CFB Bowl Preview 2025: Xbox Bowl
Missouri State vs Arkansas State
By Rory Daniels
Bowl season is in full swing, and we will be previewing every bowl game this year. The inaugural Xbox Bowl will be contested between the Missouri State Bears and Arkansas State Red Wolves. Let’s take a look at the key matchups.
Where and When
Location: Ford Center at The Star, Frisco, Texas
Date: Thursday December 18
Time: 9pm ET / 2am GMT
Story So Far...
Missouri State were another program that navigated the transition from FCS Football to FBS with great success. They ended their first season in the Conference USA with a 5-3 record (7-5 overall). Sixth-year head coach Ryan Beard did an excellent job, and it didn’t go unnoticed. Coastal Carolina swooped in to appoint Beard to the spot left when they fired Tim Beck. It’s a big opportunity for Beard, one of the country’s most exciting coaches, to put himself in the Power 4 frame.
The Bears weren’t disheartened by an early blowout to USC and had SMU 10-0 down in the first quarter, showing they could mix it with top talent. A mid-season 5-win streak was curtailed with two losses to end the campaign and while Beard’s staff will coach the ball game without him, there will be nerves about what the future holds.
The most apt word to describe Arkansas State’s season was ‘bouncebackability’. They were always unlikely to get anything from early outings against Arkansas and Iowa State, but they righted a 1-4 start with some impressive Sun Belt victories. They finished the season in third place in the West Division with a record of 5-3.
A last-minute touchdown in the season finale against App State clinched a bowl game spot for the Red Wolves. It means they have been bowling for the past three years, largely down to their vastly experienced Head Coach Butch Jones, now in his fifth year. They defeated Bowling Green 38-31 in the 68 Ventures Bowl last year and will hope to go back-to-back here.
The Quarterbacks
Missouri State QB Jacob Clark has bags of experience, now in his fourth year with the program and second as starter. He has prototypical size at 6’5, 220lbs and is best as a pocket passer. He threw for 2,877 yards and 24 touchdowns in 2025. His most significant blip came against SMU, when the Bears blew a 10-0 lead, in part due to 3 Clark interceptions. He needs to avoid those types of turnover here.
For Arkansas State, Jaylen Raynor will man the QB role. He threw for over 3,000 yards this season, but his yards per attempt and big-time throw % were much below Clark’s. He also had 11 interceptions, though four came in a single outing vs Southern Missouri. What Raynor does possess is rushing ability. He ran for 613 yards and seven touchdowns; on the downside, he fumbled 7 times. The Bears were strong vs the run, so will hope to limit Raynor’s running and force him to throw downfield.
Who to Watch
Missouri State
Jordan Dunbar, Cornerback
Fifth-year corner Dunbar finally found his home after stints at Rice and Kansas State. The transfer earned a PFF coverage grade of 80.0, with nine pass breakups and two interceptions. His battle with veteran outside receiver Corey Rucker will be an intriguing watch.
Arkansas State
Cody Sigler, Defensive Tackle
West Alabama transfer Sigler plays at the heart of the Red Wolves’ defense. He charted 18 defensive stops and five sacks in 2025. He will play a pivotal role in disrupting the Missouri State offensive line and getting to Jacob Clark, who has a pressure-to-sack % of 27. Sigler could make it a long day for Clark and co.
Prediction
Arkansas State start as a 1.5pt favourite in this one, and it’s difficult to bet against Butch Jones and co. They know what Bowl week is all about, and that experience always comes in handy. Dual-threat QB Jaylen Raynor adds an extra element to the offense, and this defense will hope to expose Clark’s weakness of taking sacks.
Missouri State 28-34 Arkansas State
Rory-Joe Daniels
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYST
AS A LONG-SUFFERING CINCINNATI BENGALS FAN, RORY HAS FOLLOWED THE NFL FOR OVER 20 YEARS. HIS PASSION FOR THE DRAFT LED HIM TO GET ENTANGLED WITH COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND HE HAS BEEN WRITING ABOUT PROSPECTS AND THE CFB LANDSCAPE EVER SINCE.