of ways to neutralise offensive threats, and works best with the game in front of him where he can come downhill and bring thunder to the ball carrier or catch point.
The Isaiah Wilson chapter is officially closed. Many saw Radunz as a borderline first round prospect, others see him as a guard. The Titans will want to try him out at right tackle where last year’s first round pick was supposed to start – the former Bison showcased impressive athleticism on the outside for North Dakota State.
The Colts go back to back edge rushers with the selection of Dayo Odeyingbo, who was the one ray of light on a poor Vanderbilt defense. His athleticism, power and versatility saw him move around a lot for Vandy as they tried in vain to compete with SEC offenses. He’ll take some time to recover from a nasty injury but will eventually see the field opposite Kwity Paye in this new look pass rushing unit.
Eschewing big needs across the board, the Steelers grab an all-round tight end. Freiermuth is a coaches dream and does everything to a high level, and gives Big Ben another weapon as he rolls the dice one last time for a Superbowl, but with Eric Ebron on the books and holes on the o-line, at edge and in the secondary, was it a prudent move?
With just three picks, the Seahawks should have traded down if possible. BUt the addition of the speedy Eskridge not only gives them another vertical threat, but also impressive special teams value as a gunner and returner.
The Rams see The Cardinals and Seahawks take track star receivers and grab one for themselves. Atwell is alarmingly undersized but has the ability to make gamechanging plays every time he touches the football. In Sean McVay’s dynamic offense he should thrive.
Nick Bolton brings physicality to every snap. A downhill thumper with an old school mentality he loves to meet running backs in the hole, and will go into a rotation with Anthony Hitchens and Willie Gay at the heart of the Chiefs defense.
After losing Curtis Samuel in free agency, the Panthers were always likely to bring in a receiver this draft. Marshall is a different kind of pass catcher, but is a truly dangerous weapon. Sa Darnold has a receiving group that is as good as any team in the NFL.
With Alex Anzalone out the door there was a hole at weakside linebacker, and Pete Werner fits the bill. Maybe a little early for him, the Saints draft to their own tune and have been very successful doing so. Re-upping this defense considering the losses makes sense.
The Bills double down on pass rushers. Boogie Basham is tailor made for Buffalo, a bigger edge rusher with power and a non-stop motor. He can kick inside in their subpackage too. The weakest aspect of this roster has been upgraded.
Ignoring the histrionics of their star quarterback, the Packers have done well with their first two selections. Myers is an ideal replacement for the departed Corey Linsley and allows Green Bay to keep Elgton Jenkins at guard where he has flourished.
The Chiefs have done an excellent job of tearing down and rebuilding the offensive line. The final piece was at Center, and the colossal and nasty Creed Humphrey is an ideal candidate. He should immediately replace Austin Blythe at the top of the depth chart.
The Bucs are loaded, and it is only natural that they should start thinking about life after Tom Brady. I had Trask a little higher than Kellen Mond and Davis Mills because his floor is higher, and I don’t trust the other two to reach their higher ceilings. Trask is at worst a capable backup at the next level.
Andre Cisco is a big time playmaker who has impressive click and close speed to disrupt the catch point from any location. He has erratic streaks to his play and will need to make better decisions in the NFL, but you cannot argue with the natural talent he possesses.
Kellen Mond is the total opposite to Kirk Cousins in terms of skillset – he’s mobile with a huge arm, but is inconsistent and was often given just half-field reads at Texas A&M. He has the most upside out of any of these next level quarterbacks, and for the Vikings with all their picks it makes sense to take a chance on him.
For a team with little draft capital, normally I would roast this pick, but Houston are in a bind considering DeShaun Watson’s legal issues. They had no choice but to draft a quarterback, and Davis Mills, despite only 11 starts for Stanford, could end up starting for the Texans in week 1.
I love Mayfield and the upside he possesses. A huge dude with ridiculous speed, he is far from the finished product I expect him to start at guard for the Falcons with a long term view of him becoming their right tackle of the future.
Insane value for the Bengals at 69, and despite the acquisition of Trey Hendricksen you can never have too much pass rush. Ossai is a freak of nature with crazy short area agility. He’s barely scratched the surface of his potential after just one year at the position.
The Panthers have done well to move back on a couple of occasions and find crazy value, and Brady Christensen might be the best of the lot. Dominant as part of that BYU line that protected Zach Wilson so well, he offers new QB Sam Darnold the same security for the Panthers.
A versatile defensive back who looks like the perfect fit as a slot corner in this defense, Aaron Robinson is a tough tackler and shows good football IQ on the field. Dave Gettleman has given his defense two huge upgrades on day two.
Love the fit, love the value, just don’t understand the need – Alim McNeil is definitely a Dan Campbell guy with a healthy dose of aggression and a non-stop motor on the interior of the defensive line. But after trading for Michael Brockers and drafting Levi Onwuzurike earlier, could they have gone in a different direction?
A physical beast who offers some positional versatility, Milton Williams can likely play edge in a four man front or as a five tech in a 3-4. That three down capability might appeal to the Eagles, but you can’t help but think they could have got him a round later.
Long and lean with good fluidity, BSJ is the modern day cornerback. Washington suffered some losses in their secondary and despite re-tooling quite well was always going to add via the draft. St-Just has the game and mindset to work in Jack Del Rio’s sticky defense.
Dallas needed to reinforce the interior of that defensive line after working their way through a host of names the last two seasons. Odighizuwa is an athletic talent who can also line up as an edge rusher.
The Saints finally address the cornerback position, and get a bigtime playmaker in Paulson Adebo. The former Cardinal has some truly jaw-dropping moments on tape, but also some head scratching mistakes too.
Josh Palmer is a physical, combative receiver at the catch point but also has sneaky athleticism and can create separation in small areas. He reminds me a lot of Doug Baldwin and gives Justin Herbert another weapon.
After playing two years at Quarterback in Chapel Hill, Chazz Surratt switched to linebacker and made an instant impact. He has the natural instincts and feel for the position, giving him the anticipation to counteract a shortfall in agility. The Vikings is a perfect landing spot for him.
Koonce is an underrated edge rusher who had 14 sacks in 18 games for the Bulls over the last two seasons. He’s quick, agile and knows how to get into the backfield, and will help breathe life into a unit that has also added Yannick Ngakoue.
Back to back picks for the Raiders and they take ascending prospect Divine Deablo. They called him a linebacker at the podium, alluding to where they see him fitting on their roster, but with more of a safety role at Virginia Tech he might be considered a hybrid box defender.
The Dolphins might have had their eye on Kyle Pitts in round one, but take an underrated all round tight end here. Long has shown the capacity to do it all for the Eagles and should become the TE2 behind Mike Gesicki straight away.
Dyami Brown is a player who looks well suited to operating the middle of the field at the next level. His jitterbug, shifty route running helps him get separation in confined areas and gives the WFT three receivers who all can make something out of nothing.
Possibly the best blocking tight end in the draft, Tommy Tremble has little tape of him catching the football despite flashing the necessary traits to embrace such a role. It’s a high upside pick for the Panthers – if he develops the receiving side to his game he will be a steal.
I had Golston as a seventh round pick. He’s impressive against the run and can set the edge well, but I found him lacking as a pass rusher. The Cowboys might have him pegged to be an early down defender before bringing in situational rushers on obvious passing downs.
I had a feeling Amari Rodgers would end up in Green Bay. His skillset, as mentioned to death by now, is similar to that of Randall Cobb – he is almost a hybrid WR/RB with a low center of gravity who can work his way through contact and break off chunk plays at will.
Getting Wyatt Davis at this juncture is downright scandalous. On a patchwork offensive line that has failed to give Dalvin Cook the protection he needs it’s an instant upgrade – Davis likely starts at left guard next to fellow rookie and blindside protector Christian Darrisaw.
One of my favourite players in the draft, Green had played the other side of the ball until he got to Illinois. He’s raw, hasn’t quite got the instincts yet and needs to work on his hands, but his foot speed and power are ridiculously good. They named him a center, alluding to where they see his eventual home on this Pittsburgh o-line.
A true slasher of a running back, Sermon will thrive in Shanahan’s one cut run game. He showed in his final few games for Ohio State what he is capable of, and he goes straight to the top of this 49ers depth chart.
Nico Collins felt like a Patriots receiver, meaning it makes sense that Nick Caserio traded up to go get him. An all-round outside pass catcher with underrated route running and good hands under pressure, he should immediately help whichever new quarterback is under center.
More value for the Vikings, who get a whirlwind edge rusher at #90. Patrick Jones basically makes camp in an offense’s backfield. He’s got some technique issues and looks ungainly at times, but this coaching staff will help him reach his serious potentia
The Browns have more than $30m of their cap dedicated to Jarvis Landry and OBJ in 2022, so adding another receiver was always likely. Schwartz brings track speed to the table and gives Cleveland the ability to take the top off a defense.
The Titans have done well to find starter value at every pick so far in this draft. Monty Rice had some loud fans who raved about his physicality and work rate, two pre-requisites in a MIke Vrabel defense.
The Bills continue to bulk up in the trenches. I’m all in on Spencer Brown after watching his tape late – he’s huge with unbridled power and dancing bear feet – he’s behind the curve with his fundamentals and technique, but as a developmental third round pick he has the upside to think he can be a starting right tackle in the future.
After losing Orlando Brown and other pieces to their o-line this offseason, The Ravens needed to rebuild. Ben Cleveland is a behemoth on the interior, a true road grader who loves nothing more than putting opponents into the ground.
Robert Hainsey played right tackle for the Fighting Irish, but his long term future in the NFL might be at guard. The Buccaneers have some ageing pieces in their offensive line and it is prudent to bring in some reinforcements, particularly prospects with positional versatility.
Ronnie Perkins at 96 is daylight robbery, and of course it’s the Patriots who are the recipients of such astonishing value. A whirlwind edge rusher whose non-stop motor tires out offensive linemen, Perkins needs to just develop his hand usage and placement to be a starter in the NFL.
Interesting that McKitty came off the board here and not the productive Brevin Jordan – it seems the Chargers have gone with traits in this instance. McKitty is very quick with good pass catching skills; he flashed at the Senior Bowl but his college tape is light on highlight reel moments.
The fan favourite sneaks into day two and rightly so; Denver is a fantastic landing spot for Meinerz, who has positional versatility and can be a backup at all spots on the interior as he negotiates the steep learning curve from Division III football to the NFL.
I like Nahshon Wright, but even I think this is a little early. But I understand why – Wright is tall and long and makes complete sense in a Dan Quinn defense, reminiscent of cornerbacks for the Legion of Boom days in Seattle. You just wish he had some more athleticism to his game to make him a more complete cornerback.
Elijah Molden is a fantastic football player, regardless of the position he plays or the box you put him in. He’s undersized, of that there is no doubt, but he sticks like glue to receivers and has the aggression at the catch point to revel in the role of a slot corner or big nickel defensive back.
Another Dan Campbell guy, Melifonwu is combative and competitive from the first snap to the last. He has impressive size and more than enough athleticism to keep up with receivers, attacking the ball at the catch point.
A slot corner only, Thomas lacks the natural speed to play on the outside. But his terrier-like attitude makes him a good fit for Kyle Shanahan, who likes undersized but feisty cornerbacks – see Jason Verrett for details.
Some major departures to the second level of the Rams defense the past two years made linebacker a need heading into the draft. Ernest Jones is a thumper who stops ball carriers dead in their tracks, and will likely be a day one starter at inside linebacker in this 3-4 defense.
Brandon Stephens played running back at UCLA before transferring to SMU and converting to cornerback. The football instincts were immediately on show, but a move to safety makes sense as it allows him to be more aggressive and utilise his size better in this Ravens defense.
Baron Browning was expected to go higher than this, but perhaps teams were put off by the inconsistencies in his tape. I’d argue that’s a lot to do with Ohio State moving him around too much, and he should be very comfortable as Vic Fangio’s enforcer next to Josey Jewell at the heart of this defense.
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