NFL DFS: DraftKings Championship Sunday Strategy
Championship weekend on DraftKings brings us a two-game slate of NFL DFS action. With such a small player pool, differentiating your lineup from the field will be hard and I expect most winning lineups to be duplicated.
Due to the limited options at the RB position, I think the most common roster construction will have 4 receivers or possibly 2 tight ends. The key to winning tournaments this week will be choosing the right receiver in the $4.5k to $3.5k range. You can make a case for most of them but confidently predicting which ones will succeed is a bit of a lottery.
These are my personal opinions on the games and strategies at the time of writing this. I may employ different players and strategies than above if later or further information makes me re-evaluate my opinions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers
I expect the QBs in this matchup, Rodgers ($6.5k) and Brady ($6.1k) to be the lesser-owned on the slate. They both make great pivot options away from Allen and Mahomes. Fournette at $5.3k is one of the better RB options in a two-game slate without any outstanding RBs. Ronald Jones ($4.6k) had plenty of work last week and its possible Arians shakes things up and gives RoJo more work this week. Remember, Fournette has been a healthy scratch during the season when RoJo was fully fit. I expect Brady to check down to his backs frequently in this game so they’re both in play for me. Aaron Jones is the most expensive RB on the slate ($6.5k) but he doesn’t get a bellcow workload. You’re hoping he breaks a long one and/or finds the endzone for him to hit value.
There are plenty of receiving options in this game. Davante Adams is only $8k this week and seems a bargain. Valdes-Scantling ($3.9k) and Lazard ($4.2k) can hit a big play occasionally but they don’t have regular production. Playing either is a gamble. The trio of TB receivers, Evans ($5.8k), Godwin ($5.4k), and Brown ($4.7k) all disappointed last week but I expect them to bounceback. As ever, picking the right combo is a bit of a dart throw but my favourite this week is Godwin. I expect Evans to be taken out of the game by Jaire Alexander and for Godwin to play exclusively in the slot. At his price, Godwin is a lock for me. Robert Tonyan at $3.6k is one of the only options if you’re not going Kelce at the TE position.
Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs
I expect most of the ownership to be in this game. Josh Allen at $6.9k is going to be popular and rightfully so. Patrick Mahomes ($7.6k) is likely to play but remember, he injured his toe before he was taken out of the game for concussion. I’m going to fade or be lightweight on Mahomes this weekend. The RB situation on both teams is tricky for different reasons. If Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($5k) is back, how will the carries be split with Darrel Williams ($4.8k)? Devin Singletary ($4.5k) is the only worthwhile RB in Buffalo but they’re a pass-first team so he doesn’t get many touches. At their prices, they could hit value and allow you to pay up at receiver but are you confident?
At receiver Hill ($7.2k) and Diggs ($7k) are both great value and lots of lineups will start with these two. Beasley ($4.1k) and Davis ($3.5k) laid an egg last week as John Brown ($4.3k) returned to his scoring ways. Mercole Hardman (4k) saw 4 targets but like the other non-Tyreek receivers, he’s inconsistent.
Travis Kelce ($8k) is the obvious standout TE and he’s the most expensive player on the slate with Adams. Dawson Knox might fall into the endzone and he’s only $2.8k. He’s another option if you want to pay up at receiver.