NFL DFS: DraftKings Week 10 Strategy
After the success of my previous week’s NFL DFS article focusing on correlated lineups and leverage plays, I’m going to continue with that format for the DraftKings main slate for each week. Click here if you want to know more about correlated lineups and leverage plays. Here are the games and players I’m targeting in Week 10.
These are my personal opinions on the games and strategies at the time of writing this. I may employ different players and strategies than above if later or further information makes me re-evaluate my opinions.
Buffalo Bills @ Arizona Cardinals
This matchup has the highest implied total at 56 points and is expected to be a very close game. This is usually the perfect recipe for fantasy goodness!
Arizona Cardinals
This matchup has the highest implied total at 56 points and is expected to be a very close game. This is usually the perfect recipe for fantasy goodness!
Both QBs are obvious options but they’re both very expensive so you’ll need to find savings elsewhere. Kyler Murray has scored a rushing touchdown in every game but one. This is why he’s the most expensive QB on the slate at $8k. With the Bills giving up the 6th most fantasy points to RBs, Chase Edmonds ($6.3k) looks like he’s in a smash spot. However, he looked like that last week too, and converted his 28 touches into only 11.8 fpts. Also, it’s possible that Kenyan Drake ($4.9k) will be back on Sunday to vulture his touches.
In terms of pass-catchers, you don’t have to look past Deandre Hopkins ($7.7k) and Christian Kirk ($5.7k). Kirk has scored over 20 fpts in each of his last 3 games whereas the usually reliable Hopkins has been very inconsistent. You’d expect Hopkins to get the Tre’Davious White treatment on Sunday which should downgrade his production but last week DK Metcalf did just fine in a similar position.
Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen ($7.5k) is more inconsistent in his fantasy points scoring but is coming off a 39 fpt game against Seattle. With such a large game total and an expected aerial shootout, I think he can reach the 30s in fpts again this week. The fact his running backs are so inconsistent means that he’s the goal-line back and gets the work inside the 5-yard line. Talking of inconsistent RBs, it’s hard to play anyone on the Bills. Moss ($5.2k) and Singletary ($4.3k) are priced down but their roles seem to change from week-to-week. If I was forced to play one, it would be Moss but I’d have to be desperate.
Other than Stefon Diggs ($7.5k), the other receivers for the Bills are very TD dependent from a fantasy scoring point-of-view. However, they do offer you cheap exposure to this high scoring affair. Gabriel Davis ($3.4k) is my favourite of these but there’s as much chance of any of the others going off on any given week. The TE’s are a revolving door target-wise with anyone of them possible of turning up with a touchdown. They’re not in play for me.
Unsurprisingly, I’ll have a lot of exposure to this game with many combos of players but my favourite stack is Murray, Hopkins, Kirk with a Diggs runback.
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
The second-highest implied total on the slate and fairly restricted target trees which makes stacking a lot easier than the previous game.
Seattle Seahawks
The second-highest implied total on the slate and fairly restricted target trees which makes stacking a lot easier than the previous game.
Russell Wilson ($7.7k) continues to do Russ things. He’s averaging over 31 fpts per game as the Seattle defense keeps placing pressure on the offense to score. At running back, Deejay Dallas ($5.1k) had appeared to be the RB1 in the absence of Chris Carson ($6.2k) and Carlos Hyde ($4.5k) but last week he shared the backfield with Travis Homer ($4k). It’s possible that Carson and Hyde will miss out on Sunday again and if so, Homer is a great leverage play for two reasons. Firstly, the majority of the ownership will go to Metcalf and Lockett, and secondly, a lot of people will play Mike Davis of the Panthers as their $4k RB.
Do I really need to tell you how good DK Metcalf ($7.6k) is? He’s matchup proof and game-script proof. His partner-in-crime, Tyler Lockett ($6.5k) is a lot more inconsistent but when he scores big, he scores really big. He’s done that twice this year. David Moore at $3.4k is another option but he’s too TD dependent for me to have a large exposure.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams aren’t a team I usually target in DFS but they’re playing the Seahawks who have haemorrhaged fantasy points to teams this year. Jared Goff at only $6.5k offers great value in a game that should be a shootout. The running back situation is a bit of a mess for us to play one. It looks like Henderson ($5.9k) would become the starter but he keeps getting injured in games. I’m avoiding this backfield completely.
Over 60% of Goff’s target this year has gone to the trio of Cooper Kupp ($6.9K), Robert Woods ($6.6k), and Josh Reynolds ($3.5k). Kupp is clearly his favourite receiver and is an obvious play against the leaky ‘Hawks defense. In the last 2 weeks, Reynolds has only 1 less target than Woods at a $3.1k discount.
Again, I’m playing a few combos of this game but if I had to play only one, it would be Goff, Kupp, and Reynolds from the Rams with Metcalf of the Seahawks.
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
With the third-highest implied total, this game offers some great value which will allow you to pay up at other positions. All the fantasy-relevant pieces of this game are cheaply priced and I don’t expect this to be a highly owned matchup.
Denver Broncos
Drew Lock is coming off a 33 fpt performance and his price has only risen to $5.5k. The Denver backs, Melvin Gordon ($5.2k), and Phillip Lindsay ($5k) are priced down too but that’s because they’re splitting carries. They both appear to be fit now so I expect this to continue which makes them a fade for me.
Jerry Jeudy ($5.6k) showed last week what he’s capable of with a 28.5 fpts game. We’ve been waiting for him to put everything together and he finally did in Week 9. Tim Patrick ($4.9k) received 9 targets but couldn’t really convert them into a big score. Noah Fant ($4.9K) was on fire at the beginning of the game but missed snaps due to injury. He should be fine for this week though. They’re all good GPP options and a great price.
Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr ($5.4k) is playing really well from a real-life perspective but that doesn’t always translate into fantasy points. After week 1, Josh Jacobs ($6.5k) has flattered to deceive. He’s playing with a knee injury and that seems to be slowing his production. However, the Raiders have shown that if they get out to a lead, they will feed Jacobs the ball.
Darren Waller ($5.9k) is receiving WR1 targets and he’s clearly the number one option for Carr. He’s only turned that into a huge score once but he’s very consistent and if the Raiders score a lot of touchdowns, he’ll be a part of it. Receiver-wise, Nelson Agholor ($4.9k) is more expensive than Henry Ruggs ($4.5k). That’s because Agholor is more consistent but neither of them has lit it up recently. If you play Ruggs you are buying his potential upside which he’s only shown once this year. He’s averaging only 3 targets a game so he’s purely a tournament play.
My favourite stack here is Lock and Jeudy of the Broncos with Waller from the Raiders. It’s a cheap stack which leaves you with plenty of money to spend at other positions
