From The Sublime to the Ridiculous: What The Midpoint Playoff Picture Reveals
By Paul Gould
Nine weeks are in the books, with nine to go before we hit the playoffs. It’s at this mid-point of the season that I take a first furtive peek at the Playoff Picture page of the NFL’s website. For several reasons, it makes interesting reading.
Beyond revealing the matchups that would take place if the season ended today, other intriguing narratives emerge…
Kings of the North
Since the NFL playoffs expanded to include 14 teams in 2020/21, an entire division has never made it through to compete in a postseason. But the NFC North is currently poised to achieve that remarkable feat. Chicago occupies top spot and would qualify as the No. 2 seed, while Detroit, Minnesota and Green Bay would claim the three wildcard berths as the fifth, sixth and seventh seeds respectively.
The division is incredibly strong from top to bottom and there’s little to choose between the four teams. On the evidence of the first half of the campaign, all of them would be worthy of making the playoffs and any final order within the NFC North is entirely possible at this stage.
Strengthening the case that the quartet will make it to the dance is the fact that the 6-3 Packers, who currently occupy the final wildcard spot, hold a one-win advantage over the nearest contenders to replace them, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams. The NFC West pair were touted as the strongest teams in football at the start of the season, but both have struggled to compile unconvincing 5-4 records. No other team currently outside the NFC playoff bracket holds a winning record, so at this stage the competition also lacks depth.
The Packers had a shaky start themselves but have looked more assured in the last month and momentum is with them. The offense has demonstrated a penchant for explosive plays with QB Jordan Love slinging bombs to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.
Ultimately, the outcome of the Week 12 Thursday Night clash between the Packers and Rams could prove pivotal in determining whether the NFC North can make history. The Packers are the only NFC North team remaining on the Rams schedule, while the Seahawks already suffered defeat against their NFC North opponent, the Chicago Bears.
But perhaps the weakest link in the NFC North is the Minnesota Vikings. It’s been a tough couple of weeks for the Vikings, having gone from holding the last unblemished record to a two-game slide which has exposed their huge imbalance. The defense is fearsome but the offense has frequently failed to capitalise on the opportunities it has presented to them.
Their Monday Night defeat by the Bills saw them lose their grip on first place in the NFC North and slip to third, just half a game ahead of the Packers. Will the subsequent return of Kirk Cousins be enough to fix the problems and get them over the line?
Under the radar
The Playoff Picture page also attaches playoff probability percentages to each team. Over in the AFC, of the clubs on the outside looking in, it’s the 11th-ranked Houston Texans who have the highest odds of sneaking into the final seven with a 34% chance.
As the Jacksonville Jaguars disappear over the horizon, seemingly in possession of the AFC South title, the Texans are almost certainly pinning their hopes on a wildcard berth. That was an improbable scenario for Houston, following a 0-4 start. The defense that was the jewel in their crown a year ago has been a shadow of that dominant unit and some of the offensive play-calling has been questioned at times.
Coming off a bye and facing the hapless Chargers on Sunday was just the tonic the Texans needed. They delivered a 44-22 haymaker in a game that was never close and Houston looked every inch the team that went 12-5 in 2025.
The defense sacked Justin Herbert eight times, picked him off, and forced a fumble. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud produced another electric performance, throwing for almost 400 yards and five touchdown passes.
Their upcoming schedule looks favourable too. Over the next five weeks, they only face one team currently occupying a playoff spot – the Pittsburgh Steelers. All of a sudden, Houston appears to be back in the mix.
Their ‘under the radar’ equivalent in the NFC is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Whilst they rank 12th out of 16 in the Conference, the Bucs have a 37% chance of making the playoffs at this point. That strange anomaly is due to the overall weakness of the NFC South in which all four teams have three wins and losing records.
Tampa may have accidentally stumbled on an offensive identity, with a heavy emphasis placed on the running game. In an effort to protect QB Baker Mayfield on his return from injury against the Panthers in Week 7, Mayfield attempted a mere 11 passes. The following week against the Falcons, a game played in torrential rain, Mayfield went to the air just three times and, incredibly, the Buccaneers won without completing a pass.
Over the course of those two games, Tampa had 107 rushing attempts for 482 yards. Bucky Irving has been in great form, and Kenny Gainwell has provided a one-two punch when required. Tampa returned to a more balanced attack in their narrow defeat to Chicago on Sunday, but it was the running game that proved more effective once again.
The Buccaneers occupy third place in the NFC South, half a game behind the Panthers and Saints, but they are the only team in the division with a positive points differential and are 2-0 in divisional matches, courtesy of their recent rushing frenzy. Barring miracles, only the division winner will make the playoffs and the Bucs look more than capable of taking the crown.
Control-Alt-Delete
The season is already over for seven teams, according to the NFL Playoff Picture page, all of whom have a 1% chance of making the playoffs. The Jets, Colts, Dolphins, Titans, Chargers, Cardinals and Eagles bear that depressing cross and are already trying to figure out how to bounce back in 2027.
The Jets possibly hold the most favourable position, with 3 of the top 13 picks in the draft in their back pocket to add to the talent they’ve acquired in recent years. A change in coaching personnel appears to be the most obvious way to change the club’s fortunes in the meantime.
The Dolphins have already found their coach in Jeff Hafley and despite their 1-7 record, Hafley has a young Miami squad playing competitively. The rebuild will take time but the Dolphins might be on the right track in laying solid foundations.
The Titans quest to turn things around has floundered again this season. Trading Jeffery Simmons to the Bears for future first round picks gives them further opportunities to find franchise players but they’ve struggled to identify such talent in recent years. Cam Ward continues to struggle at quarterback and questions about Robert Saleh remaining as head coach may grow if wins fail to materialise in the second half of the season.
Existing in a semi-permanent state of purgatory are the Cardinals. Sending Jacoby Brissett to the Ravens is a clear indication of Arizona’s plight and there’s not an obvious and straight path to salvation ahead for them.
CEO Carly Irsay-Gordon is looking for rapid improvement in Indianapolis. The Colts have sold the family silver ahead of the trade deadline in an attempt to recover the draft picks they gave away in the Sauce Gardner deal. Quenton Nelson, DeForest Buckner, Keenan Allen and Josh Downs have all departed and they must now try to rebuild around star RB Jonathan Taylor.
Without doubt the two most unexpected members of this sorry 1% club are the Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Chargers, both having been pencilled in to make the playoffs ahead of the season. In each case, the inquest into what has gone wrong for them will be long and painful.
When supposedly good teams perform this badly, injuries will always be part of the story. That certainly applies here, but the Eagles and Chargers must accept some responsibility for taking wrong turns on their way to the worst records in their respective Conferences.
The Eagles offense has looked bereft of ideas at times. They have been slow starters, scoring just 28 points in the first quarter this season, and the offensive line, once the bedrock of their success, has continued to regress. And the tale of woe is mirrored on defense. The Eagles have the fewest forced turnovers in the league, a paltry five across nine games.
As for the Chargers, not only have the wheels fallen off but the undercarriage is ablaze and the ejector seats have malfunctioned. Hiring Mike McDaniel as OC, a move which caused so much excitement at the time, has so far proved a disaster. The offense has been beleaguered by penalties, turnovers and basic errors.
While McDaniel has been under the glare of scrutiny, new DC Chris O’Leary has also struggled to make an impact on the other side of the ball. However, the defensive stats are being dragged down by the unit being on the field so much because the offense can’t gain any traction.
The big problem for the Eagles and Chargers is that neither anticipated being in this position at this stage and they must now scramble to find a Plan B. 2026 is a lost campaign – building a strategy for 2027 is now the priority.
PAUL GOULD
NFL ANALYST
A freelance writer and editor based in Cambridgeshire, Paul has avidly followed the NFL since the late 1980’s and spends much of his spare time wondering if he’ll ever see the Raiders play in a Super Bowl again.
