20 Teams, 12 Spots: The Race For A Place In The New Expanded College Football Playoffs

By Simon Carroll

College Football is a notoriously unpredictable sport. But with the new season less than three weeks away, 2024 may be the toughest year yet to get a gauge on how things will shake out. NIL, conference realignment and a coaching merry-go-round that was sparked by the retirement of the greatest to ever do it have all been factors. But undoubtedly the biggest change has been the expansion of the playoffs.

The move from a four-team knockout to a 12-team eliminator for the game’s biggest prize has been in the works for some time. A large group of programs both big and small have been demanding the change – and considering the drama of last season where an undefeated Florida State was left out of the CFP, its arrival is probably a year too late for some. Despite that, it opens up a world of possibilities, along with a whole host of questions…

Here’s what we know: the winner of each ‘Power 4’ conference will earn a spot. On top of that, at least one ‘Group of 5’ program will be in there, the highest-ranked (or most impressive of all unranked) conference winner amongst their contingent. That leaves seven places from non-conference winners up for grabs, deliciously at the mercy of the CFP voting committee who still hold unscrupulous power when it comes to determining the fates of college football teams across the United States.

By my reckoning, there are at least twenty schools who – for various reasons – will expect to be in the dance come the season’s end. Annoyingly for at least eight of them, 20 into 12 doesn’t go. Let’s look at the different contenders that could make up the first ever expanded College Football Playoff field:

SEC Set To Dominate

It just means more.

It is impossible to argue with the assertion that the SEC is the biggest and strongest conference in College Football. Since the playoff’s inception in 2014, the SEC has sent at least one team to the party every season – no other conference can say that. And yet, last year they were very fortunate to do so – almost certainly saved by an injury to Jordan Travis and the effect that would have on Florida State. On top of that, the SEC didn’t have a particularly impressive out-of-conference win-loss record either. Has the gap closed?

Probably not. The strength in depth of the SEC is insane – and adding two more powerhouse programs this offseason makes them even stronger. I count EIGHT programs from this conference that have playoff expectations for 2024:

Alabama Crimson Tide

Georgia Bulldogs

LSU Tigers

Texas Longhorns

Ole Miss Rebels

Tennessee Volunteers

Texas A&M Aggies

Missouri Tigers

Let’s start in Tuscaloosa. Alabama are the most successful team in CFP history, participating eight times out of ten seasons and lifting the trophy three times. The departure of Nick Saban may impact results but not expectations – championships are the barometer of success for the Crimson Tide. New head coach Kalen De Boer took Washington to the playoffs last year, and anything less than a repeat in 2024 will be seen as failure.

That same standard applies in Athens, Georgia, where Kirby Smart has built a monster. Sure, they missed out last year – an unusual season of insanely high performance by six teams. But that won’t change the standards for the Bulldogs. Along with Alabama and Georgia, you can add Texas, LSU and Texas A&M to the group of teams in this conference where fanbases, alumni and boosters all expect playoff football regardless of form or quality on the roster – three huge schools where recent performances may not have consistently lived up to those expectations. Of course, the Longhorns did make the playoffs last season, but that won’t ease the relentless pressure on Steve Sarkisian to better a semi-final finish, never mind match it.

The final three in this group are schools with optimism based on recent performances. Tennessee suffered slight regression in 2023, but still finished #21 in the CFP rankings – and with vast resources, a strong roster and faith in Josh Heupel, will want to gatecrash the playoffs. Missouri (#9) and Ole Miss (#11), two schools with tradition but little national success, both surpassed expectations last year, and have had offseasons to further offer hope for another strong year.

Eight teams from the SEC won’t make the playoffs. Probably half of that would be a more reasonable guess. But being reasonable is not in their nature.

Big Ten Ascension

If the SEC sets the standard, the Big Ten has not been shy in trying to emulate it. The home of the current national champions, the traditional MidWest conference has expanded both in numbers and geographically, welcoming four West Coast programs to the fold. Three of their new members will have their eye on the playoffs in 2024, joined by a further trio of more established Big Ten programs:

Michigan Wolverines

Ohio State Buckeyes

Penn State Nittany Lions

USC Trojans

Oregon Ducks

Washington Huskies

Losing a head coach that just won you a Natty may have you thinking that the Wolverines will be expecting regression this coming season. If so, you don’t know Michigan very well – despite the threat of sanctions for signal stealing looming, new leader Sherrone Moore will be expected to hit the ground running. In fact, the only head coach in this conference facing more pressure may be his arch rival; Ryan Day has had a Michigan problem for the last three years, but an expanded playoff means that even with another loss in ‘The Game’ Ohio State will still need to be in the bracket for him to keep his job. This dynamic is one of the most interesting storylines of the new look college football format.

Outside of the two heavyweights, Penn State will view the bigger playoff field as a way to circumvent the Michigan-Ohio State glass ceiling, seen as they’ve never been able to smash it under James Franklin. Make no mistake about it – this is a HUGE football program, persecuted by being in the same division as the Wolverines and Buckeyes for too long. Now, that’s no longer an excuse – the Nittany Lions need to take that next step.

And then you have the PAC-12 deserters. Washington may expect some regression with the departure of DeBoer, but the arrival of Jedd Fisch was a shrewd hire and a lot of the talent in Seattle remains. Oregon were close last year, and Dan Lanning looks primed to have the Ducks firing on all cylinders in their Big Ten debut. And USC, who have not hit the heights many envisioned under Lincoln Riley, still cling to the Pete Carroll-Reggie Bush era fondly. The chase for more money comes with a tougher conference schedule – the Trojans have a hell of a fight on their hands if they are going to live up to expectations.

The ACC - Still Alive!

If you believed the narrative coming from some programs in the ACC, you’d think the sky was falling in over on the East Coast. The bigger schools say they can’t compete financially; seven playoff participants in ten years suggests otherwise. Granted, the conference has not been represented in the last three seasons, but we can all agree the last campaign can be considered daylight robbery in that regard. So, despite protestations, I count at least three schools who will expect playoff football this year:

Florida State Seminoles

Clemson Tigers

Miami Hurricanes

I have no particular fondness for Tallahassee. But I simply do not believe that, in an alternative universe where Alabama were undefeated and Jalen Milroe had been lost for the season, that the Crimson Tide would have been left out for the Seminoles. Florida State was subject to a double-standard that emanates from a traditional SEC bias that usually is deserved, but not last season. Nevertheless, if it was a 12 team bracket in 2023, we wouldn’t have had any of this drama. In that regard, Mike Norvell will be expected to have FSU playing at a high standard once again – with the knowledge that an injustice this season is highly unlikely.

After six appearances in a row, with two titles in their trophy cabinet, Clemson have had a three-year absence from the playoffs. Despite that perceived ‘regression’, the Tigers have won 30 games over that spell – this is still a program that is tough as hell to beat. Dabo Swinney needs to show he can adjust to the new college football landscape, embrace the portal and NIL opportunities, and keep Clemson amongst the elite. If he continues to stick to his principles and gets left behind, there will be murmurs of discontent.

And yes – despite no evidence that they can make the playoffs this year, I have included Miami in this group. Why? Because much like Texas A&M, this is a program that spends a lot of money on football and has ambitions that quite simply are beyond them. And you can understand the frustrations for the Hurricanes – attracting talent to beautiful Miami with all the financial benefits that come with it should be a recipe for success right? Well, wrong. Mario Cristobal might start feeling his seat getting warm if they don’t at least make a run at the playoffs this season.

Others In The Hunt

Utah Utes

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Boise State Broncos

Without diminishing the other conferences, I’ve grouped together the remaining contenders, for different reasons. Firstly, I don’t see more than one team coming from the Big 12 – a conference that has always provided plenty of excitement and, despite the loss of Texas and Oklahoma, looks like a close call once again. Getting off the fence, I’ll go for Kyle Whittingham to have Utah winning a title game in their first season in the conference. They’re well built, have Cam Rising back for maybe the nineteenth season, and know how to win big games – something not every program in the Big 12 can attest to.

Then there’s the curious case of Notre Dame. I say curious – there’s no doubt that playoff football is demanded in South Bend. 19 wins in two years is not a bad start for Marcus Freeman, but the Fighting Irish don’t settle for Gator Bowls and Sun Bowls. They have the resources and talent to make a 12-team knockout, so anything less than that in 2024 will be a failure. Intriguingly, with P4 conference winners taking the 1-4 seeds in the new format, Notre Dame cannot achieve a first round bye in the playoffs even if they are ranked in the top four by the end of the year.

And finally, whilst no Group of Five program will EXPECT playoff football, at least one will earn it every year. I for one think that’s a good thing – the widening gulf between the haves and have nots threatens to ruin what college football is to many people, and this preserves the status of 62 FBS programs who are often forgotten but still considered a part of the highest level of the sport. Too many variables to consider here, but Boise State figures to run the Mountain West, might be the best the Group of Five have to offer – and with Ashton Jeanty in the backfield, I wouldn’t want to face them in the playoffs.

So there you have it. 20 teams, 12 spots. Who will have failed this season? As long as one of them is the Aggies, I don’t really mind. But however it all shakes out, it’s going to be one hell of a college football season.

Mock Draft

SIMON CARROLL

Lead Writer, Head Of Content

PREVIOUSLY THE FOUNDER OF NFL DRAFT UK, SIMON HAS BEEN COVERING COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND THE NFL DRAFT SINCE 2009. BASED IN MANCHESTER, SIMON IS ALSO CO-CREATOR & WEEKLY GUEST OF THE COLLAPSING POCKET PODCAST.

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