offseason dynasty sells
One of the fundamentals of being successful in dynasty leagues is to recognise when to buy low and sell high on players. Much like the wave of recent cryptocurrencies hitting the market you want to buy into the currency when it’s low and then try to sell at its absolute peak. Below I list some of my favourite sell high candidates this offseason that I think have peaked in value:
Alvin Kamara
I love Alvin Kamara, he’s a fantasy monster at the running back position. He’s helped me win numerous fantasy championships and I have plenty of Kamara shares throughout my dynasty teams. So why be so keen to sell him this offseason? Well dynasty leagues are about always trying to get the most value and I really believe that Kamara is at his peak value right now.
The New Orleans Saints are cash strapped to say the least being the team most over the projected NFL cap, so casualties are a certainty. Kamara isn’t going to be one of them but the team as a whole is expected to be weaker – especially at the quarterback position with the impending Drew Brees retirement. Kamara with Brees at quarterback is a PPR machine with 81 receptions in each of his first three seasons. That pace significantly slowed up when Brees went down injured and now with Brees retiring the ceiling for receptions is lowered.
Kamara will be 26 years old by the time the 2021 season reaches us and that is a key number where history tells us that it is unlikely for running backs to continually produce elite numbers. I don’t suddenly expect Kamara to fall off a cliff, far from it. Kamara will be a top 6 running back in 2021 I have no doubt. I’m just getting out now and I’d rather do it a year early than leave it and face his value being half of what it is this offseason.
I would be looking for two early–mid first round picks plus for Kamara or a 2020 rookie running back such as D’Andre Swift/Cam Akers plus a first.
David Montgomery
A player that was producing Kamara-like numbers towards the end of the 2020 regular season was David Montgomery. Through weeks 12-17 Montgomery produced the most PPR fantasy points of all running backs, averaging an impressive 25.7 points per game. This poses another ‘why would you want to trade that production away?’ question. Well, diving into the data it shows that it was slightly a mirage.
Montgomery had a very slow start to the season, the RB21 through the first 11 weeks had a lot of people calling him a bust and giving up on him. Those that persevered were paid off in a big way but looking at the schedule of those teams faced down the stretch it shows the Bears facing the very worst running defenses in the NFL.
Remind the guys in your league just how good Montgomery was down the stretch, they may buy in that it could continue. I’m predicting it won’t and I’m cashing in on that recent success. I’ll be asking for a early-mid first round pick or I’ll be happy to package a mid-late first with Montgomery for a stud such as D’Andre Swift.
DJ Chark
I was actually in on Chark in quite a big way last season but he mightily disappointed. Finishing as the WR49 playing just 13 games the whole situation was a mess in Jacksonville (with the exception of running back James Robinson of course).
He surely has to bounce back and put up better numbers once again? He’s getting generational rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence – are you not excited? Yes I am to some extent but it could very well be short-lived. DJ Chark is entering his final year under contract with the Jaguars and could very well be hitting free agency in 2022. This means you may only get one year with Lawrence throwing to Chark and that will be his rookie year!
You also have the free agency factor this offseason, with the Jags having the most cap space available by far. Will they look to bring in an extra weapon for their shiny new quarterback? It could very well happen and this will undoubtedly affect Chark’s ceiling and lower his value further.
The fantasy community are excited about DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault with Lawrence arriving, so take advantage and get what you can for Chark now. I’d be happy taking a mid-late 1st for Chark.
Robert Tonyan
It was a stellar season for breakout tight end Robert Tonyan who caught an incredible 12 touchdowns during the season that lead to the NFC Championship game. Good enough for a finish as TE4, it literally came from nowhere as 3rd year Tonyan had previously posted finishes of TE79 and TE64.
Fresh in the memory of his brilliant 2020 season I am actively looking to trade him if I own him. He enters the offseason as a restricted free agent although it’s extremely likely the Packers bring him back as one of Rodgers’ trusted receivers. What I’m not so sure about though is the future for Tonyan and the Packers as a whole.
Rodgers isn’t going to be around for many more years and has threatened to go elsewhere – although seemingly unlikely right now. I also do not expect the touchdown rate to continue; regression is a horrible word but it seems likely in this scenario. Tonyan’s fantasy points came when he scored touchdowns, when he didn’t he didn’t produce. There’s no athletic freakishness about him that I love to look for in the position, he’s just a big red zone target.
I’m looking to cash in now while his value is high and I’m looking to package him with a pick for someone like TJ Hockenson who I see so much upside with.
