The south Fantasy preview
By James Collier
We are one day into the NFL season and it didn’t take long for us to see the first upset of the year. This preview features a few teams that will be hoping to surpass expectations and cause a few upsets themselves this year after disappointing in 2022.
All three 2023 first round rookie quarterbacks are playing in “the South” with one in the NFC and two in the AFC. But can we rely on them and their teammates as fantasy assets?
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback
Desmond Ridder should be an improvement over last year’s Week 1 starter Marcus Mariota which will be a positive for the Falcons’ skill position players. But we won’t want him anywhere near our fantasy lineups outside of two quarterback leagues.
Running Backs
Bijan Robinson is the most talked about rookie running back since Saquon Barkley. He has a legitimate chance of emulating Barkley as a top three fantasy running back as a rookie. Tyler Allgeier will continue to be involved but the Falcons ran the ball almost 33 times per game last year so there are plenty of carries to go around.
Wide Receivers
Drake London had a 29% target share as a rookie but the issue was the quality of the targets. If Ridder is able to put out competent quarterback play he should smash his WR26 ADP.
Tight Ends
It was a similar story with Kyle Pitts who had an elite target share (27.1%) but a miserable catchable target rate of 57%. This is not going to be a high volume passing offense so if Pitts is to bounce back from an underwhelming 2022, he is going to be reliant on Ridder being much more accurate than Mariota.
Carolina Panthers
Will Miles Sanders break into the top-10 fantasy RBs 💥 pic.twitter.com/djs3aIwsqv
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) September 2, 2023
Quarterback
The expectations will be low for number one overall pick Bryce Young in fantasy this year. But he could work his way into streaming contention later in the year.
Running Backs
Miles Sanders was the RB13 last year on the high powered Eagles offense. He’s not going to score as many as 11 touchdowns this year as a Panther but should see more than the 1.6 targets per game he had from Jalen Hurts. Chuba Hubbard had some solid performances towards the end of last year but is just a low level handcuff at this stage.
Wide Receivers
We are going to need a few games to see how this receiver room plays out this year. The Panthers drafted Jonathan Mingo after adding Adam Thielen and DJ Chark in free agency. Terrace Marshall is the only returning player who had over 40 targets last year.
Tight Ends
Hayden Hurst is on his fourth NFL team in five years but could have some involvement if none of the receivers step up. He will be heavily touchdown dependent in fantasy though which is not something we want in a questionable offense quarterbacked by a rookie.
New Orleans Saints
Quarterback
No quarterback had more top 12 fantasy finishes than Derek Carr without breaking the top five at least once last year. Expect more of the same from Carr this year now he’s a Saint, some solid games but nothing more.
Running Backs
With Alvin Kamara suspended for the opening three games of the season and rookie Kendre Miller not fully fit, the door is open for Jamaal Williams. Williams earned his money around the goal line for the Lions last year but wasn’t particularly efficient outside of that. So it remains to be seen if he can carve out a full time role for himself once Kamara is back and Miller is healthy.
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave led all rookie receivers with 70.1 yards per game through the air in 2022. Just a handful of receivers had more air yards per game than his 109.4 and he will be hoping to benefit from more consistent quarterback play with Derek Carr in town. Michael Thomas put up some good numbers in the three games before picking up his customary injury. It’s a big if, but if he can stay healthy this year this could be one of the leagues top duo of receivers.
Tight Ends
Juwan Johnson goes under the radar somewhat but led the Saints in touchdowns last year with seven. Only Travis Kelce and George Kittle had more at the position. Taysom Hill was the TE8 but who knows what his usage will be like this year with Derek Carr around.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Is Mike Evans a value or trap for your fantasy football team? 🧵 pic.twitter.com/ec3GqUuIPH
— Fantasy Footballers (@TheFFBallers) August 3, 2023
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield has the unenviable job of following Tom Brady as Tampa’s starting QB. The hope will be that he is competent enough to keep the Bucs receiving talent relevant for fantasy this year. If not, Kyle Trask may get an opportunity later in the season.
Running Backs
As a rookie Rachaad White was not efficient but had some relevant weeks due to heavy involvement in the passing game. If rookie Sean Tucker does not significantly eat into his work then he could be an RB2 based on volume alone.
Wide Receivers
Both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin averaged over 15 points per game in 2022. While Godwin was consistent with just one game below double figures, Evans scored over 20% of his points in Week 17. Both should be in the WR2/3 range this year with question marks over quarterback play.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton is a sleeper tight end candidate but only had two relevant games in 2022 and he scored a touchdown in both. It’s hard to project this offense scoring all that regularly this year so he might be better off left on waivers for now.
Houston Texans
Quarterback
CJ Stroud is not likely to be a fantasy option for a while but similar to fellow rookie Bryce Young, could creep into the streaming conversation later in the year.
Running Backs
Dameon Pierce was the RB23 in points per game last year but could see increased volume, in particular more receiving work to push him up into that RB1 range. Devin Singletary was added in free agency but should be nothing more than a backup.
Wide Receivers
The Texans don’t have a clear number one receiver but you could make a case for any of four guys: Nico Collins, Tank Dell, John Metchie and Robert Woods. Until we see this offense for a good few weeks we probably aren’t confident playing any of them.
Tight Ends
Or perhaps it is Dalton Schultz that will be the number one target for Stroud? Schultz has been a solid option as a Cowboy but we’ll have to wait and see if that translates to his new team.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have played nine drives with Anthony Richardson at QB this preseason.
— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) August 26, 2023
As expected, Michael Pittman Jr. is the target leader (29%), but only 50% of his targets have been catchable.
Alec Pierce is the deep threat but 25% catchable rate.
Josh Downs needs more routes. pic.twitter.com/tyXxNY730o
Quarterback
Of all of the rookie quarterbacks, Anthony Richardson is definitely the one to own in fantasy. It might feel a bit uneasy starting him Week 1 but fantasy championships are won by targeting upside and Richardson has plenty of that.
Running Backs
With Jonathan Taylor on the PUP until at least week four, it’s next man or next men up at running back. Zack Moss would probably see the majority of the work while Taylor is out but he is recovering from a broken arm. So Deon Jackson looks set to be given the opportunity with rookie Evan Hull mixing in. But in reality it’s a backfield we probably want to avoid until Taylor is back.
Wide Receivers
He didn’t return on his ADP, but Michael Pittman had a solid season with a mixed bag at quarterback last year in Indianapolis. If Richardson is able to sustain a fantasy relevant receiver then it will be Pittman even though there are some that feel Alec Pierce’s skill set fits better with the rookie QB.
Tight Ends
We aren’t getting a fantasy relevant tight end out of the Colts this year, particularly after Jelani Woods was put on IR with a hamstring injury.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback
There is plenty of optimism around Trevor Lawrence in both real life and fantasy this year after he was able to bounce back from a poor rookie season. He was the fantasy QB8 and only the true elite had more top 12 weeks than his 10.
Running Backs
After a dominant run in the middle of the season, Travis Etienne had a difficult end to last year with just one top 12 weekly finish after the Jaguars’ bye week. That combined with the drafting of Tank Bigsby has put some doubt in the minds of fantasy managers entering this year. Etienne will still be a top 12 option but the backfield usage will be something to monitor.
Wide Receivers
Christian Kirk and Zay Jones both surpassed expectations last season with finishes as the WR13 and WR24 respectively. Now Calvin Ridley has been added to the mix. There is no doubt that Ridley’s talent is on another level and he holds the key to the Jaguars offense reaching the next level. The question mark is over whether he’s the same player after not playing a regular season game for almost two years.
Tight Ends
Evan Engram was another surprise package after exploding from Week 13 to 16 and finishing as a top five tight end for the season. He should be a solid option again this year but it’s hard to bank on the same production with the extra option of Ridley added to the mix.
Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry has been a Fantasy KING, but he's getting older & this Titans offensive line looks BAD!@NFL_TStrack & @DynastyIsland give you their thoughts on how to handle Derrick Henry this year all summed up into 4 minutes. Check it out now!https://t.co/QamFqzJCfE pic.twitter.com/zY7xHrRRGD
— The Fantasy Sanctuary (@TheFFSanctuary) August 14, 2023
Quarterback
Ryan Tannehill is still the starter despite the Titans drafting Will Levis early in the second round of the draft. Outside of two QB leagues we’re unlikely to be looking at the Titans starting quarterback for our fantasy teams regardless of who it is.
Running Backs
Age is just a number for Derrick Henry as he bounced back from an injury hit season to finish as the RB4. He will continue to be the focus of the offense and even with offensive line concerns should remain an elite fantasy option based on volume alone. Tyjae Spears is the handcuff to own behind Henry this year.
Wide Receivers
After struggling at times as a rookie, Treylon Burks’ fantasy prospects appeared to be on the up this season. That was until he suffered the double setback of the Titans signing DeAndre Hopkins and injuring his knee in training camp. Hopkins will want to be the focal point of the passing game and there might not be enough volume to sustain both.
Tight Ends
Chigoziem Okonkwo was a popular draft pick early in the season but was also set back by that Hopkins signing. He will be touchdown dependent for fantasy but that’s the case for most tight ends outside of the elite options.
Feature image credit: Rich Von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire
JAMES COLLIER
Lead Fantasy Football Analyst
A Washington fan since the early 2010’s, James had no choice but to turn to fantasy football in search of happiness – and it wasn’t long until it became an obsession. You can follow him on Twitter @jamesc294.