SIMON CARROLL: 1st Round Mock Draft
By Simon Carroll
Mock drafts are silly, fun, informative, and most of all a complete waste of time. And yet what kind of NFL Draft analyst are you if you don’t produce at least one every year?
As is tradition, please enjoy my one and only mock draft of the season. Five trades, five quarterbacks – and if I’m really lucky, five correct picks. Let’s do this!
1. CAROLINA PANTHERS
Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
We come full circle. Bryce Young was the best QB in this draft class when the season ended, and after a few months of smoke from front offices and clickbaiting from media outlets, he’s back to his rightful spot.
There are legitmate size concerns with Young, and any team buying in has to accept the durability concerns that brings with it. But Young is a true difference maker who can make things happen outside of structure – and I can’t think of a better situation for him to go to than working with Frank Reich.
2. HOUSTON TEXANS
Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
The first eyebrow raiser in this draft. Everyone wants to talk themselves out of CJ Stroud, a classic case of the pre-draft process being too long. For the Texans, they floated the notion of not taking a QB at all, but it appears that Nick Caserio may be on the clock in Houston. What better way to buy yourself some time than to draft a QB that, in the eyes of many, is something of a project?
To be clear, I think that notion is oversubscribed. Richardson has the traits to start right away and, in the right system, survive a tough learning curve. If the Texans think differently, then leaning on Davis Mills for a year is hardly the worst outcome if it means you get a Quarterback with unlimited potential.
3. ARIZONA CARDINALS
Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama
Jumping up to #3, when you don’t know which QB’s are going to be available, is too rich for anyone’s blood. The Cardinals outright lied when they said they’ve been fielding half a dozen calls to trade down, in the hope that Indianapolis would take the bait and move up one spot – allowing Arizona to get their guy and a little extra draft capital to boot.
The plan failed, but the pick remains the same. New GM Monti Ossenfort couldn’t have asked for a cleaner prospect than Will Anderson; a high-character, versatile edge rusher who will contribute from day 1. In a year when you’ve just lost JJ Watt and Zach Allen, Anderson is a gift from the football gods.
4. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
The virtue of patience allows Indianapolis to finally get their long-term answer under center. Stroud is a technician in the pocket, a quick processor with a big arm who can make all the throws. Any concerns about his athleticism were put to bed with his performance against Georgia in the playoffs. Shane Steichen will be delighted to be paired with a QB that, just three weeks ago, was considered to be going first overall.
5. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
The Seahawks, as an organisation, think a little different than the status quo when it comes to drafting. They put less of an emphasis on production and polish, and more on measurables and traits. Upside is the name of the game, and in Tyree Wilson they might have hit the jackpot…
Wilson is a creator of chaos. With a rocked up frame holding ridiculous power, he can destroy an offensive line with little nuance. As a day one starter he can be that human wrecking ball with the ability to move inside and offer interior pass rush. And as he develops more rush moves to beat blockers with speed as well as strength, he should become one of the best in the league at his position.
6. DETROIT LIONS
Jalen Carter, IDL, Georgia
The Lions might need a cornerback, but how could they possibly pass on a talent like Jalen Carter?
Carter, at his best, is the epitome of Dan Campbell football. Hustle, motor, speed and strength; on his day he’s simply unstoppable. The character concerns are, well, concerning to say the least. And his performance at his pro day after all the drama at the combine will have had some GM’s running for the hills. But it’s hard not to think that the blue-collar culture in Detroit is the perfect home for him.. Carter AND Hutchinson on that D-Line? Oof…
7. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
The Raiders need a lot of things. Maybe a new head coach, front office and owner if we’re being honest. But on the field, it’s hard to think of a franchise that regressed as much as this team did last year. With the answer at quarterback apparently Jimmy G, it allows Dave Ziegler to focus his first round attention elsewhere…
Christian Gonzalez is a unicorn defensive back. There’s very little from a measurables, athleticism and traits perspective that he lacks. Then throw on the tape and see how much he developed in his one year at Oregon, and it’s hard not to get excited at his potential in the NFL. When you’re competing against Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and, er, Russell Wilson, having a shutdown corner is almost a necessity.
8. TENNESSEE TITANS
Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
TRADE! The Titans send #11 and #72 to The Falcons for #8
Our first trade! Looking over their shoulders at the possibility of a team like the Vikings making a move up for the final(?) blue-chip quarterback, The Titans decide to take the matter into their own hands, sending the Falcons a cheeky 3rd rounder to move up three spots.
With Ryan Tannehill likely in his final year, and Malik Willis failing to impress as a rookie, the hunt for the next QB is on. Sure, the Titans’ roster has plenty of other holes to fill, but being in a position for a quarterback doesn’t come around too often. Levis has come under scrutiny but it’s hard to argue with the arm strength and the intangibles. He’s a guy that will fit into Mike Vrabel’s culture, and thrives in the kind of play-action offense that was built for Tannehill in Tennessee.
9. CHICAGO BEARS
Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern
Ryan Poles opened up the chequebook this offseason, adding some much-needed pieces to a bare Bears roster. The one position he didn’t really address, was Justin Fields’ protection – and if he wants to keep his job for much longer he better target it in the draft.
Plying his trade just up the road at Northwestern, Peter Skoronski is an ideal selection at this spot. He’s a polished pass protector who has the air of a veteran and brings real leadership to a locker room. Are his arms too small? Possibly. But wherever you play him he will be an elite asset on this offense. Blind side protector or interior mauler – Skoronski is a decade-long starter in this league.
10. DETROIT LIONS
Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
TRADE! The Lions send #18 and #48 to The Eagles for #10
Much like last year when they had extra draft capital and saw talent available, The Lions make a move to go get their man. After trading Jeff Okudah to the Falcons this offseason, corner is definitely a priority in this draft, despite the additions of Cam Sutton and Emmanuel Moseley. And boy have they got themselves a guy here.
Watching the tape, I immediately fell in love with Deonte Banks. Size, physicality, athleticism and length; everything you want in an outside corner. He’s as competitive as they come and is another Dan Campbell dude. Banks’ stock has been rising steadily in this draft process, and I honestly think he’ll be the second corner off the board.
11. ATLANTA FALCONS
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
*Received from The Titans as part of the trade for #8 (Will Levis)
Let’s see how this pick goes down in Falcons land. Watching the Lions jump them the pick before, I’m sure GM Terry Fontenot thought he had been gazumped for a second. But Bijan falls to Atlanta, and this front office continues it’s quest to build a replica offense of the one Arthur Smith had in Tennessee.
There’s not much left to say about how good Robinson is as a prospect. He’s the equivalent of Saquon when he came out, but angrier. With the investment in the o-line, big bodied pass catchers at receiver and tight end, and now a formidable running game, they are now officially the Tians 2.0. And considering the big money moves on defense too, is this team ready for a tilt at the NFC South?
12. HOUSTON TEXANS
Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
Nick Caserio has identified this draft as the one where he finds cornerstone pieces to build a team around. Don’t ask him what he’s been doing the previous two years, just buy in…
Lukas Van Ness looks like he’s been chiselled out of granite. He’s never started a game at Iowa but that’s not quite the damning indictment it sounds like – the Hawkeyes are loyal to seniors, and Van Ness played a tonne throughout games. There’s still some rawness, but his measurables and athleticism paint a scary picture of what he can be with further devleopment.
13. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
TRADE! The Seahawks send #20 and #52 to The Packers for #13 and #116
Did the Aaron Rodgers trade just 12 hours before my mock draft was due to drop give me a headache? Sure. But don’t panic – I’ve got more versatility and flexibility than some edge rushers in this draft class. And, as it turns out, the Packers decide they have much better use for this pick anyway…
With a boat load of draft capital, the Seahawks zero in on the best wide receiver in this class. JSN is the latest weapon to roll off the Ohio State WR production line. A smooth precise route runner with hands that catch everything, he is uncoverable as a slot receiver.
John Schneider will have to balance the 2021 tape with last year’s meagre offering, a season beset by injury. But lining up Smith-Njigba at the Y, with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the outside, gives Geno Smith an elite trio of pass catchers to work with.
14. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
Brian Branch, S, Alabama
Brian Branch is ludicrously good. So good, he’s single-handedly made the rest of this safety class look bang average. A phenomenal tackler with great instincts and technique, he also has the range and movement to pay multiple positions in the secondary.
Bill Belichick, his son Steve and the son he really wanted Jerod Mayo have presided over one of the most fluid, interchangeable defenses of the last decade. They will value the versatility a guy like Branch brings. Add in the fact that Belichick worships Nick Saban, and Devin McCourty retired this offseason, and this selection makes too much sense.Â
15. NEW YORK JETS
Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Jets don’t mess about when it comes to offensive linemen. They like them big, and they like them quick – and they bank on their coaching staff to add the bells and whistles in terms of technique once they have them in the building.Â
Broderick Jones is a giant – but I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a smooth mover as him for his size. Aaron Rodger’s late evening trade didn’t really make much of a difference in terms of the Jets’ selection – they were likely looking to target offensive line help anyway. I’m sure the 39 year old QB will appreciate the improved protection Jones offers in his debut season in the Big Apple.
16. WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Washington’s decision to roll into 2023 with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett fighting it out to be QB1 may be seem dubious to most, but we’re here now, and it is what it is. If the new ownership had come in prior to the draft things may have been different, but alas. Regardless, many a Commander fan will tell you that it can’t be much worse than the Carson Wentz debacle of last year…
Despite adding Cam Dantzler to a CB room that also has Kendall Fuller and Benjamin St-Juste, it’s hard for me to see Washington passing on a talent like Devon Witherspoon at this juncture. When Thursday rolls round he could very well be a top ten pick, so getting him at 16 would be excellent value. A true playmaker who hasn’t played the position that long, Witherspoon looks to have a high ceiling.
17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Joey Porter, CB, Penn State
Sorry, I couldn’t resist. Joey Porter being drafted by the same franchise that picked his five-time All-Pro father 24 years ago was a narrative too good to pass up. Luckily for the Steelers who lost Cam Sutton from an already bare secondary, it undoubtedly fills a position of need too.
People love to talk about bloodlines. Let’s talk about the film – Porter is an aggressive shutdown corner with length, burst and physicality. He feels like a Steeler when you watch him play. Sure, you’d hope he had a little less stiffness in his hips, but let him press at the LOS and delay big receivers’ entry into their routes and you’ll have yourself a long-term starter on the outside.
18. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
*Received from The Lions as part of the trade for #10 (Deonte Banks)
Nolan Smith is one of the most electric edge rushers in this draft class, and is mighty fun to watch on tape. That being said, The Eagles were confident they could move down eight spots and still get their man. Undersized but extremely quick, you’d think that Smith is your classic designated pass rusher, who could come in as a rookie on third downs from a wide alignment and be let off the leash. But watch the tape and he’s actually a better run defender than QB killer, contradicting the measurements.
Philly love to draft in the trenches and stockpile talent, and Smith will have the luxury of time to add more mass and develop a more balanced game. And in five years time when rookie contracts are being re-negotiated, we might consider this an absolute steal.
19. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State
Depending on how teams have their OT boards stacked, this could be an absolute pipe dream for Tampa. But having Paris Johnson on the board at 19, this was a no-brainer…
The Bucs’ o-line has been decimated by injury, retirement and departures the last two offseasons. One piece that remains is Tristan Wirfs, and whilst he could potentially kick over to the left, selecting Paris Johnson means that won’t be necessary. The behemoth tackle played the blind side at Ohio State and played it well – a wingspan you rarely see even at his position. Whichever underwhelming QB suits up on Sundays, he should have elite bookends on his offensive line.Â
20. GREEN BAY PACKERS
Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
*Received from The Seahawks as part of the trade for #13 (Jaxon Smith-Njigba)
Making the Jets switch picks as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade, only to trade down anyway, is peak shithousery. But considering the amount of needs this team has, getting as many second rounders seems more than prudent…
I couldn’t help but keep the tradition alive. The Packers, reputedly, have not selected a receiver since the days of black and white television. And who am I to buck that trend, particularly when it annoys their fans so much?
This pick, however, is steeped in logic. With Jordan Love finally ready to take the reins of this offense, it behoves Brian Gutekunst to give him every chance to succeed. Sure, that means more weapons, but how about some more protection too? Michael Mayer is the most polished, all-round tight end in this class, and the perfect security blanket for an unproven quarterback. Aaron who?
21. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
Watch the tape of Dalton Kincaid, and some of the catches he makes are ridiculous. By far and away the most fun tight end in this draft class, he will provide very little in the way of pass protection or run blocking – but everything you could dream of as a receiver.
The Chargers need to give Justin Herbert more weapons, particularly as Keenan Allen nears the end of his time in LA. Since Brandon Staley arrived they’ve had a penchant for more pass-focused TE’s, and Kincaid fits that description. The only thing I don’t like about this pick is the injury history, and how that probably stymies his rookie season in a year when this coaching staff – and maybe the front office too – need to see significant improvement.
22. BALTIMORE RAVENS
O'Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida
I know the popular thought process here is the Ravens continuing to add talent to tempt Lamar back to Baltimore. Trust me – they could have signed three OBJ’s; there’s only one thing that Lamar wants, and he needs two hundred million of them, fully guaranteed…
Once the Ravens have figured out they need to pay up, it would probably be in their interests to give their expensive QB some improved protection. An interior lineman isn’t a sexy pick, but Torrence is an immovable object that pretty much fills the phone booth he operates in. He has an AFC North mentality, and immediately makes this offense better.
23. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
TRADE! The Chiefs send #31, #95 and #122 to The Vikings for #23
Brett Veach is getting antsy. Seeing Baltimore pass on a receiver, he decides he’s waited long enough – and uses some of that extra draft capital to move up a hefty eight spots and take the receiver they covet.
The Chiefs have lost some receiver talent, from Tyreek last summer, to JuJu this year. Adding someone as dynamic and dangerous as Zay Flowers is just downright unfair to the rest of the AFC. With Kadarius Toney potentially transitioning to an outside role, Flowers could begin life in the slot, with some gadget plays added to his remit too – a big play waiting to happen, Andy Reid will find ways to get this kid the football.
24. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Jawaan Taylor got THE BAG from Kansas City in free agency, and nobody seems to know why. Whilst he wasn’t a liability in Duval County, he certainly wasn’t worth keeping around, even at half the price. And considering the talent that Trent Baalke has surrounded QB Trevor Lawrence with, it’s now time to up the protection…
Darnell Wright’s draft stock has suffered with the perception he’s a RT-only prospect. And he knows it, going after one unlucky Bengals fan/writer who dared to say as much on Twitter. Not that the Jags will care – he dominated the best edge rushers he came up against at that spot, and that’s exactly where they’ll play him on Sundays. This is the perfect fit.
25. NEW YORK GIANTS
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
You’ve paid Daniel Jones a lot of money. You’ve given him a new tight end to throw to. But the receiving corps is a collection of smaller pass catchers – and you wouldn’t consider Sterling Shepard, Parris Campbell or Wan’dale Robinson as WR1’s. Why not go out and get Danny Dimes a big outside target to throw to?
Great news – there’s one available. Quentin Johnston’s tape isn’t always consistent, but he is a physical perimeter receiver who thrives outside the numbers. He’s strong to hold the redline, dominates at the catch point, and is all kinds of nasty with the ball in his hands. I’d like him to be a bit more of a redzone threat considering the measurables, but that can come. Johsnton can be everything Kenny Golladay wasn’t. This offense is ready to take off.
26. HOUSTON TEXANS
Jordan Addison, WR, USC
TRADE! The Texans send #33 and #73 to The Cowboys for #26
After two years of laying dormant, the Nick Caserio era has erupted! From getting his QB of the future, then adding a blue-chip edge rusher to DeMeco Ryan’s defense, the Texans GM goes all in, trading up with neighbours Dallas to snag the last remaining first round receiver.
Jordan Addison seems to be a polarising prospect. The naysayers point to a regression after his move to USC in 2022, but the explosion and athleticism was still there on tape. He’s a natural separator, makes playing the position look easy, and will be a reliable target for Anthony Richardson on the outside. He reminds me a lot of Devonta Smith, and I’m sure the Texans would take that without too much thought.
27. BUFFALO BILLS
Calijah Kancey, IDL, Pitt
Would the Bills have been interested in Addison had the Texans not just jumped them? Perhaps. The price of being perennial Super Bowl contenders is that the draft board rarely falls how you’d like it, but Brandon Beane has plenty of options to roll with the punches at this juncture.
Word on the street is that Ed Oliver is not beloved within the organisation. Entering the final year of his rookie deal, the jury is still out as to whether he’ll be offered a new deal. What better way to get leverage or a succession plan than by drafting someone at his position? I’m not totally sold on Kancey as a prospect – his incredibly short arms means he’d be a total outlier at the position if he was to be a success. But lining him up next to the man mountain that is Daquan Jones would allow him to do what he does best – pin his ears back and rush the passer from the interior.
28. CINCINNATI BENGALS
Adetomiwa Adebawore, IDL, Northwestern
Another team looking for improved pocket penetration from the interior, the Bengals may have had one eye on Calijah Kancey, who went the pick before. Pivoting to Adetomiwa Adebawore may seem like a reach – I’m here to tell you otherwise.
Adebawore is a versatile game changer. He can attack the quarterback from the outside or the interior, and even has the strength and enough length to set the edge as a five tech in a three man front. That makes him uniquely valuable to Lou Anarumo, who can play him all over the line in their base 4-3, but still have him on the field in their subpackage. A late riser in this draft class, ‘AA’ will be a fan favourite in The Queen City.
29. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
The Saints sit patiently, and perhaps get one of the steals of the draft. With Marcus Davenport departing in free agency, this team needs some pass rush help. Three months ago, if I would have told you that Myles Murphy was still available this late on day one, you would have laughed at me. But the pre-draft process is a fickle thing, and NOLA benefits from uneducated groupthink.
Murphy is a polished edge rusher who has very few holes to his game. He’s absolutely RIPPED, plays with scary power, and fires off the snap like his hair is on fire. He might not quite have the upside of a Tyree Wilson, Lukas Van Ness or Nolan Smith, but I’d argue he’s a much safer pick and is an NFL starter. That’s good enough for Dennis Allen.
30. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Considering just how badly the Eagles’ defense was decimated in free agency, the board has fallen fairly kind to them. After addressing the line with their first selection, they return to shore up the secondary with pick number two.
Cam Smith is an underrated cornerback who is a livewire on the football field. What he lacks in instincts he makes up for in speed and burst to the football – and has the length required to disturb the catch point. He was such an effective pass defender teams stopped throwing at him in 2022 – SEC offenses didn’t want to know. For the Eagles, who somehow kept both Darius Slay and James Bradberry for another year, Smith offers an ideal succession plan, and can possibly cut his teeth with slot or nickel duties.
31. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
*Received from The Chiefs as part of the trade for #23 (Zay Flowers)
Hehe. Thought the drama was over? Think again. In a move that is bound to aggravate Vikings fans who have a laundry list of needs for this roster, the front office focus on the future at quarterback.
GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah hasn’t hidden the fact he’s exploring possible ways to trade up for the heir apparent to Kirk Cousins. In this scenario it was a move that never transpired. Plan B? Trade down, acquire more draft picks, and zero in on Hendon Hooker at the bottom of the first round.
For Hooker, this is an ideal landing spot. Cousins is the starter for another twelve months, allowing the rookie to recover from the torn ACL and feel his way into an NFL playbook. Whether he’s an upgrade on Captain Kirk remains to be seen, but he’ll certainly be cheaper. The Vikings will look to add further roster pieces on day two as they try to repeat as NFC North Champions.
FIRST PICKS FOR TEAMS WITHOUT A DAY 1 SELECTION:
33. DALLAS COWBOYS
Steve Avila, IOL, TCU
*Received from The Texans as part of the trade for #26 (Jordan Addison)
36. LOS ANGELES RAMS
Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
51. MIAMI DOLPHINS
Bryan Bresee, IDL, Clemson
67. DENVER BRONCOS
Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State
74. CLEVELAND BROWNS
Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State
