TNF Preview: Can Either the Packers or Falcons Afford to Lose?

By Simon Carroll

Thursday Night Football heads to Lambeau Field this week, with the Green Bay Packers hosting an Atlanta Falcons team that arrives in Wisconsin at 0-2 and desperately searching for signs of life. Green Bay, meanwhile, sits at 1-1, but their opening fortnight has hardly been convincing.

That makes this a fascinating betting proposition. The Packers are currently around 6.5-point favourites, with the game total sitting at approximately 44.5 points, although those numbers can move before kickoff.

Is this a must-win for the Packers?

Technically, of course it isn’t. We’re only heading into Week 3, and Green Bay would still have an awful lot of football to play if they lost on Thursday night. But there is a difference between ‘must-win’ and a game you really don’t want to lose, and this very much falls into the latter category.

The Packers opened the season by throwing away a 22-0 lead against rivals Minnesota, who had to turn to Carson Wentz at quarterback. Jordan Love threw for 387 yards and two touchdowns in that game, but Green Bay’s defense completely unravelled as the Vikings scored 29 unanswered points.

Then came the trip to New York last Sunday, where Green Bay eventually escaped with a 20-17 overtime victory. A win is a win, but the performance raised plenty of questions. The Packers managed just 199 total yards, went 1-for-9 on third down and were outgained by the Jets, with Love completing just 16 of 29 passes for 145 yards.

So, 1-1 sounds considerably healthier than 0-2, but the Packers haven’t exactly looked like a team ready to steamroll through the NFC. A home defeat to an Atlanta side that has yet to reach the red zone this season would put a very different complexion on their start.

Atlanta's quarterback switch changes everything

There is at least one major reason to believe the Falcons can look considerably different on Thursday night: Michael Penix Jr. is back.

Penix has been named Atlanta’s starter for the game, marking his first NFL start since suffering a season-ending ACL injury last November. He has been practising for several weeks and was a full participant in Monday and Tuesday’s practices.

It is difficult to overstate how badly Atlanta needed something to change. Cooper Rush started the first two games and completed only 56.4% of his passes for 229 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions before being benched during Sunday’s 34-3 demolition by Carolina. Rookie Jack Strand replaced him but threw an interception that was returned for a touchdown.

The Falcons have now gone through two games without a single red-zone appearance, while their only points against Carolina came from a field goal. That is quite the starting point for Penix’s return.

And then there's Tua...

The quarterback situation could become even more interesting because Tua Tagovailoa is also back on the practice field.

Tua was a limited participant in Monday’s estimated report before being listed as a full participant on Tuesday, his first full practice since suffering the oblique injury that ruled him out for the opening two games.

The important thing for Thursday, however, is that Penix has already been named the starter. This isn’t a case of Atlanta deciding between the two immediately. Instead, the question is what happens afterwards. Tua was brought in during the offseason and was originally expected to start before his injury intervened, while Penix was the eighth overall pick in 2024 and is now getting his opportunity to reclaim the job.

Whatever happens with that longer-term decision, Atlanta has gone from having Cooper Rush and an undrafted rookie as its available options to potentially having Penix starting and Tua available behind him. That’s a considerably different quarterback room.

And, without being unnecessarily cruel to Rush, simply replacing the quarterback play we’ve seen through the opening two weeks should give the Falcons reason for optimism.

Green Bay's offense has questions of its own

It would be easy to look at Atlanta’s offensive struggles and immediately assume this is a Packers blowout waiting to happen. The problem is that Green Bay’s offense hasn’t exactly been firing on all cylinders either.

Love has completed only 52.1% of his passes through two games, while the Packers are also dealing with injuries along the offensive line. Wide receiver Jayden Reed remains a significant concern after suffering a neck injury against the Jets and missing Tuesday’s practice.

Reed’s absence would be particularly frustrating for a Packers offense that needs explosive plays. Christian Watson has already shown what he can do, catching six passes for 147 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota before adding another touchdown against the Jets. But taking Reed out of the equation removes another important weapon from Love’s arsenal.

There is also the small matter of Green Bay’s offensive line. This is a short week, and injuries have left Matt LaFleur with some reshuffling to do. That’s not ideal preparation for a Falcons defense that has actually done some impressive work despite the team’s 0-2 record.

Don't expect a points-fest

This is where the betting picture gets particularly interesting.

The market is sitting around 44.5 points, but both teams have reasons to make us question whether they can get there. Atlanta’s offense has managed just 16 points through two games and has not reached the red zone, while Green Bay’s offense produced only 199 yards against the Jets.

Penix should make the Falcons better. That doesn’t necessarily mean he turns them into an offensive juggernaut overnight, particularly given that this will be his first competitive game since his ACL injury and his first NFL start since November 2025. This will be Penix’s third ACL recovery, and while Atlanta has had him practising for several weeks there will still be some nerves and doubt for him to work through when he returns to the gridiron.

The defensive matchup also points towards a potentially ugly evening for the offenses. Green Bay’s defense has already shown it can make life difficult for opposing running games, while Atlanta’s defense has also performed considerably better than its 0-2 record might suggest. Both defenses sit inside the top nine in yards per play allowed through two weeks.

The bet: Falcons +6.5

This isn’t necessarily an argument that Atlanta is going to walk into Lambeau and win the game. It is an argument that six and a half points looks like a lot for a Packers team that hasn’t yet demonstrated that it can consistently put teams away.

Green Bay has already been pushed hard by the Jets, and the Vikings showed what can happen when their defense begins to generate pressure and the Packers’ offense loses rhythm. Meanwhile, Atlanta is getting a significant quarterback upgrade from what we saw during the first two weeks.

Penix doesn’t need to be spectacular for this bet to have a chance. If he can simply avoid the catastrophic mistakes that plagued the Falcons through the opening fortnight and keep Atlanta within striking distance, six and a half points gives them some room to work with.

The alternative: Under 44.5 points

If you’d rather stay away from the spread, the Under 44.5 is another interesting route.

Atlanta’s offense has given us very little reason to expect a shootout, and while Penix should improve the passing game, there is a huge difference between better than Cooper Rush and good enough to turn this into a 30-point offense. Green Bay’s own offensive inconsistency also makes it difficult to envisage the Packers carrying the scoring burden by themselves.

A score somewhere around 24-17 would leave the Under comfortably home, and that feels like the sort of game script where this matchup could end up.

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Mock Draft

SIMON CARROLL

Lead Writer, Head of Content

PREVIOUSLY THE FOUNDER OF NFL DRAFT UK, SIMON HAS BEEN COVERING COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND THE NFL DRAFT SINCE 2009. BASED IN MANCHESTER, SIMON IS ALSO CO-CREATOR & WEEKLY GUEST OF THE COLLAPSING POCKET PODCAST, COVERS THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS FOR SB NATION and is A college football writer for dazn.

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