Conference Preview 2023: Big 12
By Simon Carroll
A team-by-team analysis of the Big 12, the season ahead and final standings predictions.
1. Texas Longhorns
2022: 8-5 (6-3)
Texas is back. Three words that have haunted this football program ever since Vince Young tore USC to pieces and the Longhorns last ruled the College Football universe. As they enter their final season in the Big 12, can they finally do those words justice and win a conference title for the first time in 14 years?
Nobody who has a passion for burnt orange will think that last year’s 8-5 record was good enough, but it was an improvement in Steve Sarkisian’s second season in Austin. Sark also had success on the recruiting trail, reeling in the white whale of Arch Manning, and enjoying the predictable knock-on effect.
With all that said, where does it leave Texas in 2023? Well, quite simply, there are no excuses. The Longhorns have the most talented roster in the conference, with sixteen returning starters. Whilst the running game was dented with the losses of Bijan Robinson and Roschon Johnson, the offense should still be dangerous; Quinn Ewers is set to explode with Xavier Worthy, Jordan Whittington and Ja’Tavion Sanders to target.
On defense, this team is stacked across the board. The coaching staff did well to reel in two impact transfers in Minnesota nose Trill Carter and safety Jalen Catalon, the latter of which looks set to start if he’s over his persistent knee injuries. Keep an eye out for 2nd year edge rusher Justice Finkley, who will command more snaps in his second year on campus.
Verdict: 11-1 (9-0): It’s Texas, so let’s assume they flatter to deceive. But if they finaly live up to the hype, then an undefeated conference schedule is very much on the cards – despite having the 10th toughest schedule in the FBS in 2023. The Longhorns should have one eye on the playoffs.
2. Oklahoma Sooners
2022: 6-7 (3-6)
Following in the footsteps of Lincoln Riley was no mean feat. But I don’t think anyone anticipated the dropoff from 11 wins and finishing 10th in the nation to a losing record and just three conference wins. And don’t even mention the 49-0 pasting they received from their bitter rivals Texas; Brent Venables has a big job on his hands to get the Sooners back to standards expected in Norman.
There’s good news on that front. The Sooners should have a markedly improved team in 2023. They return 13 starters, amongst them quarterback Dillon Gabriel, who if he can stay healthy has a shot to be the leading passer in the conference. Receiver Jalil Farooq is a breakout candidate with the departure of Marvin Mims. But it’s Oklahoma’s run game that should set the tone, with Marcus Major and Javontae Barnes a dangerous one-two punch.
OU was atrocious on defense last season, and they simply cannot be as bad in 2023. A big recruitment drive saw eight guys come in via the transfer portal, suggesting Venables is expecting a quick turnaround from this unit. Danny Stutsman (LB), Rondell Bothroyd (EDGE) and Billy Bowman (S) look to be the key contributors.
Verdict: 10-2 (7-2): A fairly friendly schedule means The Sooners should pip Kansas State for that second spot. They’re lucky they don’t play the Wildcats, who could definitely turn them over. Their talent level gives them the edge, meaning both teams leaving the conference will be playing for the Big 12 title before they depart.
3. Kansas State Wildcats
2022: 10-4 (7-2) – Big 12 Champions
With TCU capturing the nation’s attention with their run to the playoffs last year, it’s easy to forget that Kansas State actually won the Big 12 in 2022. Registering 10 wins for the first time since he came to Manhattan, head coach Chris Klieman is a talented leader who has done well to keep the Wildcats not just competitive, but a force in the conference.
There are some obstacles to overcome if K-State are to get back to the conference title game this season. The offense has lost it’s starting quarterback and running back – Adrian Martinez and Deuce Vaughn were two of the biggest reasons for the team’s success last year. The only QB with experience on this roster is Will Howard, who looks set to take the reins. Plenty is expected of him, and he’ll need to produce as the run game looks set to take a step back. The good news is he’ll be operating behind one of the best o-lines in the nation.
There are more questions on defense, which coordinator Joe Klanderman has done impressive work with the past three years. Six starters depart, but the strength of this unit will remain it’s linebackers and run defense. Take note of safety Kobe Savage, who had three picks in eight games last year and could be even more dangerous as a junior.
Verdict: 9-3 (7-2): There are way too many banana skins on this schedule for me to put K-State back in the title game, despite my confidence in the coaching staff. An opening conference game against UCF as well as trips to Texas Tech and Texas probably results in two conference losses.Â
4. Texas Tech Red Raiders
2022: 8-5 (5-4)
Joey McGuire hit the ground running in Lubbock last year. In his first season as head coach, the Red Raiders won eight games – something they haven’t done in a decade. Embracing the air raid offense, McGuire not only won a bowl game against Ole Miss, but also beat both Texas and Oklahoma in the same year – something not even the late great Mike Leach achieved.
17 starters return, and hopes are high for another strong campaign. But can they challenge the elite in the conference for the Big 12 title? Tyler Shough returns under center, and providing he can stay healthy is the undisputed starter. The Red Raiders had far more output in the five games the former Duck started in 2022. He’ll team up with running back duo Tahj Brooks and Cam’Ron Valdez to give TTU a potent offense.
The big loss on defense will be sack master Tyree Wilson – but he’s the ONLY loss on the defensive line, as all the other starters are back. Wilson will be replaced by Syracuse transfer Steve Linton, who will pair up with Myles Cole & continue to wreak havoc up front. DC Tim DeRuyter should oversee an even better unit in his second season.
Verdict: 8-4 (6-3): Texas Tech are everyone’s dark horses for a reason. Joey McGuire has brought a feel good factor to this program in quick fashion. If it wasn’t for a fairly testing schedule, I’d have them even further up this list.
5. TCU Horned Frogs
2022: 13-2 (9-0)
A spectacular first year in Fort Worth saw Sonny Dykes take TCU all the way to the National Championship game in 2022 – behind the arm of ‘backup’ quarterback Max Duggan. Dykes was rightfully named Coach of the Year, but expecting the Horned Frogs to replicate that success is probably unfair.
Duggan, a Heisman finalist and Davey O’Brien award winner, has left for the NFL, meaning last year’s supposed starter Chandler Morris looks set to make the job his once more. He’ll be behind an offensive line that has lost some starters but isn’t bereft of talent; but this unit across the board lacks experience. TCU’s biggest offensive weapon is probably Savion Williams, a possession receiver in the mould of the departed Quentin Johnston.
Things look more healthy on defense. They have to contend with the loss of Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, but other than that they return a lot of veterans – and some savvy transfer portal additions have added some much needed depth too. Their strength remains the secondary, with former Florida Gator Avery Helm joining Josh Newton to offer the best corner pairing in the conference.
Verdict: 8-4 (5-4): The schedule starts pleasantly enough, but a five game run-in of K-State, TTU, Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma is a tough end to the campaign. A lot went right for Dykes and this program in 2022, and it’s only natural to expect a regression, but TCU will be competitive in the Big 12 once again.
6. Baylor Bears
2022: 6-7 (4-5)
The amount of programs that could conceivably challenge for a conference title in 2022 tells you just how exciting the Big 12 is shaping up to be this year. So much so that, even though I have them sixth, Baylor are not to be overlooked…
Dave Aranda flattened the curve to win the conference title two seasons ago. And unsurprisingly, the Bears fell back into the pack this past campaign. But they’re really not far from being back up there, and this offseason is cause for optimism in Waco.
The talented but inconsistent Blake Shapen returns at quarterback, but head coach Dave Aranda preaches competition, and has brought in two transfers to do just that. Sawyer Robinson, formally of Mississippi State, has impressed so far – and Shapen’s leash will be short. Baylor will have a heavy focus on the run game, with Dominic Richardson the lead protagonist. But the o-line is in flux, and there’ll be some ups and downs.
Defense is where the Bears win football games in 2023. Gabe Hall has the potential be the best 5-tech in the conference, a rare blend of power and speed that will have NFL scouts drooling. Aranda brings back former safeties coach Matt Powledge to run this unit, and they look set to be very stingy indeed.
Verdict: 7-5 (5-4): The Bears get back to a bowl game with coaches, personnel and a playbook all in the mould of their talented head coach. A solid season that bodes well for 2024.
7. UCF Knights
2022: 9-5 (N/A)
One of four new members to the Big 12, UCF figure to be the program best equipped to compete at this higher level. Gus Malzahn has found a second wind in Orlando, winning 9 games in both seasons at the helm. They nearly bowed out of the American Athletic Conference with a title win, but all eyes will now be firmly on what they can achieve in their new home.
The Knights will live and die by the arm (and health) of John Rhys Plumlee. ‘JRP’ is a feisty, dual-threat competitor who can drag this team to wins as only the best can. He has a deep, talented receiver core to help him out, led by Javon Baker who had 800 yards last year. Despite losing three starters, the o-line still has an experienced, veteran group and should hold up against the inconsistent Big 12 defenses.
UCF doesn’t struggle to attract players, and the transfer portal provided them with some defensive additions this offseason. Ex-MTSU cornerback Decorian Patterson brings incredible production to the Bounce House and looks set to start immediately, whilst former Georgia Bulldog Rian Davis will be the lynchpin of this unit as the Mike linebacker. New DC Addison Williams inherits a feisty unit with a lot to prove…
Verdict: 7-5 (5-4): As good a start to life in the Big 12 as UCF could realistically expect, thanks to a pleasant enough schedule and an influx in talent via the transfer portal. Malzahn is a Power 5 head coach – the Knights will not be intimidated by the step up.
8. Oklahoma State Cowboys
2022: 7-6 (4-5)
Mike Gundy hasn’t had a losing season in Stillwater since his debut season back in 2005. That is quite the achievement, but it’s also a record that is under threat in 2023 if you listen to certain quarters of the media.
This is through no fault of Gundy’s own, it should be said. The Big 12 is stacked, and the Cowboys lose their starting quarterback and running back. Both Spencer Sanders and Dominic Richardson transfer out, marking something of a rebuild on offense. Former Texas Tech QB Alan Bowman likely beats out Garret Rangel and Gunner Gundy, but will be operating behind perhaps the worst o-line in the conference. He will have a 1,000 yard receiver to target in De’Zhaun Stribling, and can lean on an exciting running back duo in Ollie Gordon and Elijah Collins, who comes over from Michigan State.
For Oklahoma State to compete, they need to improve on defense. Bryan Nardo is the third DC in as many years, and has a task on his hands trying to make this team more stout against the run. Linebacker Kendal Daniels impressed as a freshman last year, and looks set to be the heartbeat of this unit.
Verdict: 7-5 (5-4): A very friendly schedule makes me think Gundy can keep his longstanding record intact, and even post a winning one in the conference. A lot of talent migration, both in and out, might see some teething problems at the outset. But The Pokes are far from the lost cause being made out.
9. Kansas Jayhawks
2022: 6-7 (3-6)
Kansas’ six wins in 2022 was the most victories the Jayhawks have registered in fifteen years. The job Lance Leipold has done in just two short seasons in Lawrence is nothing short of impressive – and it doesn’t feel like this is a flash in the pan either.
This season, the plan will to be to improve on their conference record. With 17 starters returning, Kansas have perhaps the most stable position heading into 2023 – with an undisputed superstar under center to boot. Jalon Daniels threw for 2,000 yards and ran for 425 more last year, with a TD:INT ratio of 25:4. If the Jayhawks are somehow going to eclipse their 2022 season, it will be because of their quarterback. That said, don’t sleep on running back Devin Neal, who broke 1,000 yards last season and is a threat in the passing game too.
After a 5-0 start, KU capitulated down the stretch, primarily due to their defense collapsing. Stopping the run was a problem and looks to be their kryptonite again, although Leipold has added FIVE defensive line transfers to address the issue. The stength of this unit remains their predatory secondary, with Cobee Bryant and Kenny Logan likely to make conference honours again.
Verdict: 6-6 (4-5): A hellish schedule that includes both Texas & Oklahoma and tricky home ties against UCF, Texas Tech & K-State, consider matching last year’s record as success for the Jayhawks.
10. Iowa State Cyclones
2022: 4-8 (1-8)
The mere fact that the Cyclones’ 1-8 conference record was met with raised eyebrows tells you everything you need to know about how Matt Campbell has elevated expectation in Ames. Once considered the whipping boys of the conference, Iowa State fans have become accustomed to winning records under their talented head coach. Whilst bouncing back to that standard may prove elusive in 2023, there’s every reason to think this team will be more competitive this year than last.
The Cylones’ offense took a step back in 2022 as they found it tough to replace the production of Brock Purdy and Breece Hall. This year, things are different. Nine starters return, including Hunter Dekkers who showed promise – and fight too, saving his best games for the tougher opponents in the conference. He’ll have to do it without star receiver Xavier Hutchinson, who now plies his trade in the NFL. But ISU do have a strong, varied backfield to keep defenses honest.
Will McDonald, the star edge rusher, will probably prove difficult to replace. That being said, this defense looks as healthy as it has been in Campbell’s tenure, with the top two tacklers returning and a stingy secondary led by corners Myles Purchase and TJ Tampa. If Tyler Onyedim and Joey Petersen can put pressure on the quarterback, this will be a tough unit to contain.
Verdict: 5-7 (3-6): My optimism for improvement from the Cyclones in 2023 is tempered by an evil schedule that doesn’t meet Houston, West Virginia or UCF. Matt Campbell has made a career out of upsetting the odds though, and Iowa State will be much more dangerous this season.
11. BYU Cougars
2022: 8-5 (N/A)
It’s been 13 years since BYU were affiliated with a conference. More than a decade as an independent, firstly under Bronco Mendenhall and now Kalani Sitake, the Cougars have been consistent performers who have threatened to challenge the FBS heavyweights. Now a member of the Big 12, they have the platform to do just that.
There’ll probably be a period of acclimation first. Sitake is an excellent head coach who has won 29 games in the past three years. But with the schedule no longer fully of their own creation, life will be made more difficult. They do bring to the conference an elite run game led by Aidan Robbins, who tore it up at UNLV last year and will hope to do the same in Provo. He’ll be working with the nomadic Kedon Slovis, who assumes the QB1 role after transferring in from Pitt. If he fails to impress, there are whispers about JuCo transfer Jake Retzlaff, who threw for 4,600 yards last season.
The BYU defense of 2022 wasn’t quite to recent Cougars standards, but will hope to improve this term. The secondary remains the biggest cause for concern, with new DC Jay Hill bringing over some reinforcements with him from Weber State. But the defensive front remains stout, and new recruits Jackson Cravens (DT) and Isaiah Bagnah (DE) should both make an immediate impact afte rleaving the blue turf of Boise behind.
Verdict: 5-7 (3-6): Five Big 12 road trips is a mean way to roll out the welcome mat, and out of their conference home games only one looks to be a guaranteed win. BYU are well coached and extremely disciplined so stealing another couple of wins isn’t out of the question. This program will find it’s feet quickly.
12. Houston Cougars
2022: 8-5 (N/A)
Houston are finally in the conference they have coveted for decades. A program that just needed a Power 5 home to truly reach it’s potential, head coach Dana Holgorsen now has the opportunity to make UH a real force in College Football.
They will have to bide their time though. Their entry into a tougher conference couldn’t really come at a worse time, with half of last year’s starters departing. This includes dangerous QB-WR duo Clayton Tune and Tank Dell, and replacing that production will be difficult. Holgorsen has recognised the need for Big 12 experience, and has brought in former TTU QB Donovan Smith to take the reins of this offense. He’ll be operating behind an experienced o-line, and has a strong run game to complement him led by WVU transfer Tony Mathis.
The defense has lost a lot of starters, and it might be that Houston fully embraces the Big 12’s penchant for shootouts in their debut season. The D-Line and secondary sees a lot of turnover – ECU transfer Malik Fleming is one to watch after a productive career with the Pirates. The Cougar’s linebacker corps looks experienced and likely sets the tone in what will be a testing year.
Verdict: 5-7 (2-7): Houston’s future in this conference looks set to be a lot rosier than the present. But bank on Holgorsen and his staff to have this program up to the levels of their conference rivals relatively quickly.
13. Cincinnati Bearcats
2022: 9-4 (N/A)
How time flies. Gatecrashing the College Football Playoffs just two years ago, the Bearcats now find themselves with a new Head Coach in a new conference. Cincinnati have long harboured a desire to be a Power 5 school, and their wish has finally come true. Presumably, most fans would have preferred to have Luke Fickell navigating new waters. But their talented leader departed to Wisconsin, and Scott Satterfield comes in to take the reins.
How Satterfield got this job is something of a mystery, considering his inconsistent tenure in Louisville. The Cardinals were considering firing him last year before a midseason turn of fortunes bought him some time – but there wasn’t many tears shed upon his departure. He brings with him two new coordinators that has to contend with a roster that has lost half of their starters – including quarterback Ben Bryant, running back Charles McLelland and their top EIGHT receivers. Calling this a rebuild year may be an understatement.
Things are a little better on defense. The defensive line is probably the team’s best asset, with only Jabari Taylor moving on. Elsewhere, Satterfield has raided the portal, including going back to Louisville for linebacker Dorian Jones. They hope to benefit from a fairly friendly schedule, but the talent level doesn’t match up to that of their opponents.
Verdict: 3-9 (1-8): Welcome to the big leagues, Cincy.Â
14. West Virginia Mountaineers
2022: 5-7 (3-6)
West Virginia is not an easy job. Something of an outpost before the conference expanded, the Mountaineers have always felt a little like an outsider in the Big 12. To that end, taking WVU to two bowl games in four seasons is commendable work from Neal Brown, having never won less than five games in a season.
Brown will have to prove people wrong once again, because things look tough in 2023. That being said, they may be able to lean on a ground game this year – running back CJ Donaldson becomes the lead guy in the backfield, and after going for 6 yards a carry in 2022 could be a breakout star this season. He’ll be working behind a pretty mean offensive line, so hopefully that will help compensate for a limited passing game.
West Virginia have continuity on defense, with seven starters returning. DC Jordan Lesley has been with Brown since their days at Troy, but is yet to have a unit that looks capable of coping with Big 12 offenses. They are depleted up front but should improve in the secondary, where four starters return and three transfers come in.
Verdict: 2-10 (1-8): Not the best year for WVU to have a tough schedule, with Pitt & Penn State up early, and trips to TCU, Oklahoma and Baylor all on the ticket. The Mountaineers can surprise, but have a talent deficiency in the Big 12 – they face a fight to avoid the wooden spoon.
