With positive COVID tests all over the NFL, we are less than 24 hours from kickoff with no certainty of how many games we will see come 6pm UK time. However, despite that, here are today’s picks out of the games currently in the early window.

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Bear Down On A Beat Up Defense

The Chicago Bears being 4-1 and the Carolina Panthers being 3-2 are the two most surprising records (in a positive sense) in the entire league, and it is entirely possible that the Panthers are favoured purely because the idea of the Bears going to 5-1 seems impossible.

However, on paper, there is not a lot between these two sides. And then you add the fact that Brian Burns, Yetur Gross-Matos, Kawann Short, Eli Apple, Donte Jackson and Zack Kerr have all been on the injury report all week and suddenly you have a defense playing back-ups at every position on the line and at cornerback. That means the Bears (21/20 with Skybet) should be favourites and it is shocking they are not.

DraftKings Thanksgiving

Elite Steel

The AFC North is a three-way battle between the Ravens, Steelers and Browns, or at least it is if you look at the odds. However, two of those are elite teams and one is not.

Equally, two of those three teams meet at Heinz Field in week six and only one of them are one of the elite teams in the AFC. Expect the Steelers to lay their elite credentials down by dismantling the Browns hype-train. The Steelers at -3.5 (evens with other bookmakers) should cover the line and then some.

Pick The Only Good Unit

Washington at the Giants is the game that even fans of the two teams don’t want to watch. The Giants’ offense is abject, and their defense even worse. Meanwhile, the Washington offense is like an early Halloween house of horrors (I was actively scared for Alex Smith when he was in the game last week) and the Washington defense is…well pretty decent. It might be the only competent unit on the field and as a result a Washington win (13/10 with Unibet) is good value.

For an added bonus, if Kyle ‘turnover’ Allen starts opposite Daniel ‘fumble’ Jones, it might be worth backing 6 or more game turnovers (13/2 with William Hill).

Min-Chews Up The Lions

Jacksonville’s defense is the entire problem for the Jaguars. Gardner Minshew and the offense are fine.

The fact remains however that the Detroit Lions are basically the same. Matt Stafford and the Lions 0ffense is ticking along nicely. The defense seems incapable of stopping anyone. As a result, the Jaguars (7/5 with William Hill and Unibet) have a decent chance of winning the game and should have enough to make it a one score game, so Jaguars +5.5 (8/13 with bet365 and Skybet) is definitely in play.


Accumulator: Bears, Steelers -3.5, Washington, Jaguars +5.5

Other Singles:


Washington @ Giants 6 or more turnovers     

Steve Moore


A Welshman exiled in Luton, Steve Moore has been a Buccaneers fan ever since he thought a stadium with a pirate ship was cool (he was only 9 at the time!).

Steve has also hosted podcasts on both the NFL and British Universities football and was the statistician for 2008 College Bowl finalists, Staffordshire Stallions