CFB: Notre Dame Fighting Irish Week 3 Preview
By Stiofán Mac Fhilib
After taking care of business against Navy, there need be no more worries over Notre Dame ‘looking ahead’; THE game with Miami is now upon us. The initial Playoff Committee rankings may have raised eyebrows, but if nothing else, the Irish know exactly where they stand. Beat the Hurricanes. Or else.
Looking Back at Last Week
Scoring the final 28 points of any game usually makes the scoreline appear suitably comfortable. However, when Navy ran the ball in from two yards out just eight seconds after the two-minute timeout in the first half, the Midshipmen’s 13-7 lead, and 22:51 to 6:14 time of possession advantage, were more than a little concerning for Irish fans.
The only small crumb of comfort for the ND defense was their ability to hold Navy to a pair of FGs inside the red zone. The 184 yards given up, however, were much less impressive, and even more concerning were the significant injuries the Irish picked up over the course of the afternoon. LB Drayk Bowen and DTs Francis Brewu and Jason Onye all went down, and Bowen at least seems out for the season.
DC Chris Ash made some necessary adjustments during the half-time interval, his ears perhaps still ringing from Head Coach Marcus Freeman’s comments as he left the field, that “We can’t panic. You can’t start calling things that your guys don’t know how to execute”.
In fairness to Ash, they paid dividends as the Middies managed just 61 second-half yards on three punts and a turnover on downs. The Notre Dame offense by contrast, was a model of efficiency, scoring TDs on five of its first six possessions.
A nicely balanced afternoon saw CJ Carr get his 200 yards with a pair of TDs and no INTs as usual, while the running game also hit the 200-yard mark with Nolan James Jr. capping his second 100-yard game with a 52-yard TD at the end of the first half to restore the Irish lead.
After all the discourse around the WR rotation, an injury to Micah Gilbert gave Jerome Bettis Jr. his opportunity to stake a claim for greatly increased snaps, and he took full advantage, catching six passes for 78 yards and a TD.
His father will be in South Bend this weekend as part of the commemorations to celebrate the late Lou Holtz, whose most memorable win came in South Bend over Miami. It might be curiously fitting then if the son is able to play a key role in another massive Irish victory over the Hurricanes.
The Week Ahead
MIAMI HURRICANES (NOTRE DAME STADIUM); 7.30PM EST; 12.30AM GMT
There may not be a rivalry trophy at stake on Saturday evening, but aside from Michigan, there may not be another rival that Notre Dame fans traditionally loathe more than the Hurricanes from Coral Gables. The Irish lead 18-9-1 in a series that was played every year but one between 1971 and 1990. This week, however, will be just the second time the Canes have travelled to South Bend since then.
The omens, like the Vegas line, may not favour them, though they can take some solace from the fact that football games aren’t played in casinos. Miami have not won at Notre Dame since 1984 (seven years after the last Irish victory in the Orange Bowl). And since the legendary Catholics v Convicts game between the two schools in 1988, Notre Dame are 3-0 at home against #1 teams in the AP Poll when the Irish are ranked in the top five in that poll. ND are 11th in the playoff committee’s first rankings, but still #4 in the AP Poll (just as in 1988).
The main talking point heading into the game is the ankle injury sustained by Miami’s best player, WR Malachi Toney, which will likely see him miss the game. To lose a top Heisman Trophy contender is a big blow, surely, but Notre Dame can absolutely not underestimate the rest of the #1 Hurricanes team, especially on offense.
QB Darian Mensah, who led Duke to the ACC title last season, is a legitimate Heisman candidate in his own right and has had a remarkable season for Mario Cristobal’s team. He rarely puts the ball in danger and has an array of skill position players to feed the ball to. Cooper Barkate is reliable and caught passes from Mensah in 2025 at Duke. RB Mark Fletcher Jr. has the most carries so far and is hard to bring down after first contact.
Freshman Javian Mallory leads the team in rushing and has an impressive 7.0 ypc.
With Notre Dame DTs Francis Brewu and Jason Onye questionable and MLB, Drayk Bowen, out indefinitely, Miami will likely focus their run game between the tackles to begin with, until and unless the Irish can stop them. And while the ND defense will obviously try to learn from the Miami-North Carolina game about how to attack the Miami defense, the Hurricanes themselves can certainly watch film from ND’s game with the same team and see how the Tar Heels used a big TE to wreak havoc on the Irish pass defense. TE Elija Lofton could be a busy man on Saturday.
Mensah has struggled most when blitzed frequently. DC Chris Ash has dipped into his toolbox relatively rarely to use this so far this season. That had better change on Saturday, or his 80% completion rate will only increase, along with Notre Dame’s chances of missing the playoffs.
The Miami defense is a different beast in 2026 without the talents of the DEs, Bain and Mesidor, and the pass rush they provided. They are strong at DT, though, and miserly against the run. ND might enjoy more success on the ground running off tackle.
Their pass defense, however, is a relative weakness. They generate few interceptions and are poor on third down. They have allowed almost 300 yards through the air in their last five P4 outings, and 10 passing TDs in the last three games. This very much ought to be a ‘pass to set up the run’ evening for the Irish, though the result may ultimately hinge upon Notre Dame’s ability to run the ball effectively in the final third of the contest. Their OL play in recent weeks suggests that is eminently possible.
In a game like this between two such relatively evenly matched teams, it will likely come down to whose best players play their best, who wins the turnover battle, and key special teams plays, either positive or avoiding big negatives. Both sides have above-average kicking operations, though the loss of Toney will hinder Miami’s punt return game.
The weather conditions will be dry with temperatures around 6C/40F at kickoff. Colder than the Miami players are generally used to, but far from freezing. Perhaps the biggest intangible plus for the Irish is simply home field advantage itself. Marcus Freeman has already set out his expectations for the home crowd, and they will need no encouragement to make their feelings towards ‘the convicts’ known. Notre Dame experienced the opposite at BYU. Saturday night is the time to even the score.
Game Prediction
NOTRE DAME 34-27 MIAMI
On a cool northern Indiana night, the Irish will lean on CJ Carr’s arm to gain a narrow edge heading into the fourth quarter. Then the ND OL and RBs will grind down the Hurricanes’ defence to ensure Irish playoff hopes remain alive and well for another week.
Where to Watch
Sky Sports NFL (Channel 412); coverage starts at 12.30am GMT
NBC (in the USA)
Playoff Picture
Last week saw Indiana survive a second overtime battle, this time with Minnesota, thanks to a 60-yard FG from Irish kicker Paddy McAteer. Ohio State, however, were unable to avoid their second defeat, as USC took advantage of Julian Sayin’s absence to down the Buckeyes in the Coliseum. Further down the rankings, both SMU and Wisconsin lost, dealing a blow to Notre Dame’s strength of schedule.
This week sees the biggest collection of Top 25 matchups of the season to date and some big names needing a victory to ensure they don’t effectively drop out of the playoff race, while others would prefer not to be in the playoff committee’s three-loss beauty contest come early December.
The Holy War in Utah will kick the day off at 10am local time, which doesn’t leave much time for the fans of the #3 Utes and #9 Cougars to get sober. Then in the SEC #7 Texas travel to #18 Missouri, #5 Alabama go to #14 LSU and #2 Georgia head to the Grove and #10 Ole Miss. And in the battle of the Big Ten backup QBs, #23 Oregon arrive in Columbus to take on #12 Ohio State.
Irish fans will be hoping for Utah and Oregon victories, and for as many SEC teams as possible to get at least three losses. Though for the week that’s in it, a Notre Dame victory would trump any other result anywhere.
STIOFÁN MAC FHILIB
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYST
A VERY LONG-DISTANCE SUBWAY ALUMNUS OF NOTRE DAME, COUNTY ANTRIM-BASED STIOFÁN HAS BEEN A FAN OF THE FIGHTING IRISH SINCE 2000. FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @SMACFHILIB.
