nfl week 1: four things to keep an eye on

By Tayyib Abu

The 7th week of the NFL season is here, and like all weeks, there are big stories and topics to follow. After a typically unpredictable start, the season is beginning to settle down. Patterns are emerging, and the picture is a little clearer. Here are four things to watch this weekend.

Can Someone In The AFC North Please Stand Up?

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Billed as one of the must-see divisions in the pre-season, the AFC North is currently a tangle of strange football teams. The 3-3 Baltimore Ravens lead the division, with the Cleveland Browns a game back at 2-4. Both sides dismally lost in Week 6 and will desperately want to steady the ship. Add that to the usual animosity and dislike between both clubs, and this fixture is a must-watch. 

The Ravens conspired to lose to the New York Giants last Sunday, despite leading for much of the game. It was another late-game collapse for Baltimore, with concerns on both sides of the ball. Offensively, Lamar Jackson has cooled off after a red-hot start. In the last three weeks, Jackson’s ability to beat blitzes has disappeared. In the opening three games, Jackson threw six touchdowns and no interceptions against blitzing defenses. In the last three weeks, that ratio has changed to two touchdowns and three interceptions.

Through six weeks, Jackson is getting blitzed on dropbacks 39.4% of the time. It is something teams will continue to do, and the Browns have the athletes on defense to get home with extra rushers. Cleveland is 14th in pass-rush win rate, and pressure up front is vital to their success. The Browns are 31st in defensive DVOA. Against the New England Patriots, Cleveland was atrocious on defense. Bailey Zappe had the 2nd-highest Next Gen Passer score of the week; that is how bad the Browns were. However, the Ravens are not the Ravens of old….

Baltimore is 24th in run-defense DVOA, and the Browns’ rushing attack is formidable. Nick Chubb is the current rushing leader, despite seeing eight-man tackle boxes nearly 30% of the time. Chubb leads the league in RYOE and FMTOE. He is an outstanding runner. As for Baltimore’s running offense, they are 2nd in explosive running plays, and teams have gashed Cleveland on explosive running plays. The Browns have allowed 435 yards on explosive run plays. 

Both teams sport flaws, and both need a win. Divisional games are often tough to call. Nonetheless, they are always thrilling. This game will be physical, brutal, and aggressive. By the end, only one team will feel happy to walk away with the battle scars.

Titans Primed To Take The South?

The AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans welcome the 3-2-1 Indianapolis Colts to Nissan Stadium on Sunday. Tennessee is back from the bye week, while the Colts snatched a thrilling, last-gasp win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday. Veteran quarterback Matt Ryan played a vintage football game, as he threw 42 passes for 389 yards and three touchdowns. The Colts’ offense finally found some semblance of life, just in time for Frank Reich’s team.

Indy lost the reverse game against Tennessee in Week 4 and cannot afford another loss to their main divisional rival. The Titans won that game 24-17 with a helping hand from Derrick Henry. The ferocious running back ran for 114 yards on 23 carries and one touchdown. Defensively,  Tennessee’s interior defensive pressure rattled Ryan, and the former MVP crumbled under pressure. The Colts are 31st in pass block win rate, and with an ailing running game, the Titans may get more chances to tee off on Ryan. Indianapolis’ schedule is strange; by the close of play, they will have completed two of their divisional series’ before November. A loss here to Tennessee would be a seismic blow to their division title hopes.

On the other hand, if the Titans win, it would feel like they are in complete control of this division. With home advantage and fresh legs, Mike Vrabel’s team will like their chances of sweeping Indianapolis.

Jets Taking Flight

NewYorkJets.com

The New York Jets stay on the road this week as they visit Denver for a matchup with the Broncos. After last Sunday’s momentous win over the Green Bay Packers, Robert Saleh’s side could double up on away wins to get to 5-2. And if the Jets defense can replicate last week’s performance against a Broncos offense devoid of confidence now being led by Brett Rypien. Rypien will replace Russell Wilson as he deals with a variety of injuries. Ironically, Rypien’s only career start occurred in 2020 against the Jets, and he led the Broncos to a win over those Jets. However, when Rypien does take the field, he will see a very different Jets defense.

The 2022 Jets defense is much more robust, aggressive, and talented. Up front, Quinnen Williams is a wrecking ball. Williams leads all interior defensive tackles in sacks, pressure rate, and sack rate. Williams is the battering ram of this group, and if Rypien feels interior pressure, Williams will be the man responsible. At the linebacker level, CJ Mosley is patrolling the field like a general. Mosley is physical in the run and athletic enough in coverage. He leads the Jets’ defense brilliantly. And lastly, rookie Ahmad Gardner is putting the NFL on notice.

Through six weeks, Gardner has allowed a 19.5 passer rating while in single coverage. Gardner is 1st in pass breakups and has given up one reception for six yards in man coverage. These three playmakers are propelling this Jets’ defense up the league. With Wilson out, Broncos head coach Nate Hackett must devise a plan to negate the Jets’ defense. Rypien will not ad-lib or play off-script like Wilson. Therefore Hackett will need a near-perfect game plan to get the win. Those with Orange tinted glasses will be watching the rookie head coach in this one. As for the Jets, they are starting 5-2 in the face. It could be another excellent Sunday in New York and New Jersey.

A Little Slice Of History

Week 7 closes with a Monday Night Football matchup between the New England Patriots and the Chicago Bears. On paper, this is not really an exciting matchup, but it could be a history-making night for Bill Belichick. The legendary head coach is on 324 wins, tied 2nd with George ‘Papa Bear’ Halas, the founding father of the Chicago Bears. If the Patriots win, Belichick will move into an outright 2nd, with only Don Shula ahead of him. The 2022 Patriots are not a great team.

Nonetheless, their defense is still fantastic. The defense is a classic Belichick unit; unspectacular, efficient, and consistent. They are strong on the back end, with rookie Jack Jones quickly looking like a steal. With Justin Fields enduring the seven cycles of quarterback hell, the Patriots should win comfortably. And when they do, even the often myopic, sullen, stern-faced Belichick may crack a smile. From a humble beginning with the Detroit Lions as an assistant special teams coach to Super Bowls in New York and New England, Belichick has done it all. The NFL’s omnipresent coaching force does not like the limelight, but the Monday night lights will solely focus on the oft-controversial, highly successful head coach.

TAYYIB ABU

CFB/NFL ANALYST

Tayyib is an avid NFL fan and, as a follower of the detroit lions, is a permanent resident in the honolulu blue heartbreak hotel. writing football articles since 2019, tayyib loves everything about the sport except that wins are not a qb stat. follow him on twitter @TayyibABU1

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