Fantasy Bounceback Candidates

By James Collier

One of the things that makes the NFL and, by extension, fantasy football so exciting is the unpredictability of it. Every year we see teams and players bounce back from poor seasons or unfortunate situations. At the team level, we’ve seen 18 teams go from “worst to first” in the last 20 years. And for players, we regularly see them come back from career threatening injuries and adversity  – see the “Comeback Player of the Year” award. 

It’s not uncommon to see players bounce back in fantasy football either. Last year we saw 12 players “bounce back” to finish in the top 12 at their position in fantasy points after dropping out of that bracket for at least one season. These are players that returned from injury or moved teams to find themselves in better situations and were once again among the fantasy football elite. If we are able to identify the players that are on course to bounce back in 2023 then there could be an opportunity to get elite production for a discount.

2022 Bouncebacks

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Before we look at candidates to bounce back this season, let’s refresh our memories of some of the names that managed it last year, along with how good of a job we (the fantasy community) did at predicting them. For reference, all ADP referenced is from FantasyPros and all ranks are based on PPR scoring from Week 1 to Week 17:

Player

Position

2021 Position Rank

2022 Position Rank

2022 Position ADP

Jared Goff

QB

25

10

27

Christian McCaffrey

RB

37

2

2

Derrick Henry

RB

17

4

4

Dalvin Cook

RB

14

10

6

Saquon Barkley

RB

32

5

11

Josh Jacobs

RB

13

3

20

AJ Brown

WR

33

5

11

Amari Cooper

WR

28

10

28

Tyler Lockett

WR

22

12

38

TJ Hockenson

TE

13

2

8

Tyler Higbee

TE

18

7

16

Evan Engram

TE

23

5

20

Of the 12 “bounceback players”, six were drafted inside the top 12 at their position. With two of the remaining six being at the most unpredictable position in the game, Tight End, this suggests we do a pretty good job of predicting which players who have had a poor season or two, are likely to bounce back to being elite options. 

It’s worth noting that in addition to doing a good job of predicting that these players would have good seasons, they still almost always outperformed their ADP. This suggests that if we can pick the right players to bounce back, we can get them at a discounted rate more often than not.

To identify this year’s candidates to bounce back we want to look at which formerly elite fantasy assets find themselves in better circumstances than they had last season. Have they recently recovered from injury or moved to a new team and are now in a better situation to succeed?

Elite Players: Obvious Bouncebacks

There are some players we can almost guarantee to not only return to the top 12 at their position, but top five. This year, Lamar Jackson and Cooper Kupp fall into that category. 

Not much needs to be said here, the fact that both have broken records for fantasy points at their position speaks for itself. Lamar had the best ever season for a Quarterback in 2019 and Kupp had the best for a Wide Receiver in 2021. Both have a realistic chance of finishing as the top scorer at their position again this year after missing multiple games through injury in 2022. 

From a team perspective though, things appear to be at opposite ends of the spectrum in 2023. For Lamar and the Ravens, everything is trending in the right direction. He has the best set of receivers he’s ever had and a new offensive coordinator that should allow him to air it out more (as he did in 2019). Meanwhile, it’s hard to see any improvement on the horizon for the Rams after a horrible Super Bowl defence. But that probably won’t even matter for Kupp who still averaged 24.8 games when healthy last year. 

Everyone knows that when healthy both of these guys should finish inside the top five at their position and so they are being drafted as the QB4 and WR3. But if things fall into place for them this season then those ranks could end up being closer to their floors than their ceilings.

High Risk, Elite Upside

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Next we have a couple of Wide Receivers, in Deebo Samuel and Calvin Ridley that present us with tantalising upside, but at significant risk. 

Calvin Ridley’s breakout came with a top five finish in 2020 while Samuel broke out a year later to finish as the WR3. They just happen to currently be being taken back to back as the WR16 and 17 in ADP at the moment. And while there’s no doubting the elite upside, the cost could be enough to put some off. 

In his WR3 season, Deebo was probably the most explosive player in the league. He led the league in yards per reception and yards per target but was also a significant contributor on the ground, scoring eight rushing touchdowns from 59 carries. While his usage didn’t change massively last year (8.5 touches per game down to 7.5), he wasn’t the same player and was nowhere near as efficient. If you believe the man himself when he says that he was distracted by his contract situation and was out of shape entering into the season then it’s easy to predict a bounceback in 2023. 

There are other question marks though – his average depth of target (ADOT) was an issue at just 4.3 yards, the lowest of any recognised Wide Receiver. Deebo is not a typical receiver but that is a significant drop from 8.4 in 2021. Is it the 2021 or 2022 figure that is the outlier? And can he continue to see significant volume given all of the competition for touches in the 49ers offense? 

Calvin Ridley hasn’t played football in almost two years and that’s enough information for some people to want to stay well clear of him this season. But in his last full season in the league he was the fantasy WR5 with 90 catches for 1,374 yards and nine touchdowns. He gets a move to the Jaguars to link up with the ascending Trevor Lawrence, and that’s enough to get the Ridley truthers excited. Lawrence made a significant leap forward in his second season in the league and should recognise that none of the other receivers at his disposal can do what Ridley can (just check the below tweet for proof). 

The talent is not a question with Ridley and he appears to be stepping into a near perfect situation with a talented young quarterback that currently has reliable but not elite options. But with no playing time since Week 7 in 2021, he feels like the ultimate boom/bust decision in this year’s drafts.

Low Risk, Safe Floor

Bounceback players don’t always have to come at a high risk and Najee Harris and Darren Waller are two players that should represent safe bets this year even if they are unlikely to significantly outperform their positional ADP.  

They have both been elite fantasy options in the past and have top three finishes at their positions on their CV’s. That sort of finish seems unlikely this time around but they both have safe floors and fantasy managers will be faced with the choice of their solid, reliable production or opting for the upside of a younger, unproven player. 

In his rookie season, Harris finished as the RB3 due to sheer volume (307 carries and 74 receptions). He dropped to the RB14 last year mainly thanks to a big drop in receptions (only 41). He’s not an efficient runner and is unlikely to have any true game winning weeks for your fantasy team but volume dictates that he will still finish around the RB10-12 mark, which is where he is currently being drafted (RB11 in ADP). It’s a question of guaranteeing yourself points or opting for a younger, sexier pick like Breece Hall or Jahmyr Gibbs (RB13 and 15 in ADP) that have top five upside but a much lower floor than Harris. 

Darren Waller struggled with injury in each of the last two seasons but prior to that had finishes as the TE2 and TE3 in 2020 and 2019. He has since been traded to a Giants team with about a million slot receivers all under six feet. If he can stay healthy he has every chance of leading the team in targets and touchdowns. His health and questionable passing volume in New York mean that it would take a lot for him to surpass his ADP as the TE5. As with Harris there is a younger, more exciting but riskier option in Kyle Pitts (TE6 in ADP) available at around the same stage in drafts as Waller.

Cheaper, Limited Upside

There are also some players being drafted significantly later in drafts that, if things fall right for, could creep into the top 12. James Conner is currently RB25 in ADP and David Montgomery is at RB31. 

Conner and Montgomery were RB2’s last season (Conner RB16 and Montgomery RB23), but have top eight finishes in their recent past. They are in very different situations this year with Conner seemingly in for a big workload on a bad offense and Montgomery the first in line for high value touches on one of the most prolific rushing teams from 2022.

Conner has been a solid NFL running back over the years, averaging 70 total yards per game and has always had an eye for the endzone. The conundrum for fantasy managers this year is can the implied level of volume be enough to sustain him on what will probably be one of the worst teams in the league. We assume Kyler Murray is going to miss a chunk of games at the start of the season and with a terrible defense, the Cardinals will be trailing most of the time. However this was also the case at the end of last season and in four games without Kyler Murray (including the game he threw just one pass), Conner averaged over 20 fantasy points. That’s an unrealistic expectation for this year but shows he can produce for our fantasy teams when given the volume. 

Montgomery has often been an unexciting fantasy option outside of his league winning stretch in 2020. But after a move to the Lions into a backfield alongside rookie Jahmyr Gibbs, he has slidden to RB31 in ADP – the lowest in his career. There’s every chance he takes on the role that saw Jamaal Williams score 17 touchdowns and finish as the RB15 last year so the ADP is a little surprising. It would obviously be unrealistic to expect that sort of touchdown production for Montgomery but he is a more talented back than Williams and should be more involved through the air. A top 12 finish does also feel like a bit of a reach but we’ve never seen Montgomery behind an offensive line as good as the Lions have and if Williams can finish as the RB15 on this offense, there’s every chance Montgomery can at least match that.

JAMES COLLIER

Lead Fantasy Football Analyst

A Washington fan since the early 2010’s, James had no choice but to turn to fantasy football in search of happiness – and it wasn’t long until it became an obsession. You can follow him on Twitter @jamesc294.

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