NFL DFS: DraftKings Week 16 Strategy
The NFL DFS Week 16 main slate is a 10-game fantasy jamboree with only one game which has an implied total of over 50 pts. This is good news if you love correlated lineups as much as me. Week 15 was a chalk fest with lots of high scoring plays. This reduced the number of successful leverage plays and meant that correlation wasn’t as important. Thankfully, if the Vegas totals are correct, there should be fewer fantasy points on offer this week. This combined with a small 10 game slate means correlation should be a bigger factor.
So here are the leverage plays and correlated lineups I’m targeting this week. If you want to know more about correlated lineups and leverage plays, please click here.
These are my personal opinions on the games and strategies at the time of writing this. I may employ different players and strategies than above if later or further information makes me re-evaluate my opinions.
Atlanta Falcons @ Kansas City Chiefs
This game has an implied total of 54 points but I’m being cautious with how much exposure I have to a game played outdoors, at Arrowhead, in December.
The Falcons running game has vanished it seems. Touches are spread out between multiple backs with none of them getting enough work to be fantasy relevant.
This has led to a resurgence in the Atlanta passing game. Calvin Ridley ($8.5k) has been ridiculous for the past 5 weeks. Most of that has been with Julio Jones out ($6.8k) but even when he’s been in, Ridley has received double-digit targets. If you think Ryan can successfully throw the ball outside, Ridley is a fantastic play even at this inflated price. Russell Gage at $5.1k still seems cheap for all the targets he’s received in recent weeks.
Kansas City Chiefs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6k) looks like he’ll be out for a couple of weeks so Le’Veon Bell ($5.8k) is expected to get the majority of the backfield touches. However, he will probably lose carries to Darrel Williams ($4.2k) and the Chiefs are a pass-first team anyway.
Tyreek Hill ($9k) and Travis Kelce ($8.5k) are now getting prohibitively expensive. They both proved last week that they’re not guaranteed to reach value even in this high-powered offense. They both have the potential to smash though especially against a leaky Falcons D (they have improved in recent weeks).
It’s virtually impossible to stack Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce this week which is how I usually approach KC games. So my favourite option here is a Ryan, Ridley, Gage stack with one of either Hill or Kelce to run it back.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
This is a dome game with an implied total of 49.5 between the suddenly Jalen Hurts inspired offense and the Cowboys D who continues to give up big fantasy performances.
Miles Sanders ($7k) is the king of the backfield in Philly. He was the only back to run the ball last week and I expect him to receive similar usage again. A running QB like Hurts opens things up for the running back and the Cowboys give up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position.
For me, the only viable options amongst the pass catchers are the tight ends. Dallas Goedert ($3.6k) and Zach Ertz ($3.1k) received 15 targets between them last week. Jalen Reagor ($4.6k) received eight targets from Hurts last week and looks to be his favourite option but his production is very inconsistent.
For Dallas, Tony Pollard ($6.5k) stepped into the bellcow role when Ezekiel Elliott ($6.7k) was ruled out at inactives. DraftKings has bumped up Pollard’s price this week. It’s not a great matchup whoever starts but if Elliott is ruled out, at least you know Pollard is getting all of the backfield work.
In recent weeks, no individual pass-catcher has stood out for Dallas. The targets are inconsistent and this is capping the ceiling of these receivers. However, none of them are that expensive. Amari Cooper ($5.7k), CeeDee Lamb ($5.3k), and Michael Gallup ($4.1k) all have paths to hitting value. It’s just hard to know which one it will be in week 16. Gallup is currently carrying a questionable tag. If he can’t suit up, Noah Brown ($3k) might be a great value option. He received 6 targets last week and at his price, he doesn’t need to do much.
Plenty of ways to go in this matchup but I like a naked (without any pass-catchers) Jalen Hurts with two of the three Dallas WR’s. If I had to decide now, I’d choose Lamb and Gallup, if fit.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans
Neither team has much to play for but occasionally that can lead to big fantasy games, plus the game is in a dome which is a real bonus in December. Also, each team has an awful defense and give up a lot of fantasy points to the opposition.
Giovani Bernard ($4.8k) wrested back the RB1 role after week 14’s fumble and produced over 22 fpts. Oddly his price has dropped this week against a defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points to the position. If you think he has the same role this week, he’s a lock.
Ryan Finley’s first start against the Steelers only produced 13 pass attempts as they relied heavily on the run game. If that continues, none of the Bengals receiving options are viable. Tyler Boyd ($4.9k) left the game on Monday through injury so that’s something to keep an eye on. Tee Higgins ($4.7k) is the pick of the receivers but I can’t see myself playing any pass-catchers here.
David Johnson ($6.1k) finally had a ceiling game but that was due to his 11 catches rather than his rushing. He’s been rewarded with a $1k price bump which makes him unappealing even though it’s a decent matchup.
However, I’m on board with the Texan’s passing game. Brandin Cooks ($6.2k), Keke Coutee ($5.4k), and Chad Hansen ($4.4k) all look enticing in this game. My favourite is Hansen because of the price. Jordan Akins ($3.3k) has back-to-back six target games but, having been burnt by him so much this year, I’m struggling to play him.
For me, there’s only really one way to go with stacking this game. Watson plus two of his receivers with Bernard bringing it back for Cincy.