conference preview 2021: Big Ten
By Simon Carroll
A team-by-team analysis of the Big Ten, the season ahead and final standings predictions.
EAST
1. Ohio State Buckeyes
Where else to start? The Buckeyes have now won four straight Big Ten titles, and the transition from Urban Meyer to Ryan Day was seamless. No matter how much talent departs to the NFL on a yearly basis, Ohio State just keeps replacing it. This offseason saw ten Buckeyes drafted, five from each side of the football – the joint-most of any CFB program in the nation (Alabama). Yet with one of the best offensive lines, defensive lines and receiving corps in the NCAA, expect them to be in the thoughts of the College Football Playoff committee once again.
The biggest question heading into 2021 is whether CJ Stroud is the man to replace Justin Fields. He likely is, so in reality the question becomes, how long does he take to settle in? If the talent around him is anything to go by, it shouldn’t be long at all; operating behind an o-line likely to challenge for the Joe Moore Award, Stroud will have plenty of time to pick and choose which elite pass catcher he wants to give the ball. OSU perennially has so many options at receiver, they have only had FIVE 1,000 receiving yard seasons in their 109 year history. Chris Olave may enter that elite group in 2021, but Garrett Wilson opposite him will also get his dues. And lets not forget about Master Teague, who will be the main man in the backfield with the loss of Trey Sermon.
Some notable names have gone from all levels of the defense; Tommy Togiai and Jonathan Cooper up front, Shaun Wade on the back end, and all four main linebackers (Werner, Hilliard, Browning, Borland). The LB corps is the biggest worry on this defense and on this team – sure, they have big name recruits, but with just 37 tackles between the whole group last year they’ll have moments where their inexperience shows. Despite that, expect big years from Haskell Garrett (DT), Sevyn Banks (CB) and Zach Harrison (EDGE).
Despite the alarming consistency and the way they destroyed Clemson in the CFP last year, Ohio State do have their wobbles; Purdue a few years ago springs to mind, and Indiana came close to toppling them in 2020. Looking at the schedule for trip hazards, Oregon in week 2 is the most obvious, particularly if CJ Stroud is still getting acclimated. They also go to Bloomington the week before the Penn State game, which is a tricky double header. Even if they do take one body blow, they’re still the favourites for the conference and a seat at the CFP table come January.
Prediction: 11-1, Division Winners, Big Ten Champions
2. Penn State Nittany Lions
Such is the success that James Franklin has presided over in Happy Valley since 2014, last year’s 4-5 record was a shock to the college football world. It was probably a shock to Franklin too, beginning the year with five straight losses. Despite the aesthetics, it’s easy to argue that the Nittany Lions were nothing more than unfortunate; COVID, new offensive coordinators, a yardage differential of +102 per Big Ten game, lost to Indiana in the opener because of a dubious pylon dive by Michael Penix – the list of reasons is long. I’m sure everyone associated with the program are glad to see the back of 2020.
Expect a big bounce back this year. Sean Clifford hangs on to the QB job and should be wiser after a year of adversity. His final numbers weren’t bad and Franklin is confident of better things from his dual threat quarterback. He’ll need to find rhythm with new center Mike Miranda after Michael Menet left for the NFL, but his receiving options were boosted with the return of Jahan Dotson for his senior year. Pat Freiermuth is a big loss at tight end, but all in all this unit has stability and experience.
After losing the first five games of last year, this roster played hard for Franklin and turned it round, winning the last four. In those first five games the defense was giving up 36 points per game – in the last four that figure dropped to 17.3. That encouraging stat is a precursor to what could be the best defense in the Big Ten this year; seven starters return, many of which who were young last year and thrown in to cover injuries and opt outs (Micah Parsons). They do lose rush duo Odafe (Jayson) Oweh and Shaka Toney, but have such a deep group it wouldn’t be surprising to see them put up bigger numbers than in 2020 – two incoming transfers in Arnold Ebiketie (Temple) and Derrick Tangelo (Duke) add to a deep group of talent.
Penn State has the 21st most difficult schedule in college football, so improvement won’t come easy. They’ll be tested early travelling to Madison for their season opener. And playing Iowa and Indiana back to back before the bye week will be tough. A loss likely awaits them in Columbus, but aside from that they’ll be confident. Depending on the growth, The Nitts should be eyeing anywhere from 8-4 to 10-2.
Prediction: 9-3
3. Indiana Hoosiers
Is Tom Allen actually the greatest head coach in college football? Big Ten savants will tell you just how difficult it is to win in Bloomington; sharing the same state as Notre Dame and even Purdue traditionally makes the Hoosiers third choice and forgotten about by the top recruits. A school that is much more renowned for its basketball program, before Allen arrived the last time this program won eight games was in 1993. Allen matched that in 2019, then went 6-2 in a COVID-struck 2020. The Hoosiers finished ranked #12 by the AP, their highest ranking in fifty-three years.
Not only that, but they knocked off three ranked opponents along the way (Penn State, Michigan & Wisconsin) and only lost to Ohio State by one score – a game where they gave Justin Fields nightmares. If they had flipped that result, they would have been in the Big Ten championship game against Northwestern – a very winnable game in itself. They rode their luck on occasion, but there is the case to be made that Indiana was a touchdown away from being in the college football playoffs.
A big reason for their success is Michael Penix, who was a star for them in 2020. If he’s healthy, he’s possibly the best quarterback in the Big Ten, and how he goes, this offense goes. Good news for the Hoosiers then, that he has a deep stable of receiving talent to throw the ball to – Whop Philyor leaves for the NFL but leading pass catcher Ty Fryfogle returns. He’s joined by transfers from Florida (DJ Matthews) and Texas A&M (Cameron Buckley) as people start to take notice of this program. And if you think the offense is good, then the defense might be even better – nine returning starters and potential All-Americans in LB Micah McFadden and CB Tiawan Mullen. Keep your eyes peeled for numbers 47 and 3 on the D this year.
For Indiana to take the next step, they need to beat Ohio State and top the East. With a trip to Happy Valley to play a resurgent Penn State and then hosting OSU the week after the Buckeyes have a bye, the schedule doesn’t look like it’s going to help that cause. But nine wins is definitely attainable, something IU has not achieved since 1967.
Prediction: 9-3
4. Michigan Wolverines
It’s a make or break year for Jim Harbaugh in Ann Arbor. Hailed to be the saviour of Wolverine football upon his return to the program where he was a quarterback many years ago, things have not gone according to script. Despite winning ten games in three of the six seasons he’s been head coach, Harbaugh has failed to unseat Ohio State as the dominant team in the East, and hasn’t won the Big Ten once. After going 2-4 in 2020 you get the feeling that if an NFL team had come knocking for him this offseason, Michigan would not have stood in his way. As it is, he returns for year seven as a coach who is well and truly on the hot seat.
Harbaugh knows it, and has made some sweeping changes – hiring a raft of new staff that includes defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. It was no surprise that Don Brown was let go, as the Wolverines posted their worst defensive statistics since 2010. To improve on those numbers, Macdonald will need to find a new pass rush, with Kwity Paye and Carlo Kemp gone. Aidan Hutchinson, who missed all of 2020 with a fractured ankle, is expected to be the star up front, and nose tackle Jordan Whittley comes over from Oregon State too. With seven starters back you’d expect improvement, but it’s hard to see this unit becoming one of the most feared in the Big Ten.
On offense, hopes are much higher. Returning Junior Cade McNamara has been named the starting QB after Joe Milton transferred out this offseason. McNamara was efficient in limited snaps last year, but if he starts slow he’ll be looking over his shoulder at five star freshman JJ McCarthy, who pushed him hard in camp. Ronnie Bell offers them a legit weapon on the outside to target, and the offensive line stands to be much better in 2021.
The Big Ten East is tough, and as a result the Wolverines are staring at the 12th hardest schedule in college football. The good news is they get four home games to start the season, and with a big win over Washington would likely go 4-0. After that things get tricky; state rivals Michigan State might be deficient in talent but head into their clash off a bye, straight after which Michigan hosts Indiana then travels to Penn State. The season finale sees them host Ohio State, a team they’ve beaten once in the last eight contests. The route to salvation for Harbaugh is not an easy one.
Prediction: 8-4
5. Maryland Terrapins
After some serious turmoil in the DMV the last few years, Mike Locksley deserves credit for bringing some stability to this Maryland program, even if his record doesn’t suggest as much. Entering his third season as head coach of the Terps, Locksley sports a 5-12 record, skewed massively by a COVID disrupted 2020 that resulted in a 2-3 record as games were cancelled. Off the field, Locksley has made huge strides, both in recruiting and culture – whilst on it, there’s been enough progress for fans to start believing…
Upon his hiring at College Park, Locksley immediately brought over Taulia Tagovailoa with him to Maryland. The former ‘Bama OC helped recruit Tua’s younger brother and offered him the opportunity to start at Maryland, and Taulia took it. Unquestionably the leader of this high-octane offense, Tagovailoa is expected to make a huge leap in 2021 and fulfill his potential. Dontay Demus leads a deep receiving group set to help their QB do just that; Jeshaun Jones, Rakim Jarrett and Nebraska transfer Marcus Fleming is as potent a pass catching quartet as you will find in this conference, and this passing game should be electric.
Locksley’s recruiting prowess has shown most promise on the other side of the ball, which should be the strongest defense they’ve had since his appointment. Nine starters return, with the secondary full of athleticism and playmaking ability; look for safety Nick Cross to be a human highlight reel, whilst cornerback Tarheeb Still will shadow WR1’s all year. Up front, question marks against the run will determine just how far this team can progress in 2021.
It’s not an easy conference schedule, with most of the winnable games on the road and the suspected losses coming at Maryland Stadium, but The Terps, when they show up, have the ability to hang with anyone on their day. They’ll win a couple they shouldn’t (Michigan? West Virginia?) and maybe lose one they shouldn’t (Rutgers?), but with this talent they should definitely be targeting a bowl game come the end of the year.
Prediction: 5-7
6. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Greg Schiano was born to coach Rutgers. Back when they were in the Big East, Schiano was head coach of this underwhelming program for eleven seasons, and amazingly left with a winning record (68-67). They had winning seasons in six of those campaigns, and in 2006 won eleven games and was ranked 12th nationally. Schiano returned to Rutgers last year at their lowest ebb, and despite things getting more difficult in the Big Ten, won three games in 2020 – their most conference wins since 2012.
Schiano IS Rutgers football, and they will get better this year. Supremely well coached, this program returns TWENTY ONE starters; on offense this team will remain focused on the ground game under second year OC Sean Gleeson, with Isaih Pacheco an explosive athlete in the backfield. This rushing attack will need to be dominant to keep the ball out of the hands of Noah Vedrell as much as possible, who despite some healthy experience isn’t going to consistently move the chains for this offense. A youthful offensive line in 2020 comes back battle tested and should be one of the most improved o-lines in the conference.
Schiano is excited about his back seven in 2021, particularly the linebacking corps led by Olakunle Fatukasi who has almost 200 tackles in his Rutgers career. But perhaps the real tangible improvement will come up front, where The Scarlet Knights looked a little thin, maybe even soft in 2020 – Mike Tverdov is a favourite for a breakout year and should lead the team’s pass rush, whilst nose tackle Julius Turner will be a key piece in the unit’s improvement against the run. This D will be ready to go against any offense they encounter. Oh, and keep an eye out for special teams – ranked 5th in the nation last season and with everyone back, they also add Joshua Youngblood from Kansas State – the 2019 Big 12 ST player of the year.
All three non-conference games are winnable for Schiano and his team, which could give this resurgent program a 3-0 start and some momentum before they play Michigan in the big house. That would be some place to make a statement, but perhaps the homecoming game against MSU, a trip to Illinois or the finale against Maryland provide better opportunities for Big Ten victories. Expect a jump, but talk of a bowl game might be a little out of reach this year
Prediction: 5-7
7. Michigan State Spartans
Mel Tucker started off behind the curve in East Lansing last year, and has never truly gotten ahead of it. Mark Dantonio’s late retirement saw Michigan State throw a lot of money at the former Colorado HC to come to the Big Ten, and starting out as a pandemic struck meant little to no chance for him and his staff to work with this team. A 2-5 season was the result, but most people will consider it a mulligan for Tucker – and beating Michigan will have given him some unexpected credit in the bank. Having said that, this program is far from ready to get back to playing the noisy neighbour, either in the Great Lakes State or in the Big Ten.
Arriving after signing day, Tucker’s only way of bolstering the roster was via the transfer portal, and he wasn’t shy in using it. Whilst the decision is yet to be made, former Temple QB Anthony Russo looks to have the edge on sophomore Peyton Thorne. He’ll have a veteran o-line in front of him and a pair of legitimate weapons to throw to in Jayden Reed and Ricky White, who achieved cult status with his 196 yards against the Wolverines last year. Running back Kenneth Walker transfers in from Wake Forest, and looks to lead this rushing attack after compiling 1,158 yards over two years in Winston-Salem.
Things aren’t as pretty on defense. Last year saw The Spartans give up the most points per game in the school’s history (35.1) – a far cry from the stingy units found in the Dantonio era. Things will surely improve, but by how much? The pass rush couldn’t lay a glove on opposing quarterbacks in 2020 (just 12 sacks all year), and all five of their interceptions came from CB Shakur Brown, who left for the NFL. Some big name transfers arrive in the secondary (Xaiver Henderson, FSU, Ronald Williams, Bama) to address the takeaway concerns – MSU was -14 in turnover differential last year.
The Spartans could double their win totals from last year, but any more than that based on talent, schedule and the small timeframe Tucker has had to work in would be asking too much. Two of their three non-conference games look winnable, although WKU are no pushovers this year. Then the meat and potatoes of this slate is actually kinder than expected – home games against Nebraska, and Maryland could be targeted for W’s, whilst hosting and beating Michigan for the Paul Bunyan Trophy on the back of a bye week would please the fans. The jury is still out on the new regime, but baby steps in 2021 – with significant progress thereafter – will be the barometer of success for this program going forward.
Prediction: 4-8
WEST
1. Wisconsin Badgers
Are Wisconsin ready to make a run at the College Football Playoffs? After an uncharacteristic year where the Badgers toiled to a 4-3 record in 2020, the program looks in a much healthier condition this offseason. Paul Chryst returns for his seventh season in Madison, and has replaced the departed talent to get back to the levels he is used to – Wisconsin have had a winning season every year he’s been in charge, and four of them had double-digit wins.
With such a disrupted offseason last year, this team struggled to find the right successors to some key pieces on their offense, notably RB Jonathan Taylor, WR Quintez Cephus and OL Tyler Biadasz. This time round things are much different; always reliant on a run heavy scheme in the frozen north, The Badgers have a running back group that is deep and talented. Jalen Berger will be the lead back, and he’ll be backed up by Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi and a talented trio of freshmen in Guerendo, Schipper and Allen. With a strong ground game and an o-line that allowed just 12 sacks last year, expect quarterback Graham Mertz to explode in this offense in 2021.
The major highlight of last year was Wisconsin’s defense; they had four shutouts in the first six games, and limited opponents to a remarkable 17.4 points per game. This unit also loses some talent to the NFL in Rachad Wildgoose (CB) and Isaiahh Loudermilk (DE), but the quality throughout the roster is evident; they’re stout up front and tough to run on, have an aggressive playmaking secondary, and most of all a linebacking corps that is one of the best in the nation. Jack Sanborn and Leo Chenal will push for conference honours as this Badgers defense looks set to be one of the best in the Big Ten, if not the nation.
The schedule is favourable too; Just four official road games and all should be wins. They avoid Ohio State from the East, and play the tougher teams on their schedule at home (Iowa, Penn State). They round off September against Notre Dame at Soldier Field, but even that game is coming off a bye week – it really isn’t inconceivable that Chryst goes undefeated through the regular season. Even a loss to The Irish wouldn’t completely kill off playoff hopes if they were able to win (against, presumably, The Buckeyes) in the conference title game.
Prediction: 12-0, Division Winners
2. Iowa Hawkeyes
Wisconsin will have to be wary of the Hawkeyes in their pursuit of the West division. Iowa have been mightily close in recent seasons to being a challenger for the Big Ten and in the conversation for the playoffs, and last season was the prefect case in point; in Kirk Ferentz’s TWENTY SECOND season in charge, this program lost their first two games before handily running the table for the last six – albeit against a soft schedule. Those first two games? They lost by a combined total of five points. The last time Iowa was in the title game was 2015 – the last time they won the conference was back in 2004. It shouldn’t be considered overambitious for Ferentz and co. to have those ambitions heading into 2021.
The passing game suffers some losses as receiver Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Shaun Beyer and Brandon Smith departs, but there is still talent for quarterback Spencer Petras to target. Charlie Jones will lead this receiving corps, and had an impressive first year in Iowa City after transferring from Buffalo – if he can add some TD’s to his healthy yardage he’ll take the next step. But having said all that, the run game will be the bread and butter of this offense as 2020 1st team Big Ten ball carrier Tyler Goodson returns. A weapon on the ground and through the air, Goodson could elevate his status to one of the best running backs in the nation.
Defensively, Iowa loses some dudes – particularly up front – but it won’t matter. Each year Ferentz has this unit retooled and ready to roll, and you can expect the likes of Zach Vanvalkenburg, John Waggoner and Noah Shannon to replace the production of departees Chauncey Golston, Daviyon Nixon and Jack Heflin. The linebackers will be even stronger despite missing Nick Niemann, and the secondary is an elite unit that is stacked with talent and returns all four starters from 2020. Longtime coordinator Phil Parker has a two-deep roster as capable as any in his tenure at Kinnick Stadium.
There’s a lot of similarities to be found between Iowa and Wisconsin. Two things separate them heading into this year; The Badgers project to be better at quarterback, and their schedule is easier. As well as having to travel to Madison in the key game on October 30th, Iowa also has the battle for the CyHawk trophy in week 2, on the road against a very handy Iowa State. They’ll likely be road dogs for both those contests and for good reason. But regardless, a strong season awaits the Hawkeyes.
Prediction: 10-2
3. Northwestern Wildcats
Did you know when Pat Fitzgerald became head coach of Northwestern he was just 31 years old? Taking the reins after the unexpected death of Randy Walker, not many could foresee the success that was to come; an internal promotion mere weeks before the start of the 2006 season, the former Wildcat linebacker has never looked back. Predominantly an academic institution, their head coach has won 10 games three times, lost more than 8 games just once, had this program nationally ranked five times, and they’ve taken the Big Ten West twice in the last three years.
Returning just eight starters from 2021, there is going to be a natural regression for the Wildcats. In order to combat the talent exodus, Fitzgerald has targeted the transfer portal again, particularly at quarterback after the success of Peyton Ramsey last year; Ryan Hillinski (South Carolina) and Hunter Johnson (Clemson) will battle it out for the starting job – both were top 100 recruits coming out of high school. The problem for whoever wins the job is who they will throw to; there isn’t a tight end or a receiver on this roster who caught more than seven passes for Northwestern last year. They do at least have consistency up front, and the run game with Evan Hull and Andrew Clair should be stable, but going up against some top defenses will really test this unit.
Defense is Fitgerald’s side of the football, and he usually has it humming every year. He and first year DC Jim O’Neil will have their work cut out as they look to patch holes in the back seven; team captain and heartbeat of the program Paddy Fisher finally leaves Evanston, trying to stick in the NFL, and his leadership alone will be impossible to replace, let alone his insane tackling numbers. At least up front they have a pair of quality veterans in Samdup Miller (opted out of 2020) and Trevor Kent (injured for the most of 2020), who they will hope settle straight back into the lineup. They will rely on them to stay competitive, particularly against the run.
No Ohio State, Penn State or Indiana from the East will give Northwestern a glimmer of hope they can make the title game for the third time in four seasons. But having Iowa and Wisconsin back to back in November, the latter on the road, will likely see them on the outside looking in. Some trap games loiter on the schedule, and how The Wildcats cope in those contests will determine if they make a bowl game or not. It won’t be 2020, but another solid year will build further into the legacy of Fitzgerald and what he has achieved just north of Chicago.
Prediction: 7-5
4. Purdue Boilermakers
We’re into the belly of the Big Ten West here, and there isn’t really all that much separating four of these football programs. With that in mind, perhaps the team with a handful of individual superstars in waiting can enjoy a surprise step up in 2021. West Lafayette has never been the most accessible or attractive destination for recruits, yet Jeff Brohm has won his fair share of talent over the four years he’s been there – the most obvious candidates being Rondale Moore, Brycen Hopkins, Markus Bailey and Derrick Barnes. As those guys now ply their trade in the NFL, a new crop of talent has come to the fore for the Boilermakers.
Not that you would think it from their performance last year. 2-4 in the Big Ten is the worst record in Brohm’s tenure, which has seen the program go backwards – 7 wins in 2017 to 6, to 4, then 2 last year.So why the (relative) optimism? Well, as mentioned, they have game changing talent on this roster, and on offense it comes in the form of receiver David Bell. Eight touchdowns off just 53 touches last year is an absurd return for a receiver who, with the ball in his hands, is every bit as dangerous as any weapon in college football. With four quarterbacks vying for the job this spring and Brohm yet to anoint a starter, whoever is under center will rely on his ability to make things happen.
On defense, there are two big names to look out for. George Karlaftis was featured on Rory Daniels’ top five edge rusher article earlier this week, and it’s because he’s an absolute monster – he only played twice last season, but as a true freshman in 2019 he was a one-man wrecking machine, wracking up 17 TFL’s and 7.5 sacks. Offensive lines struggle to contain him for 60 minutes and he’s the key to success for Purdue on this side of the ball. In the secondary, Cory Trice is something of a takeaway artist with three picks as a redshirt freshman in 2019. There’s plenty of problems elsewhere on defense, but if these two guys can get over a forgettable 2020 and fulfill the promise they showed in their first full years then this unit will be entertaining at the very least.
With the 5th hardest schedule in the FBS, this is pretty much where the optimism dries up. Road games at Notre Dame, Iowa and Ohio State is as ugly as it gets, and they also land Indiana from the East too. Despite that, they have enough winnable contests at home to be able to get bowl eligible. They’ll need to stay healthy, see significant growth and have their fair share of luck, but they’ll be better than recent seasons. As always, Purdue will be worth tuning in for.
Prediction: 6-6
5. Minnesota Golden Gophers
A 3-4 record in an upside down year with a boat load of star players just headed to the NFL didn’t come close to tarnishing the job that PJ Fleck has done since he arrived in Minnesota; an incredible third season in 2019 saw the Golden Gophers rack up eleven wins, stunning #4 ranked Penn State and barely missing out on the opportunity to play in the title game. Fleck has overcome personal tragedy and found a home in Minneapolis, creating a real family feel to this program that has his players all in on the ‘Row The Boat’ or ‘Ski U Mah’ culture.
Minnesota looks set to bounce back somewhat in 2021 – ten starters on each side of the ball return, giving Fleck some veteran experience that this team sorely lacked last year. Quarterback Tanner Morgan returns for his senior year, and with a very strong o-line in front of him will look to get closer to his 2019 numbers, when he set the Big Ten alight. Guards Conner Olsen and Blaise Andries, and center John Michael Schmitz will be looking to finalise their NFL resumes with another year of excellence, a great sign for Morgan but also running back Mohamed Ibrahim, who went for over 1,000 yards in just seven games last year. The last couple of years has seen some receiving talent depart (Jefferson, Johnson, Bateman) and is without doubt the weakest aspect of the offense.
The defense suffered a major dropoff last season, and despite some talent across the unit, it’s still a work in progress. DC Joe Rossi will look to Nyles Pinckney – who comes over from Clemson – to spark a turnaround up front. Pinckney will spearhead this 4-2-5 scheme and improve the run game, whilst edge rusher Boye Mafe will hope to improve on the 4.5 sacks he racked up last year. On the back end they lose Benjamin St-Juste, a year removed from Antoine Winfield going pro, but cornerback Coney Durr will be joined by four other starting seniors in the secondary and that experience alone should guarantee improvement.
Somebody has to play Ohio State in week 1 right? The Gophers won’t have a great start to the season, and the schedule brings them some tricky road games (Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern). But much like Purdue, there’s a definite path to a .500 record here, and maybe more if Fleck and co. catch some breaks.
Prediction: 6-6
6. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Three years, a 12-20 record, and 9-17 in the Big Ten; I think it’s fair to say that things haven’t gone too well for Scott Frost on his return to Lincoln. The prodigal son and former Husker QB came home after leading unfancied UCF to an undefeated season and a Peach Bowl win over Auburn, but Nebraska have suffered three losing seasons on his watch. His history at Memorial Stadium is not forgotten and he has some cachet in the bank with the Husker faithful, but another year of toil and that will quickly run out.
The worrying thing for Nebraska is their lack of cohesion on offense, the so-called forte of their head coach. Quarterback Adrian Martinez was hailed as the next big thing following a promising freshman year, but since then has almost regressed. Last season saw him share gametime with Luke McCaffrey, who transferred to Rice (via Louisville) this offseason. That leaves Martinez the man under center, and reports suggest he could be back to his best. Some incoming transfers should help his cause – receivers Samori Toure (Montana) and Oliver Martin (Iowa) will likely be immediate starters in a talent short position group, and the backfield will be deeper with the addition of Markese Stepp (USC). With a full offseason to work with, this offense could do with some of the old Scott Frost magic to get in cohesion quickly.
A poor defense in 2020 is a common theme in the Big Ten West, and Nebraska are no exception. Conceding almost 30 points a game was their worst performance in the 21st Century, but with ten starters back they’ll be expecting a lot more this year. The key to improvement is at linebacker, where they’re as deep as they have been under Frost. In DC Erik Chinander’s 3-4 base defense, look for Ben Stille up front and Caleb Tannor (OLB) to provide the pressure on the backfield, but they’ll want to walk away with a whole lot more than the combined four sacks of last year. At the very least the run game should be stout, with Luke Reimer and Northern Iowa transfer Chris Kolarevic patrolling the middle of the field.
If the Huskers want a bowl game, they’ll have to do it the hard way; a schedule that is ranked in the top ten or difficulty in 2021 sees them lock horns with their usual West foes, get the Buckeyes in cross-conference play AND travel to Norman to face the Sooners in September. We are yet to see how an NCAA investigation into extra practice violations through COVID reveals any wrongdoing, but the situation won’t help them on the field. Throw a lack of star recruits and relying on transfers into the mix, and I think they end up falling short. Scott Frost is on thin ice.
Prediction: 5-7
7. Illinois Fighting Illini
Welcome back to the Big Ten Brett Bielema! The former Wisconsin head coach takes the reins of the Fighting Illini after Lovie Smith was fired in December; a record of 17-39 across nearly five years contributed to his downfall, excellent beard or not. Bielema comes with pedigree, having coached Wisconsin for seven years and amassed 68 wins. Madison offered the larger than life head coach a winning environment – Champaign, most likely, does not.
Illinois hasn’t had a winning season since Ron Zook dug out seven wins over a decade ago. This program has some pedigree, but it seems long forgotten, and recruiting has been difficult. In that sense, Bielema was an astute hire, his charisma surely able to lure in some better classes. They’ll need them, because on both sides of the ball this program is far from the standard necessary to compete in this conference.
The one plus for Bielema, a man who played o-line and builds through the trenches, is that this Illinis program is strong up front. Kendrick Green will be a big loss but don’t be surprised to see some names on this line be in the NFL in twelve months time. That bodes well for the run game, which itself is a position group that has some depth, if not star talent – Chase Brown likely leads the way after his 540 yards last year. As far as the passing game goes, the new regime will be best served keeping the ball out of the hands of the cannon-armed Brandon Peters, because he simply has nobody to throw to.
It took some time, but Lovie Smith did see some growth from his defense in 2020, shaving the yards allowed per game by 100. Unfortunately that took it down from an embarrassing 508 yards to a poor 408 yards, so there’s still work to be done. There is talent to be found if you squint hard enough (edge Owen Carney, CB Tony Adams), but this unit was in such disarray the rebuild will be a project that spans years, not months.
UTSA and Charlotte – both at home – on the out of conference schedule should give Illinois two W’s, and I’m confident they can find one Big Ten victory – the season opener this Saturday is absolutely huge for both programs. But Illini football won’t be fixed overnight. I love the hire, and the fir of Brett Bielema with what pieces they do have makes total sense. Give the new boss two years of coaching and recruiting and then let’s see where we are.
Prediction: 3-9
