NFL Divisional Deep Dive: AFC West

By Peter Mann

As Denver Broncos edged the hosting Las Vegas Raiders this past weekend in the AFC West, the coming round of action, as the regular season crashes headlong towards its conclusion, sees the ailing Kansas City Chiefs host the Los Angeles Chargers.

It’s a pair of divisional matchups that don’t quite decide the destination of the divisional title, the Chargers will be looking to put continued pressure on perhaps this season’s surprise package, and Sean Payton’s Broncos.

As Deep Dive’s go this week, it was hoped, before a football was even thrown or kicked, that Pete Carroll could do something good in Vegas, well there’s always next year; on the flip side most fans probably didn’t really expect the season in which Andy Reid’s Chiefs have had either, again, there’s always next year.

You actually have to go back to 2009 for a franchise other than the Chiefs or the Broncos to win the AFC West, the former of those having won the last nine (2010, 2016-24) whilst the latter won five-in-a row (2011-15) and look odds-on to claim this seasons.

Denver Broncos (11-2, 1st, defeated Las Vegas Raiders 24-17)

Sean Payton’s Broncos have surprised many a football fan outside of Denver this season, some say the schedule has favoured them, and that may be – but you can only beat what is put in front of you, and that’s what Bo Nox, RJ Harvey, Troy Fanklin, Marvin Mims Jnr et al, have done.

Having spent over a decade at the helm of the New Orleans Saints, leading them to Super Bowl success back in 2009, Payton took over in Denver in 2023, becoming their eighth Head Coach since 2010. Back-to-back third place finishes in the West have strengthened the gut of Mile High, and they’ve ran with it this season.

The three-times Super Bowl winners lost two of their first three outings, on the road at Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers, starting 1-2, since then though, it’s been non-stop Broncos football, and they’ve loved it.

Highlights have seen wins over Philadelphia Eagles (21-17), and Dallas Cowboys (44-24), whilst they’ve also seen off the Chiefs, and inflicted two of the eleven losses on the Raiders, the second of those coming in their last outing, picking up a 24-17 success.

With wide receiver Marvin Mims Jnr returning a punt from AJ Cole for a 48yd score, adding to a pair of rushing scores from their quarterback, Nix, and running back Harvey, and the perfect kicking of Wil Lutz (1/1 FG, 23lng, 3/3PATs), continued the Mile High Hype-Show.

In that win, Nix posted 31/38, 212yds (pass) 3cars,15yds, 1TD (rush); RJ Harvey 17cars, 75yds, 1TD (rush) as the Broncos eased to 11-2 with four games of the regular season to play, including the last two of the Chiefs and the Chargers – they’ll want things wrapped up by then, that’s for sure.

Los Angeles Chargers (9-4, 2nd, defeated Philadelphia Eagles 22-19 OT)

The Chargers may well be fifteen-time AFL/AFC West divisional winners, but that’s as far as they’ve got; they were the last, non-Chiefs/Broncos winner of the division, and they’re hoping that Jim Harbaugh can build something in Los Angeles.

In his second season at the helm, he’s hoping he can build on last season’s 11-6 record, and are still in with a chance of taking the division from the Broncos; their OT success at SoFi, against the Eagles, will have afforded more hope.

Starting 3-0, the Chargers wheels wobbled a little over the next four weeks, losing to New York Giants, Washington Commanders, and the Colts, with a narrow win at home to Miami Dolphins in that run. Come the defeat to the Colts however, the Chargers, led by quarterback Justin Herbert, found themselves at just 4-3, and in need of a boost.

A bruising defeat at Jacksonville Jaguars has been the only low point of late though, collecting wins over Minnesota Vikings (37-10), Tennessee Titans (27-20), Pittsburgh Steelers (25-10), Las Vegas Raiders (31-14), and the Eagles (22-19 OT) in their last outing.

Cameron Dicker’s boot featured heavily in the overtime success against the Eagles, posting 5/5FGs, 54lng, 1/1PAT, of which that 54yds longest, for a player who started his NFL career, briefly, with their opponents back in 2022, won the Chargers the game.

Before that, quarterback Herbert registered 12/26, 139yds, 1TD (pass), whilst running back Omarion Hampton had 11yds, 1TD (rec), from a game that was all about the kickers, Dicker’s five FGs for the Chargers added to by Jake Elliott’s four-from-five for the Eagles.

Harbaugh though will be hoping his charges don’t rely too heavily on kicking in their remaining four games, more so in they want to add another AFC West title to the honour roll.

Kansas City Chiefs (6-7, 3rd, lost 10-20 to the Houston Texans)

For the seventh time this season, Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs have been beaten; yes, seven defeats, that’s the same as the past two seasons combined. But then, looking more at recent Chiefs seasons and they’ve won the last nine AFC West titles.

That’s nine and done, with either the Broncos, or the Chargers, set to claim this seasons, and it even looks like Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce et al will not even be in the play-offs either with their best winning run being the three-in-a-row put together in October, which pushed them from a 2-3 to a 5-3 side.

Granted the Chiefs have beaten Baltimore Ravens (37-20), Detroit Lions (30-17), and the Colts (23-20 OT), but they’ve not really mustered to much on the field of play, losing their last two outings, shipping over fifty points combined, in losses to the Cowboys (28-31) and the Texans (10-20) and, with three of their last four against divisional rivals, it’s anybody’s guess as to what record the Chiefs will finish with.

In the defeat to the Texans, their only scores came via running back Kareem Hunt’s rushing touchdown in the third quarter, whilst kicker Harrison Butker added a 36yd FG shortly after, as their MVP quarterback, Mahomes, was pretty much shackled throughout.

Las Vegas Raiders (2-11, 4th, lost 17-24 to the Denver Broncos)

It’s been a while since the Raiders, under any of their names, have tasted success, and it doesn’t look like changing any time soon – since going all the way to the Super Bowl, back in 2002, the Raiders have only had two winning seasons since, in 2016 and 2019.

On course for their worst season since 2014, and the least number of wins in a season since 2006, when they finished 2-14, this has certainly been one to forget despite it having promised so much following the arrival of Pete Carroll as Head Coach having previously spent 14 seasons at the helm of the Seattle Seahawks.

An opening day victory away to New England Patriots (20-13) really did provide false hope for the               Raider Nation, with their next, and only other victory, arriving five weeks later, at home to Tennessee Titans (20-10).

Since then, back in week six, the Raiders have lost their last seven straight, beginning with a debilitating, 31-0 drubbing at the Arrowhead Stadium, and the Chiefs, whilst further defeats came at the hands of the Jaguars (29-30 OT), Broncos twice (7-10 & 17-24), Dallas Cowboys (16-33), Cleveland Browns (10-24), and the Chargers (14-31).

The second of those losses to the Broncos, 17-24 at the Raiders’ Allegiant Stadium, was their eleventh of the regular season, with both quarterbacks, Geno Smith and Kenny Pickett, responsible for a scoring drive apiece.

The veteran Smith, who has been the target of many a fans’ ill-feeling this season, posted 13/21, 116yds, 1TD (pass), whilst understudy Pickett chipped in with 8/11, 97yds, 1TD (pass); Brock Bowers 46yds, 1TD (rec), and Shedrick Jackson, the great nephew of Bo Jackson, added 25yds, 1TD (rec) – Jackson’s score was his first reception and touchdown in the football league, with a little over two minutes remaining of the contest.

Raiders’ kicker, Daniel Carlson, continued his relatively successful season with the boot, adding more points against the Broncos to finish with 1/1FG, 46lng, 2/2PATs, with the despondent Raiders now headed into the final four games of the season, looking to restore some kind of pride to the Nation.

Still To Come: A Lot To Play For

This weekend sees a divisional matchup in the AFC West, of which there’s a few still to come, as the second placed Chargers travel to Arrowhead to face a Chiefs roster trying to salvage something from their season; meanwhile, the Broncos, #1 seed in the AFC, welcome Green Bay Packers, the #2 seed in the NFC, to Mile High, and the Raiders, they’re on the road at the NFCs #3 seed, Philadelphia Eagles.  

Closing out the season, Sean Payton’s Broncos, following the visit of Green Bay, welcome the Jaguars, before visiting Kansas City on Christmas Day, and finishing with a home dance against the Chargers at Mile High; presently second in the division, Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers are on the road for three of their remaining games, at Kansas, Dallas, and the close against Denver, with a home clash against Houston Texans at SoFi over the festive period.

Andy Reid’s Chiefs have a trio of divisional matchups in the final four weeks of the regular season, at Arrowhead against the Chargers and the Broncos, before finishing the season in Las Vegas, they’ll also host Tennessee Titans; as for Pete Carroll’s Raiders, they’ll want to finish off as best they can and have two road games up next, at Philadelphia, then Houston Texans, before closing their season at home, welcoming New York Giants, before a revenge mission with the Chiefs at the Allegiant.

There’s certainly still a lot to play for in the AFC West, both for the division, playoff seedings, and for pride, in the closing four weeks of gametime.

PETER MANN

NFL ANALYST

PETER IS A LIFELONG SPORTS FAN, JOURNALIST AND AUTHOR BASED IN COUNTY DURHAM. HE HAS FOLLOWED THE NFL AND THE RAIDERS SINCE THE 1980s, AND LOVES BOTH SPORTS AND FAMILY HISTORY. PETER HAS A DEGREE IN SPORT & EXERCISE PSYCHOLOGY, AND CAN BE FOUND ON TWITTER @petermannwriter

 
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