Has the hype train become derailed?

By Martin Richardson

Now that we are approaching the halfway stage of the season, we’re starting to see some patterns emerge and seeing where players and teams are beginning to settle into what may lead to success or failure.

Just ask the New York Jets.

After week 7, the Ravens are becoming to show their worth, with both Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry leading their Super Bowl charge. And when you look at the decision the Titans made when it came to Henry, perhaps it was the wrong one. At 1-5, the Titans have shifted focus and traded away DeAndre Hopkins to the Kansas City Chiefs. Not all is well in Tennessee so maybe a soft reboot is in order. The Browns lost their controversial QB to a season ending injury; ill let you decide on whether that’s bad news or not. What it does give us NFL fans is a lot of Jameis Winston. Who knows, maybe he gets to eat a W every now and then? Down in Vegas Antonio Pierce might have to eat a slice of humble pie and play Gardner Minshew, who he clearly just doesn’t like, for at least one more week after Aiden O’Connell hurt his thumb. They have brought in Desmond Ridder, who I expect to play at least two games before O’Connell comes back. And finally the Miami Dolphins played out their last abomination of a football game before Tua’s impending return: Tyreek Hill fantasy owners rejoice!

But like I said, the dust is beginning to settle after a pre-season hype train left the station. Perhaps we need to look at some of those who had high hopes on the fantasy hype train. Tickets at the ready, because I’m going hard and fast with these picks this week.  

PATRICK MAHOMES

Yes that’s right, told you I was going hard this week. You did indeed read that correctly: Patrick Mahomes.

Mr 6-0.

Mr Undefeated.

Mr Most Interceptions in the NFL.

Which is why I’m about to write this: Patrick Mahomes is a droppable player in Fantasy Football. Ranked outside the top 20 in fantasy QBs, Mahomes has simply just been an average QB for fantasy players this year. Yes, he has six wins. Yes, the Chiefs are undefeated. But he currently has the longest interception streak in the NFL with six games in a row. The way the Chiefs are getting these wins is not helping fantasy managers at all. Put it this way, he has more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (6 passing and 1 rushing) this season, which is a ludicrous statement given who I am referring to. In his biggest game in terms of yardage, 331 against the Saints, he didn’t get a touchdown completions, so his points tally never reached those higher echelons of top fantasy QBs. Add to that one of those six interceptions, and he is yet to get into the high teens when it comes to points scored.

To compound matters more, Mahomes has the same amount of touchdown passes as Daniel Jones, who has six and double the amount of interceptions as the Giants QB; and last time I checked, the Giants benched Jones in his last game. Bo Nix has more total touchdowns than Mahomes. Now, you may well be thinking that I am picking these two to suit my point, so let’s take a look at some other players who are more viable fantasy options that Patrick Mahomes: Geno Smith has at least one touchdown a game and in some cases is scoring double the amount of points than Mahomes. Still not convinced, ok, I’ll go one more: Kyler Murray. Just like Smith, Murray has thrown at least one touchdown a game, as well as rushing for two more. In all bar one game, Murray has scored more points than Mahomes and that is without leaning on Marvin Harrison Jr as much as people thought.

ANTHONY RICHARDSON

Embed from Getty Images

Given that he has been injured this season, this might seem a little harsh. But, this is an under the radar article, not a let’s pile it on article, I’m picking out things that have intrigued me, regardless of sample size.

Which brings me on to the top five fantasy QB prospect QB- Anthony Richardson. He opened the season in sensational fashion: two touchdowns and over 200 yards in the air, as well as over 50 yards rushing and a touchdown to top it off. But that’s been his best. Since then, he has thrown five interceptions in the three game before he missed time with yet another injury. And even when he came back last week against the Dolphins, he had a fumble instead of an interception.

Either way, he is throwing points away for fantasy players with these issues.

Given that he was supposed to be competing with Lamar Jackson and even Josh Allen in fantasy terms, he’s miles off the pace of those. He’s way behind Patrick Mahomes this season and above pointed out, he’s not been anything above alright. What doesn’t help is that this offense seems to have contracted the same illness that the Browns caught last season: Joe Flaccoitis.

How’s this for a stat- Joe Flacco has played three games this season, less than Richardson, excluding when he got injured, and is ranked higher than Richardson on ESPN. And he didn’t even play last week! Flacco’s seven touchdown passes show that this offense works and that it can function in a way that is productive. For some reason, Richardson hasn’t found that spark to light up the Colts the way he did in week one.

Given the hype around Richardson this off season, I wouldn’t go against benching him in the coming weeks.

Marvin Harrison jr

This is a bit of strange one. There are people who are saying that he’s not been what everyone thought he would be, or that he isn’t pulling his weight in all aspects of the game. But, when you look at the numbers, I don’t think it is a Harrison problem, more of an offense problem. As I mentioned with the Mahomes analysis, Kyler Murray has been getting touchdowns every game, whether by running them in or passing them to a variety of players. Or so it would appear. In reality, Harrison Jr leads the Cardinals with four touchdowns compared to two for wide receiver Michael Wilson and tight end Elijah Higgins. So after seven games, is a return of four touchdowns for a rookie wide receiver that bad?

I think what has gone under the radar, and why Harrison Jr is being discussed here, is that he has been productive and people are not looking back at that. Recency bias here is shaping what people think Harrison is doing, or not doing on the field. But you just have to look at when he has been targeted, and what he done, then you see its more to do with the offense overall, as shown in the clip above from a recent game. He was free but the default setting of Kyler Murray to scramble for a short pass and gain meant that a huge pass and touchdown opportunity went missing.

When you consider this, just look at his breakout game against the Rams, which saw two explosive plays, as many touchdowns from a total of four receptions from eight targets, totalling 130 yards and an average over 30 yards per play. This shows that he has the capability to make those catches and turn them into scoring opportunities. A touchdown a game followed against the Lions and Commanders. However since then, he has had a total of fifteen targets for 57 yards. People are focusing on this and seeing him as a bust, which I find truly startling to read after seven games in the NFL.

Harrison Jr and the Cardinals have a mixed schedule coming up: the Dolphins this week followed by the Bears and Jets, so there is a chance that he can make an impact against these defenses. No doubt Sauce Gardner will be matched up with Harrison, so perhaps watch that one. But Harrison Jr has the talent to make this season a success and be an integral part of the Cardinals offense going forward. He just needs to get the ball more and as the stats show, he will produce.

MARTIN RICHARDSON

NFL/FANTASY FOOTBALL ANALYST

A Yorkshireman living in Lancashire, Martin is a massive NFL fan but his heart belongs to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Also a huge Fantasy Football enthusiast and spends far too long crunching the numbers! Follow him at @MRBucsFan31

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