FILM ROOM: Is Jordan Love worth $220m?
By Tyler Arthur
As the NFL preseason kicked into full gear and training camps entered their padded portion, the news broke that the Green Bay Packers’ heir apparent had been crowned. Jordan Love inked a whopping $220m, four-year contract, including a $75m fully guaranteed signing bonus.
This deal doesn’t just secure the future of the Lambeau faithful’s QB1, it also puts the fourth-year QB in tied-first place for the biggest annual salary in the NFL, alongside Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Jacksonville’s Trevor Lawrence. The $55m that these three take home sets them above the $53m of Tua Tagovailoa (signed the very same day as Love) and Jared Goff.
It is worth a reminder that the NFL’s highest paid player can often be more a measurement of which franchise QB got their contract most recently, as opposed to a direct ranking by skill or value. Lamar Jackson earns $52m a year and Patrick Mahomes is all the way down at $45m, having signed a 10-year deal all the way back in 2020.
However, while recency plays a huge factor, it still begs the question, is Jordan Love worth the money?
Favre. Rodgers. Love?
There’s no doubt now that the Packers are committed to Jordan Love as their franchise quarterback – filling the shoes of Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers who came before him (with those two responsible for over 25 years of consistent quarterback play in Wisconsin prior to 2023). Don’t forget, though, he’s barely had any time on the field.
Drafted in 2020 with the 26th overall pick, the Utah State signal-caller was redshirted behind Aaron Rodgers as he finished out his stint with the Packers on a high, winning the Most Valuable Player award in back to back years (2021 & 2022) before leaving after the ‘23 campaign. This meant that despite being a first-rounder, Love didn’t get any meaningful playing time at all, prior to the 2023-24 season.
But, once he got his opportunity, the past became irrelevant. He had to prove that he was the man for the job.
A Season of Two Halves
The Packers front office clearly felt he did just that, as they made him the highest paid player in the league after one season as a starter.
Let’s look at the numbers. He completed the season with:
4,159 passing yards (7th in NFL)
32 passing TD’s (2nd in NFL)
11 INT’s (T-10th in NFL)
Those numbers aren’t bad at all. Nothing crazy, but solid. Maybe, the Interceptions could have been a little lower, but what can you do?
Where these stats look a little more interesting is when you split the season down the middle.
Love had a pretty unremarkable open to the year, the Packers starting with a 3-6 record, and their QB rocking a very disappointing 14-10 TD to INT ratio. But, from Week 11 onwards – as he became more comfortable, and confident – everything started clicking.
In the final 8 weeks of the year, Love was one of the better quarterbacks in the league, showing his true potential. Over the two months, he posted:
2,150 passing yards | 70.25% completion rate | 18 Touchdowns : 1 Interception.
If you look at this as a pseudo ‘rookie’ season, that stretch is incredibly impressive, and gives an insight into what the Packers are now hoping to see for the duration of this new four-year contract. A consistent production of yards and touchdowns, but with low turnovers. Sound, familiar, Packers fans?
FILM ROOM: Jordan Love's 2023 Season
So, the numbers on paper show some promise. What about the film? Well, let’s have a look. What are Jordan Love’s strength’s and weaknesses?
Anticipation & Excellent Ball Placement
These two things might sound like different strengths, but they go hand in hand, especially when you’re playing in the NFL. Against the incredibly talented and smart defenses in the league, you have to marry your reactive reading of the defense with your proactive anticipation of where you need to put the ball. Due to the speed at which the game is played, ball placement is an incredibly difficult thing to master. Your receiver may be wide open at the time you let go of the ball, but running towards the zone defender who is breaking on the ball.
Jordan Love excels at putting the football in places where if his receiver doesn’t catch it, nobody will. He is particularly punishing to man coverage, for this exact reason. When a defender is focused on just shadowing his man, his eyes won’t be on the quarterback, and this allows a talented, confident quarterback to be incredibly aggressive. If you can’t see the ball, you can’t make a play on it.
Here’s a great example of Love throwing a ball to a spot knowing that if his teammate doesn’t come down with it, nobody else will have a chance.
Pre-Snap Look
Based on this pre-snap look, the right side of the field can be discounted, Love knows that his curl routes aren’t going to do anything against man. The lack of an outside deep route also means that Christian Watson’s Post route as the 3 receiver is fairly unlikely to get open. This leaves the short side of the field with the Hitch n Go and the delayed in route. With the safety sitting over the top, it looks like Jayden Reed is probably getting the ball on his hitch-and-in route.
But, don’t forget, kids… Pre-snap reads are often only telling half the story!
Once the ball is snapped, the Cover 2 man under look transitions into Cover 1. The defender lined up over Romeo Doubs joins what now becomes a five-man rush and the safety rolls down.
It’s at this point that Jordan Love immediately knows that he’s throwing the ball right at him.
This is a perfect route in a perfect situation. The safety has to come downhill to ensure that Doubs can’t just turn around as soon as he clears his defender for an automatic five yard gain on a hitch route / quick throw seam. And what route does Doubs have, again? A hitch and go.
Tyrann Mathieu, the Saints Safety, rolls down with a head of steam, and Doubs is able to perfectly bait him by flashing his hands as soon as he clears his man – this creates the illusion that he is the ‘hot’ read and will take the quick yards. When he sees this, Honeybadger speeds up to make a quick hit, at which point Doubs flips his hips and explodes past him.
Despite some serious contact, which drew a flag from the official, Doubs finds himself in behind Mathieu heading down the sideline, where Love is able to place the ball on a dime. At the point where his QB released the ball, Doubs hadn’t even crossed the 40, and he was fighting through contact – he caught the ball at the 20-yard line. This isn’t the traditional example of an ‘anticipation throw’, but it shows that Love is incredibly in tune with the speed of his receivers.
This play is just one of many examples of Love identifying where the ball needs to be and then accurately putting it in the exact spot where only his wideout can make the play.
Quick, Decisive Reads. Great Feel for Leverage
That previous example also showed how quickly the Packers signal-caller can identify what he needs to do, even when a defense disguises the coverage like the Saints did.
Sometimes, it’s easy to watch on TV and think ‘Wow, he’s so open!’. And, it can be even more obvious when you’re watching the All-22 film. However, something still has to be said for the ability that these NFL QB’s have to make a throw directly over the head of multiple defenders, finding their receiver in behind them. What looks like an easy throw from the booth still involves getting the ball up and over, or in between the elite defensive athletes these guys face on a weekly basis.
One of Jordan Love’s best qualities is his confidence in his decision making, and in particular his exceptional feel for – and exploitation of – leverage.
In this example, Matt LaFleur dialled up a play call that would allow his quarterback to take advantage of that skill in the redzone against Pittsburgh’s defense.
So, as you can see, this play is near-enough a half-field read, outside of a halfback swing route. This is a man-beating play, which makes sense, because man coverage is often utilised when facing a condensed bunch formation like this, as their cornerback can come narrower and even the numbers.
Pre-Snap Look
The Steelers are very clearly showing 2 High Man, here – the exact same play that the Saints defense came out showing in our last clip. It looks quite different, due to the condensed formation (both the bunch and X, who is in a ‘Nasty’ alignment, are within 5 yards of the offensive tackle).
There are three defenders plus a safety lined up over the bunch [one for each receiver plus a deep zone] and there is one cornerback lined up five yards off the ball over the top of the X receiver. The man covering X has slight inside leverage (which makes sense, as the ‘Nasty’ alignment is traditionally used for crossing routes, as it is on this play).
This time, the Steelers are playing it honest. They’re showing 2-High Man Under, and that’s exactly what it is.
As I said, playing man coverage makes sense against a bunch. You can press the man who is at the front of the bunch, disrupting everyone’s timing, and the two people behind can take the other two receivers as they embark on their routes.
Just one, problem, though… That pesky return motion!
When Jayden Reed begins his jet motion, the defender who is manned-up on him has to follow him. There aren’t any spare defensive backs to the other side of the field to hand him off to, so he gives chase. Due to the fact he started with outside leverage (hoping to funnel him into traffic and the left-field safety), he has to flat out run after Reed.
So, when Reed puts his foot in the ground and comes back on the ‘Return’ motion, this playcall comes into its own.
As Reed runs back towards the bunch, he has gained a yard of leverage on his defender, and there is 10 yards between them, vertically. To prevent a quick touchdown pass to the pylon [the one that the Chiefs have just won two Super Bowls in a row with], the outermost defender switches his assignment. You can see – and no doubt hear, if you’re on the field – this switch take place. The outside cornerback gestures to his teammate and adopts Reed. Now, Romeo Doubs is the responsibility of the defender who is coming back across from the middle of the field.
Bingo.
Doubs’ out-breaking route is now almost impossible for him to defend, as he recovers from notable inside leverage. As soon as Love saw this defensive assignment swap, he knows where the ball was going. And, despite there being three defenders within five yards of his target, he perfectly placed the ball above his Doubs’ head in the back-corner of the endzone.
Supreme Confidence & Tight Window Throws
It might go without saying for a successful quarterback in the NFL, but Jordan Love plays football with true, unwavering confidence. This confidence in both his decision-making and his own ability is clear to see. This is important, because indecision is the currency of modern NFL defenses. It’s no longer good enough to just sit in a spot-drop zone coverage and hope that you can limit the opposition. You have to confuse and surprise and pressure the QB, or they will dismantle you.
There is one play that I feel perfectly demonstrates just how aggressive Love was at times last year. There are tight window throws and then there’s this laser beam which he threw during a shootout with Detroit.
Against a Cover 1 Robber look, Love wastes no time in rifling this ball into Jayden Reed’s chest, in the middle of traffic. He had just a half-step on his own man, and the defender that was chasing Christian Watson nearly had his helmet knocked off. I wouldn’t be surprised if Reed was questionable with a bruised sternum after this touchdown.
If you have the confidence to throw that pass, and the arm strength to actually complete it, you’re probably not a bad heir to take over this job. The two previous QB’s at Lambeau Field have made a living on tight-window throws and rifling the ball into spots that others wouldn’t dare attempt to, so why are we even surprised?
Interceptions
I’ve been gushing this whole article about how fantastic Jordan Love is – and I’m not going to take all of that back because of some occasional brain farts, but the whole point of watching the film is to see both the good and the bad. Anybody can watch highlights. Sometimes the easiest way to work out if someone is ‘worth’ their contract is by looking out for the bad – both recognising the severity and the regularity of mistakes.
As I said earlier, toward the start of the season, Love struggled with interceptions. The way that I see it, there are two main causes for an interception: 1. Bad Read / Decision. 2. Bad Throw / Execution.
Both of these are rare for #10, but I would say that Love’s interceptions were usually more the latter than the former. Love’s decision making and processing is usually sound (which is much more difficult to coach and improve than an occasional errant pass). For the most part, if Love throws a bad pass it comes out of his confidence and aggressiveness – which I just listed as one of his strengths… It’s a double-edged sword.
Here, on third and long, Love decides to be aggressive and push the ball downfield, despite the Saints playing incredibly passive coverage even pre-snap. New Orleans drop into a Cover 3 with an incredibly deep middle-field safety, but Love doesn’t respect him enough and throws a balloon meant for Doubs on an out-and-up, that gives him ample time to flip his hips and track the ball.
I vividly remember Jordan Love’s worst interception of the season, as it came against the Raiders and I was watching it live on MNF. I couldn’t believe what I was seeing.
On the very first play of a drive, they dial up this quick split zone play fake, with a backside Slant-Bubble combination. This is the only time all year where I saw Love combine both of the two ways of throwing an interception I outlined above: an awful read and a bad pass. It feels like he had pre-determined the throw he wanted to make pre-snap, looking to hit the slant in behind the linebackers. But, when Robert Spillane sat right in the lane, he threw it anyway.
The camera angle from behind the quarterback is particularly damning.
Improvisation
After that brief negative, let’s get back to the positives, because there is definitely more good than bad in Love’s film.
An increasingly valuable commodity in the NFL recently, the ability to improvise and make plays off script, off-platform and outside of the pocket is one where Jordan Love impressed me. On multiple occasions last season his comfort and composure shone in collapsing pockets, as well as when he leaves it.
This play in particular was one of my absolute favourites when watching Love’s tape. This is the clip that Packers fans should have on hand to whip out any time somebody suggests that their $220m man isn’t worth it.
What a play.
As the pocket collapses on Love and Tampa Bay’s front comes closing in, he doesn’t panic. He steps up into the pocket and comes out the other side into acres of open grass. This is what you’d expect from any half-decent quarterback. But, the difference maker is what he does next. Does he scramble for 5-10 yards and either slide or perhaps get out of bounds? Of course not!
Love keeps his eyes downfield and identifies an opportunity to rip an absolutely beautiful throw to Jayden Reed as he toe-drags in the back corner of the end zone. Once again demonstrating his fantastic ball placement – even when throwing on the run, and off-script.
Final Thoughts: Is Jordan Love worth $220m?
When I watch the tape from Jordan Love’s 2023 season, I am impressed. The first half of the campaign was okay but not awe-inspiring, and mistakes weren’t uncommon, but those last two months of the season are what secured him the bag. And yes, I believe the bag is warranted, even with a small sample size.
Obviously, Jordan Love is not the best quarterback in the NFL, but as I mentioned earlier, the highest-paid QB is a different thing entirely. The paid-last = paid-most nature of the NFL is worth noting, but that simply means you have to sign your guy as soon as possible. The longer that you wait the more expensive he’ll be.
With that logic – by which you should pay him as soon as you’re confident that he’ll likely be worth it – I think that Green Bay have made the right decision. It may have taken some time, sitting behind Aaron Rodgers, but he’s here now. Jordan Love is a franchise quarterback, and he deserves to be paid as such.
Think about it this way. If they wanted to pay him later, they’d have paid him more. So, they saw him show elite potential, they got it done, and now he can focus on heading into the new campaign with nothing on his mind but competing at the highest level.
Combining quick, confident and decisive reads with impressive ball placement and composure when there are bodies everywhere and the pocket is collapsing, the 24-year-old redshirt took his first real opportunity with both hands and earned himself $220 million. These days, the only way to truly prove that you’re worth that huge contract is to show up and win games in January. Love already showed that he’s got what it takes with one playoff win under his belt.
I am very confident that it won’t be his last.
Tyler Arthur
NFL Film and Prospect Analyst
Tyler discovered American Football when he went to university and became obsessed with it. Since then he has played, watched and written about it, while on a mission to attain as much knowledge (and win as many fantasy football championships) as possible.
He currently plays Wide Receiver for the Northants Knights.
Tyler loves nothing more than watching the All-22 to break down the film and teach people about the sport he loves.