The NFL Sunday Review: Week 17

Happy New Year! Apologies for the hiatus of the last couple of weeks – Christmas is a chaotic time. But now, we move forward into a New Year, with so many franchises full of hope, and a number of teams full of despair at their season falling apart. It’s strangely ironic that as we celebrate the start of 2023, we also have to acknowledge the end of the NFL Season. Alas, the end is near.

Week 17 is almost complete, and has set us up for a wonderfully intriguing finale of Week 18 next weekend. There’s still a lot up for grabs, and a ton to be decided, as we sadly reach the conclusion of the 2022 regular season. There’s been plenty of chaos, but the most exciting thing for me is there really are multiple teams who could go on to be SuperBowl Champions in February. For now, let’s take a look at where we stand in the race for the playoffs, and what the potential Wildcard Weekend matchups might be.

AFC Playoff Picture

Week 17 in the AFC has done nothing if not set up a deliciously poised Week 18 slate for this half of the NFL. Kansas City held off a surprisingly motivated Broncos team, and kept themselves in the running for the #1 seed, depending on what happens in Cincinnati this evening. The Bengals are still in that picture too, if they can beat the Bills and win against the Ravens in Week 18, but would need the Chiefs to drop their finale against the Raiders.

The Chargers jumped up to the 5 seed having beaten the Rams, and will be hoping to hold onto the slightly better seeing and the supposedly easier matchup against the AFC South champion if the Ravens don’t beat the Bengals. There are actually very realistic situations where we could get the Ravens vs Bengals in Week 18… and again in the Wildcard Round too. 

The biggest losers this week were (painfully) the Miami Dolphins, who suffered yet more tragically bad injury luck and fell to their 5th straight defeat. Teddy Bridgewater was injured in the 3rd quarter on the game-changing Pick 6, which meant that Skylar Thompson had to try and pull off an unlikely comeback, and just fell short. The days of the Dolphins’ 8-3 record and #2 seed in the AFC are long gone, as the Fins playoff hopes are now on life support, and require the Bills to beat the Patriots for their game against the Jets to matter.

Speaking of the Jets, they were officially eliminated from playoff contention with a loss in Seattle. The Mike White roller coaster ran out of steam at an inopportune moment, but Robert Saleh can reflect on having built an impressive young defense and knowing, with Breece Hall back next year, that if they can find a QB they can rely on that they have a chance to compete seriously in the AFC in the near future. And after all the hope and hype of new teams coming along in the AFC East, we enter Week 18 with the New England Patriots (somehow) in control of their own destiny.

I’m baffled by this, because the Patriots offense is AWFUL, but their defense, special teams, and coaching is carrying this squad, as they have done all year. Lord knows Mac Jones isn’t winning them any games on his own. If New England does find a way to beat the Bills in Week 18, they’ll have earned their spot, even if none of us will be able to understand how it happened. It’s also not impossible that we could also get Bills vs Patriots in the Wildcard Round again, just like last year.

We must also touch again on the AFC North where Mike Tomlin continues to show why he will be a first ballot hall of fame coach. At 2-6, the Steelers were dead and buried, and we all said THIS is the year Tomlin finally has a losing record, right? Wrong. After defeating the Ravens last night, the Steelers go into Week 18 still alive, but needing the Patriots and Dolphins to lose, and themselves to beat the Browns to somehow sneak in as the most unlikely of 7 seeds… since the Steelers themselves did it last year! Tomlin and Belichick’s teams both being 8-8 despite having the talent of a 4-12 team should not go unnoticed. Coaching masterpieces from both of them.

Right now, you have to say the Chiefs, Bills & Bengals feel a cut above the rest of the AFC, but trust me, the Chargers, the Dolphins, the Ravens and (whisper it) the Jaguars, are all frisky enough to cause an upset or two. Obviously the Fins need some help from Buffalo to get in, but right now I’m thinking the Bills will be the #1 see, and I’d therefore love to see a Chiefs vs Dolphins, Bengals vs Ravens, & Chargers vs Jaguars Wildcard Lineup…

NFC Playoff Picture

NBC Sports

In the NFC, the Number 1 seed is still in play for four different teams, as the Eagles look to hang on with the Cowboys and 49ers snapping at their heels, and the Vikings somehow still in that conversation too. Gardner Minshew did not have anywhere near as good a performance as he did in Dallas last week, and the Eagles dropped their second in a row. Philly will hope Jalen Hurts can return for Week 18 as they try to seal the 1 seed. Dallas handled Tennessee with ease on Thursday night, but would need a favour from the Giants to jump all the way up to #1 and snag the Bye. The 49ers had a fortunate break – as they seem to every single week – in sneaking past the Raiders in overtime to earn their 12th win of the season.

In other news… The New York Giants secured a playoff berth in Brian Daboll’s debut season in the Meadowlands, with one of Daniel Jones’ most impressive NFL performances to date. Yes, it was against the Jeff Saturday-led Indianapolis Colts, but the Giants have ridden their waves well this season, and despite having a wide receiving room full of guys that seemingly nobody else wanted, they’ve found ways to win games. And… whisper it… but this is a Giants team that could ABSOLUTELY go on the road to Minnesota and cause an upset in the Wildcard Round.

We should also note that the Washington Commanders were officially eliminated from contention thanks to their defeat to the Cleveland Browns. It was not a day to remember for Carson Wentz. 3 INTs and the home fans chanting “Hei-Nic-Ke”… Where did it all go wrong for Wentz? Ron Rivera’s decision to revert to Wentz was somewhat baffling, and I would be furious if I was a Washington fan or player. Also, Thomas Edward Patrick Brady Jr. has found his way back into the Playoffs again. Brady put on a vintage performance to end the Panthers’ extremely strange and faint hopes of winning the NFC South. The Buccaneers are in, and nobody should feel good about having to face them in the postseason. It’s not been a vintage season in Tampa Bay by ANY stretch of the imagination, but once you’re in… who knows?

As far as what’s still to play for, it’s now between the Packers, the Seahawks and the Lions for the 7 seed. Who would have thought the Green Bay Packers would actually find a way to run the table and be relevant going into Week 18? Aaron Rodgers did, but I’m not sure any of us believed it. Things have definitely fallen in the Cheeseheads’ favour, but equally the Pack have significantly improved in recent weeks, as exhibited by their absolutely rollocking win over the Vikings yesterday. The oft-maligned defense and Special Teams have stepped up, with Keisean Nixon becoming one of the most dangerous return men in the league, and Jaire Alexander completely shutting down Justin Jefferson yesterday. For Green Bay, it’s simple: win, and you’re in. The fun part? They’re playing the Lions next week…

Detroit are my favourite story of the entire season, and I just WISH they hadn’t blown the game against the Panthers a couple weeks back, because with a win in that one they would have been in the Driver’s seat in this race. Instead, they must beat the Packers, and hope for a favour from Baker Mayfield and the Rams, who they need to beat the Seahawks. The Seahawks handled the Jets to keep their destiny in their own hands, and all Seattle now need is a Detroit win, and themselves to beat the Rams. I’m hoping the Lions find a way to get in, but right now it feels like it’ll be another shot at a “Last Dance” run for Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay @ San Francisco on Wildcard Weekend? Sign me up for THAT upset.

If I’m completely honest, it feels to me like the “F” in  “NFC” stands for “full of fraudulent & flawed teams.” On the AFC side, you could make a case for at least 6 of the 7 teams who will get in to be talented enough to make a run if the chips fell their way. It doesn’t feel like they have quite as many or as visible a set of achilles’ heels as the NFC teams do. I feel pretty strongly that the NFC will be represented in the SuperBowl by either of the two NFC East teams.

I just can’t trust that Brock Purdy and the Niners are going to hold it together in the biggest moments, and I think – assuming Jalen Hurts comes back healthy – the Eagles are the realest of deals, closely followed by a very talented Cowboys squad, who just need to stay out of their own way – I’m looking at YOU Mike McCarthy – and they should be able to deal with (presumably) the Buccaneers and progress later into the postseason. However, I still feel like the AFC teams are just stronger overall, and we’ll see one of them lifting the Lombardi in February. If I was guessing the Wildcard Lineup, I’d say Eagles have the Bye, and we get 49ers vs Packers, Vikings vs Giants, and Cowboys vs Buccaneers. Intriguing.

Quick Hits

  • I thought it was really nice of Mike Evans to show up for his fantasy owners with 3TDs this week. I’m sure he helped many of them win their 7th place playoff… Evans had 3 scores all season until yesterday. Strange.
  • Russell Wilson showing he does still have some of the intangibles that made him so special in Seattle should not be a surprise, but it is remarkably convenient that it happened IMMEDIATELY after Nathaniel Hackett is gone… 
  • Jarrett Stidham… welcome to the NFL. Obviously, it ended in defeat, but Stidham becoming on the 2nd QB this season to throw 3+ Passing TDs against the 49ers (the other being a Mr. P. Mahomes), is exceptionally impressive. It’s too early to jump to conclusions, but could this be the official end of the Derek Carr era for the Raiders?
  • Jared Goff’s resurgence in Detroit deserves louder coverage than it has received. It would be a wonderful final chapter to this fairytale if Goff could lead the Lions into the playoffs. I’m really hoping Baker Mayfield and the Rams do the Lions a favour and beat the Seahawks next weekend.
  • The Falcons beat the Cardinals in a game that is notable only for being JJ Watt’s penultimate NFL game. I really hope he goes out with a win next week, but that feels very unlikely against the 49ers. Congratulations to Watt on his retirement. Surefire 1st ballot Hall of Famer.
  • I’d also just like to reiterate how unforgivably unlucky the Cardinals have been with injuries this season. Kliff Kingsbury may not survive the offseason, but I firmly expect the Cardinals to bounce back with a healthy Kyler Murray next year. They have too much talent on this roster to not be a perennial playoff contender.
  • Jeff Saturday is apparently still under serious consideration to be the Colts’ next Head Coach, but I’d be stunned if he was actually chosen. Jim Irsay is nothing if not a wildcard of an owner, but I do think the Saturday experiment has run it’s course, and probably isn’t something that Colts fans will want to move forward with. The same could be said for their QB room, with Matt Ryan, Nick Foles, and Sam Ehlinger all not looking like “the Guy.” Derek Carr’s available? Will Indy continue to spin the QB carousel? Feels like it.
  • I’m gonna finish this by just saying how sad I am with how things have gone for Tua Tagovailoa this year. We have no idea if Tua is going to be able to play in Week 18 – and he probably shouldn’t – or if he’s going to play in the NFL again. Concussion is horrible and I just hope he’s able to put his health first and protect himself and his future. Would I love him to return and lead the Dolphins into the Playoffs? Absolutely, but if it’s not safe, PLEASE do not allow him to do so. It’s been a heartbreaking season for Miami in so many ways, but trust in Mike McDaniel… he IS the guy to build this team; Stick with it, even if they finish 8-9.

MNF Prediction: (Season Record: 10-7)

AP Photo/Bryan Woolston

What a way to end Week 17 we have. A truly monumental Monday Night Football game, as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Buffalo Bills in a game that goes A LONG WAY to deciding the #1 seed in the AFC. Buffalo must win to maintain their grasp on the #1 seed they hold so dear. Buffalo’s home-field advantage through the Playoffs would be incredibly impactful. If the Bengals win, Cincinnati would clinch the AFC North division title and move up to the #2 seed themselves. 

The game itself is unbelievably evenly matched on paper. Two high octane offenses, highlighted by two superstar QBs, who look set – along with Mr. Mahomes – to dominate the AFC for years to come. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen have different styles, but are equally beloved and revered by their own fanbases, and around the rest of the league. Whilst Burrow targets Chase, Higgins and Boyd, Allen hits Diggs, Davis, and Knox. Mixon and Singletary are both backfield threats, as are their understudies Perine and Cook. Both defenses are stout and have stifled oppositions in the 2nd half this season. This really does feel like a toss up, but I do have to lean towards the team that I believe is just slightly stronger overall and ready to win right this second.

I think Buffalo find a way to win, giving them a chance to clinch the #1 seed with a win over the Patriots next week (which could also stop New England from getting into the Playoffs), and the Bengals will have to wait until they face the Ravens next week to secure the AFC North crown, and the 3 seed in the Playoffs. Buffalo Bills to win.

Week 18 Preview

USA Today Sports

Next week, it’s all on the line. We don’t yet know the full TV schedule at time of writing, but we do now know that the Chiefs vs Raiders will be the Saturday afternoon game, and the straight up Playoff & AFC South Title shootout between the Titans and the Jaguars will be the standalone Saturday Night Game. It feels like the NFL might be targeting the Packers vs Lions game for Sunday Night Football, but that will be very dependent on what happens in the Seahawks – Rams game earlier on Sunday. If the Seahawks have won, then only the Packers have anything to play for in that slot.

It’s actually quite a tricky schedule for the NFL to build, with the #1 seed in both conferences up for grabs, plus the AFC North title potentially still to be decided, like the aforementioned AFC South. Whatever time the games end up being scheduled, they’ll have to go a long way to match the drama of the “almost a tie” game between the Raiders & Chargers last year, but I’m sure something crazy will happen. It’s just been that kind of a season. As always, thanks for spending part of your week with us. I’m @CallumJDSquires on Twitter and Instagram if you want to say hi, or discuss any of your NFL opinions. Enjoy your week, and see you here for Week 18 next week! Cheers.

Callum Squires

NFL/CFB ANALYST

CALLUM IS FROM LONDON, BUT PLAYED COLLEGE SOCCER AT TRINITY UNIVERSITY IN SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS. CALLUM IS A LONG-SUFFERING DOLPHINS FAN WHO BELIEVES THE TUA HYPE. NOW BACK STATESIDE, HIT HIM UP ON TWITTER @CALLUMJDSQUIRES!

5/5