Dynasty Buys Series: Christian Kirk
There were a lot of analysts who had doubts over the value Christian Kirk in dynasty leagues even before the blockbuster acquisition of superstar receiver DeAndre Hopkins, now a record amount of fantasy players are ready to ditch Kirk after a less than stellar 2019 and a potential move down the depth chart.
My advice is to zig while everyone else is zagging, take advantage of the falling stock of Kirk and buy while his value is so low. At an ADP of 103 (WR40), Kirk has a lot of upside for relatively little risk.
Focusing on 2020
The ageless wonder Larry Fitzgerald (36) returns for another season and another shot at the fabled Super Bowl that has eluded him for so long. He’s joined by four-time Pro-Bowler and three-time All-Pro DeAndre Hopkins in what looks to be one of the NFL’s top offenses heading in the 2020 season. The team signed running back Kenyan Drake to a one year transition tag contract and have upcoming star QB Kyler Murray under center entering his second season as an NFL player. This offense is exciting, dynamic and most certainly loaded.
Kirk’s outlook for 2020 therefore is most definitely impacted by the receiving options Murray has and being a mobile quarterback. Murray uses his electrifying speed to get out of trouble rather than staying in the pocket and throwing to his receivers. Don’t lose faith though, Kirk, entering his 3rd NFL season, is still only 23 years old and has flashed his potential with high score games such as the three touchdown performance against Tampa Bay last November, just don’t bank on them happening very often.
In 2020 he will be lined up opposite Hopkins who will most certainly be drawing the attention of the top opposition corners giving Kirk more wiggle room to work against the second and third best cornerbacks on the defenae. He will also have the added bonus of already having a season of rapport with Kyler Murray which given such a short offseason will certainly be of benefit.
Although the touchdowns for Kirk didn’t increase in 2019, he did see increased targets from the rookie QB, 108 up on just 68 from the previous year. These targets turned into 25 more receptions but disappointingly only amounted to an extra 119 yards with Murray struggling for consistency in his rookie season.
If Kirk can stay healthy, having missed three games last season, then he can certainly fill a WR3 or flex position in your line-ups with boom or bust potential outcomes in 2020.
Looking beyond 2020
You have to believe Fitzgerald will be hanging up his cleats after the 2020 season having considered retirement before inking the one year deal in Arizona this season. If the future hall of famer decides to move away from the sport in 2021 then Christian Kirk will undoubtedly be the big winner and his value will be much higher, which is why moving for him now is the key.
I expect the early teething problems for Murray and Hopkins to fade away mid season and the wideout will regain his top NFL WR status and kick on in the 2021 campaign. This actually helps Kirk prosper being the man with the least attention. He’s shown already in his short NFL career that he is unlikely to carry the burden of a true WR1, so his best work will come opposite a star wide receiver and that’s exactly the position he is in.
Late 2020 and into 2021 expect to see Kirk thrive in this explosive offense that will see Murray climb towards the top of the NFL QB rankings and Kirk in his important fourth year can be that high upside WR2 that you can acquire now for as low as a 2nd round rookie pick.
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