The NFL Sunday Review: Divisional Round
And then… there were four. We’ve said goodbye to the Jaguars, Giants, Bills and Cowboys, and we now know that this year’s champion will come from either San Francisco, Philadelphia, Kansas City, or Cincinnati. Four teams, all of whom have huge strengths, and some flaws too, makes for an intriguing Championship round, hopefully filled with drama.
I was worried we had used up all the good playoff games on Wildcard Weekend, and there were some rather one-sided games in the Divisional Round, but they’ve still given us an exciting lineup for next weekend. Mahomes vs Burrow & Hurts vs Purdy. One of those you might have expected at the start of the year, one of those you definitely did not. So let’s review the weekend that was, starting with an upset in Buffalo.
Burrow Ruins Bills' Fairytale Dreams
If only Joe Burrow had some confidence...pic.twitter.com/S3KYC0Oc1M
— Simon Carroll (@NFLDraftSi) January 22, 2023
“Better send those refunds.”
– J. Burrow, Jan 22nd, 2023.
What a man Joe Burrow is. What a story Joe Burrow is. And now, after walking into Buffalo and ripping out the heart of BillsMafia… Joe Cool has Cincinnati on the verge of back-to-back SuperBowl appearances, and a chance at righting the wrongs of last year’s final game. Burrow was fantastic throughout; decisive, clinical, and calm (as ever) in the face of pressure, and with a re-shuffled Offensive Line. Hayden Hurst and Ja’Marr Chase both had good games, with a touchdown and 50+ yards each, but Joe Mixon’s 20 carries for 105yds and a TD were a huge element to this Bengals win.
One way to keep Joe Burrow standing? Run the ball efficiently and effectively, and Cincy certainly did that. We should note that, with his performance yesterday, Chase joined Randy Moss as the only players ever with 3000+ rec yds and 25+ rec TDs in their first two seasons. That’s… pretty good company for Ja’Marr right there, and he has one or two more opportunities to further inflate those numbers.
The Bengals Front Office have created a machine for winning games in January, and Head Coach Zac Taylor must also earn a lot of praise here. He was under severe pressure a couple of years ago, and is now on the precipice of two SuperBowl appearances in a row. What a job he’s done. Also, after the game, Taylor said “it is tough, because they have to formulate the plans for coin tosses, they’ve got to formulate the plans for neutral site games, and we just keep screwing it up for everybody. And, I hate that for the people who have to endure those logistical issues, and we just keep screwing it up… I’m sorry.” Zac, I love you. More of this please. Speak your truth.
I am – I will admit – heartbroken and crestfallen for a Buffalo Bills roster that I thought had a really good chance of progressing to the Championship round this year. Back-to-back Divisional Weekend exits is sure to be painful for Sean McDermott and his staff, and the Bills have a number of notable potential free agents that they may have to persuade to remain in Buffalo. Von Miller should be back, but Stefon Diggs was noticeably frustrated during the loss… trouble in paradise with the superstar receiver?! Just 6 catches for 69yds between Diggs and running mate Gabe Davis tells the story of the Bills ineptitude on Sunday.
Nothing went right for Buffalo, as they fell into an early deficit, and never really looked like being able to clamber out of it. The Bengals got pressure on Josh Allen, and limited the Bills to minimal big gains, despite their explosive playmakers. Some will ask if Allen was 100% healthy after his elbow issues earlier this year, but I think this defeat will really hurt in Buffalo for a while. It felt like we were destined for a neutral site rematch of last year’s Chiefs vs Bills epic… and yet the Bengals spoiled the party. They’re developing a habit for doing that, largely because they continue to be disrespected (in their minds) by the league and the media.
Burrow and the Bengals are for real, and that cannot be questioned any more. Can they cap off another January masterclass by winning at Arrowhead again? We shall see.
Dak, Cowboys Falter vs Niners Again
Two years in a row, the Cowboys have just fallen short against the 49ers. Heartbreak for a Dallas team that gave it their all, but ultimately fell foul of Dak Prescott’s two INTs, Trevon Diggs’ dropped INT of Brock Purdy, and a sprinkling of “home-cooking” from the officials. Dalton Schultz’s lazy attempt at completing a catch that might have led to one final Hail Mary attempt meant that the Cowboys season ended in farce once more, with an ill-fated play that started with Ezekiel Elliott snapping the ball at Center.
As good as Dak was on Monday against Tampa Bay, he struggled on Sunday, with only CeeDee Lamb providing a safety blanket for throws. The 49ers picked him off twice, and maybe should have done so another couple of times, as Demeco Ryans’ swarming defense took centre stage, and helped carry a Niners offense that was stifled by Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence for most of the evening. Brock Purdy was his usual steady self, but did show moments of his true Rookie nature, and will face a raucous crowd in the City of Brotherly Love next weekend.
I do think the loss of Tony Pollard, late in the first half, to an ankle injury, was a key turning point, as it took away Dallas’ most explosive playmaker. For Dallas, it’s back to the drawing board. I think Mike McCarthy did well enough with this team to keep his job, but Jerry Jones may wish to move in another direction, as he pursues his SuperBowl obsession. The decision to trade Amari Cooper away has not really panned out, and an offseason of continued discussions around the Zeke & Dak contracts seems somewhat inevitable.
A number of Cowboys are also unrestricted free agents now, including Pollard, Schultz, and Leighton Vander Esch, meaning there might be some re-shuffling of this roster on the whole. Jerry has made it exceedingly clear he wants to win another SuperBowl before he hands the reigns of the Cowboys over to his offspring, but this one will really hurt, as the Niners were nothing special offensively on Sunday, and Dak made the defense’s job easier for them than it needed to be.
I continue to be bemused by much of the Kyle Shanahan love-fest in the mainstream media. Sure, he’s a great play-caller, and obviously is incredible at scheming a run game, but on what basis has he been crowned this ultimate genius and Championship level coach?! Feels to me like when the chips are down, and the lights are the brightest, he shrinks, and fails to perform to the level of his online propaganda machine. This is his 3rd NFC title appearance in 4 years, and we’re still waiting for a SuperBowl championship.
How do I trust the guy that legitimately had Brock Purdy – who has supremely steered this team to the NFC Championship game – was the 3rd best QB on this Niners roster? Okay, we don’t really know what Trey Lance is yet, but Purdy vs Jimmy Garoppolo?! ALL the offensive numbers are up with Purdy under center vs how they were with Mr. G, and yet still Shanahan is flirting with the idea that Garoppolo could play in the SuperBowl?! After Purdy (and the defense) has done all the work to get him there?! This 49ers defense is incredible, and I love the player that George Kittle has become, but there’s no chance I want to see either Purdy or Garoppolo get buzz-sawed by one of the AFC Teams in the SuperBowl. Save us, Philly.
Chiefs Beat Jags... But Is Mahomes Healthy?!
Ouch. Better look at the Mahomes injury pic.twitter.com/zEUp5eJSln
— Aaron Ladd (@aaronladd0) January 21, 2023
“The ankle sprain heard round the world” is probably the biggest headline from this one, but give credit to a valiant Jacksonville Jaguars team for keeping Saturday’s early game in the balance for longer than many would have thought. Patrick Mahomes’ health will dominate the headlines from now until next Sunday’s AFC Title game at Arrowhead, but Kansas City reached their 5th consecutive Championship weekend with a good showing, considering the circumstances.
Chad “Henne-thing is Possible” Henne steadied the ship with a masterful 98yd TD drive whilst the franchise QB was in the locker room getting treatment on his ankle sprain. Andy Reid flexed his exceptional play-calling muscles and masterminded a drive that ultimately steadied the Chiefs when everyone was expecting a potential wobble. The young Jags tried, ultimately in vain, to slow down Andy Reid’s juggernaut, but Kansas City is out for redemption, roaring back into another home AFC Championship game, and looking to avenge not just last season’s defeat to the Bengals, but the last two regular season meetings as well. It has to be said that were Cincy to go 4-0 vs the Chiefs next weekend… that maybe the Bengals would be able to term themselves “The Mahomes-Stopper” franchise.
But for the Jaguars, this was the end of the road. Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence, and the Jags can be proud of their efforts this year, and look to the future with positivity. Jacksonville will add Calvin Ridley once he’s reinstated by the league, giving them a truly elite WR1, to add to Travis Etienne and Evan Engram as their premier options. Christian Kirk & Zay Jones had nice seasons respectively, but are not SuperBowl calibre talents. Ridley could be.
Lawrence wasn’t at his best on Saturday, but the Chiefs deserve credit for being clever with their coverages and stiffening when needed. That said, I’m sure most Jags fans would not have believed that they’d be a playoff team, and division winner, in Pederson’s first season. The Jaguars are flirting with becoming a well-run organisation, and that’s got to be a positive surprise for a franchise that was dealing with Urban Meyer of all people just 14 months ago. However, this game shows that there’s a way to go yet before the Jaguars can be considered serious championship contenders. The Chiefs are the train that never stops moving, with Travis Kelce putting on another exceptional playoff performance.
The loss of Tyreek Hill has obviously been felt, but nothing seems able to really slow down this Chiefs’ offense. Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon have taken over the backfield from Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and the round robin of wide receivers used to fill the Hill void have performed at a consistent enough level to feel just as good as ever about the Chiefs. I know the Mahomes love from some members of the media is starting to rub some the wrong way, but I’m certainly not falling into that group. This team is pure footballing fun, and I can’t wait to see them renew hostilities with Burrow and the Bengals at Arrowhead next Sunday.
Eagles Juggernaut Runs Straight Through Giants
Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles took to the field Saturday night, and promptly gave the most “Allow me to Re-Introduce myself” performance I’ve seen in a long time. The Eagles comfortably handled the New York Giants team that gave the Vikings all they could handle last week. This showing reinforced just why the Eagles were the NFC’s #1 seed, and why all roads to the SuperBowl run through Philly. The return of Lane Johnson helped bolster their run game, which was already almost unstoppable, and contributed to 268 yards on the ground.
At this point, the Eagles are actively trolling the Giants by having Boston Scott score against them every single time he plays them, and not really ever doing so against any other team. I have to respect the pettiness from Nick Sirianni if I’m honest. That said, Kenneth Gainwell and Miles Sanders also ran well, and with Hurts’ ability to scramble and create when a play breaks down – or on a designed QB run – it’s insanely hard to limit this Philly team on the ground. And that’s before I mention that Dallas Goedert is properly ascending into the upper echelons of Tight Ends in this league, and AJ Brown and Devonta Smith is as good a 1-2 punch at WR as almost any in the league, and is definitely the best tandem in the NFC. Howie Roseman deserves so much credit for rebuilding this Eagles team to be contenders. 5 years on from Nick Foles’ magic, are we getting another title for Philly?!
On the other side of the equation, Daniel Jones and Brian Daboll have turned doubters into believers with their performances this season, as the Giants went from an afterthought to a serious playoff contender. Daboll is surely in line to win Coach of the Year, but this showing will haunt him, as an early decision to go for a 4th and 8 didn’t pay off, and a late decision to punt despite being down 21 was a real head-scratcher. Nobody’s perfect, but it wasn’t Daboll’s day, and it felt like the Giants may have put absolutely everything in their tank into beating the Vikings last week, and just had nothing left this time around. It’s hard to blame them, and I think the overall talent deficit really showed in this game, but it does feel like they need a few additional playmakers to revamp this offense next season. OBJ x NYG reunion anyone?!
Looking ahead, the NFC Title game is set to be a barnstormer, with Philly hosting Kyle Shanahan’s Niners. Arguably the two best run games in the league, that game might be the fastest NFC Championship game on record. Jalen Hurts vs Brock Purdy for a spot in the SuperBowl… Imagine if someone had tried to tell you that’s where we were heading before the season? Crazy.
Championship Weekend Preview
So we head to the penultimate weekend of the 22-23 NFL season – and no, the Pro Bowl Games DO NOT count – with just 3 games remaining. Sad, but also excited as the stakes only get higher from here. Sunday’s early game is the aforementioned NFC Title game, as the Philadelphia Eagles host the San Francisco 49ers. That’s followed by a hotly anticipated rematch of last year’s AFC Title game, as the Cincinnati Bengals return to Kansas City, looking to beat the Chiefs for the 4th game in a row. After getting 5 out of 6 predictions right in the Wildcard round, I’ve regressed to the mean and gone 2 out of 4 on Divisional Weekend.
Next Sunday, I’m taking the Eagles to roll their way back to the SuperBowl, where I believe they will face… the Bengals. Mahomes works magic, but January Joe is the real deal, and with questions over the Chiefs’ QB’s health… I’m backing the team that just went into Buffalo and won, and has beaten the Chiefs three times in a row. Eagles vs Bengals would be a brilliant SuperBowl, packed with storylines and superstars. Let’s hope that’s what we get. As always, thanks for spending part of your week with us. I’m @CallumJDSquires on Twitter and Instagram if you want to say hi, or discuss any of your NFL opinions. Enjoy your week, and see you here for Wildcard Recap next week! Cheers.
Callum Squires
NFL/CFB ANALYST
CALLUM IS FROM LONDON, BUT PLAYED COLLEGE SOCCER AT TRINITY UNIVERSITY IN SAN ANTONIO, TEXAS. CALLUM IS A LONG-SUFFERING DOLPHINS FAN WHO BELIEVES THE TUA HYPE. NOW BACK STATESIDE, HIT HIM UP ON TWITTER @CALLUMJDSQUIRES!