Divisional Deep Dive: AFC South

By Peter Mann

It’s been nearly a decade since the AFC South finished a regular season as tight as it is right now, that season saw the Houston Texans edging Tennessee Titans as both ended 9-7, whilst Indianapolis Colts were evens at 8-8.

The 2016 final standings would see the Jacksonville Jaguars bottom of the pile, with a 3-13 record; a lot has changed since then however, as this week’s Divisional Deep Dive shows, the Jags even going on to win two of the next eight divisional titles.

Liam Coen’s Jags could add a third title if they can maintain the top spot they presently hold, with five weeks still to play, but with them tied on 8-4 with Shane Steichen’s flailing Colts, and DeMeco Ryans’ Texans in third with a 7-5, the run-in here could be something else indeed.

And let’s not forget interim Head Coach, Mike McCoy’s Titans, back-to-back AFC South winners in 2020-2021, they may be 1-11 right now, but, and stranger things can, and have happened, any kind of winning finale would see them cause havoc in a number of franchises post-season hopes.

The AFC South still has a lot to play, as you’re about to find out…

Jacksonville Jaguars (1st, 8-4, defeated Tennesse Titans 25-3)

Now led by Liam Coen, in his first season as a Head Coach, the Jags have only won the South twice, in 2017 and 2022, and will be looking to better that this time around and make at least the Championship Game (lost to New England Patriots in ’17).

With quarterback Trevor Lawrence, running back Bhayshul Tuten, and a depth of wide receivers including Brian Thomas Jnr, pushing them on, the Jags laboured to a 4-3 start to the season which included wins over San Francisco 49ers (26-21) and Kansas City Chiefs (31-29) on successive weeks, but defeats have, in a way, proved costly.

Since their bye week though, in week eight, Coen’s side have roared back and posted a 4-1 record in their last five games, a pair of OT successes against Las Vegas Raiders (30-29) and Arizona Cardinals (27-24) were added to with big wins against Los Angeles Chargers (35-6) and this past weekend against Tennessee Titans (25-3).

Against the Titans, franchise quarterback, Lawrence, posted 16/27, 229yds, 2TDs (pass), connecting with Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange, whilst Tuten added 17yds, 1TD (rush_ for added measure.

It was a win that put them in pole position in the division, and moved the Jags up to third seed in the AFCs playoff picture heading into their final five, which, although in their own hands, they do have three divisional matchups, and the Broncos, to contend with.

Facing the Colts in their next outing is followed by perhaps their easiest game, when they host the New York Jets, after that it’s a pair of road games at the NFCs first seed, Denver Broncos, and the return with the Colts, before wrapping the regular season up with a home game against the Titans.

Indianapolis Colts (2nd, 8-4, Lost 16-20 to Houston Texans)

Nine-times divisional winners, Shane Steichen’s Colts have been looking for number ten for a decade now, their last title arriving in 2014 when they progressed to the AFC Championship game and losing to the New England Patriots.

This season promised so much early on, the Colts, led by quarterback Daniel Jones and the prowess of wide receivers Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jnr, and running back Jonathan Taylor, the latter having, on occasion, racked up scores for fun.

Winning seven of their first eight games, the Colts have slipped up badly of late, losing three of four, including this past weekend against the Houston Texans, and that despite shutting out CJ Stroud and seeing their own gunslinger post 14/27, 201yds, 2TDs (pass), he connecting with WR Alec Pierce, and TE Tyler Warren.

The Colts certainly impressed in the opening months of the regular season, but have since slipped to sixth seed in the AFC playoffs picture; early season successes against Miami Dolphins (33-8), Denver Broncos (29-28), as well as two divisional games against Tennessee Titans (41-20 and 38-14), looked to have set them up nicely.

An OT win against Atlanta Falcons was scant reward for a dismal November however, Steichen’s charges coming up short in losses to Pittsburgh Steelers (20-27), Kansas City Chiefs (20-23 OT), and the Texans this past Sunday.

Houston Texans (3rd, 7-5, Defeated Indianapolis Colts 20-16)

Winner of the last two, AFC South titles, the Texans would love a hat-trick, and a ninth overall, which would tie them with the Colts for most won; however, they’ve got some work to do to overhaul the division’s top two, in the closing weeks of the season.

DeMeco Ryans is in his third season at the helm of the Texans having previously been a linebacker for them in the late 2000s (2006-11), before a spell playing for Philadelphia Eagles. Since taking over from Lovie Smith, Ryans has, including this season, posted a 27-19 winning record in Houston.

Helped along the way by his quarterback, CJ Stroud, and a strong roster that includes running backs Nick Chubb and Woody Marks, wide receivers Nico Collins and Jayden Higgins, and the boot of Ka’imi Fairbairn, Houston has posed a problem in recent weeks.

Having started the season 3-5, Ryans and company have turned things round a little of late, winning four straight (five in their last six) and now sit 7-5 and with an outside shot of breaking into the postseason.

Their season has also seen them pick up big wins, seeing off Baltimore Ravens (44-10) and San Francisco 48ers (26-15), whilst their last four has seen them topple all three divisional rivals (Jaguars 36-29; Titans 16-13; Colts 20-16), and a huge, 23-19 success against Buffalo Bills.

That victory, in Indianapolis, has afforded the Texans faithful hope going into the home straight, and saw both Chubb 34yds, 1TD (rush), and Collins 7yds, 1TD (rush) notch rushing scores, and, although Stroud didn’t connect, he did post 22/35, 276yds.

With the division looking like it’ll be decided on the last day of the regular season, Ryans’ Texans do have a relatively tough run of games before the finale; on-the-road at Kansas City Chiefs in their next outing, the Texans then host Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders, before heading to the Los Angeles Chargers just after Christmas.

Their regular season close will see them welcome the Colts to the NRG Stadium in early January, a repeat of Sunday’s win will go a long way for the Texans.

Tennessee Titans (4th, 1-11, Lost 3-25 to Jacksonville Jaguars)

It’s been a poor, very poor season, in good ol’ Tennessee, the four-time divisional winners, back-to-back in 2020-2021, and finished second in 2022, have endured tough times in recent seasons – this’ll be their third straight wooden spoon, and their worst run in the AFC South.

Head Coach Mike McCoy is in the hot-seat on an interim basis having replaced Brian Callahan midway through the season; Callahan had started the season 1-5, and finished his tenure 4-19 overall, McCoy had a tough ask and is still to pick up his first win after losing six-in-a-row.

Three of McCoy’s six losses have been to division rivals, including Sunday’s dismal, 3-25 defeat at home to the Jaguars; there has been glimpses of what the Titans can do though, putting twenty past the Chargers (lost 20-27), and twenty-four against Seattle Seahawks (lost 24-30).

Against the Chargers the scores came courtesy of an LB Cody Barton interception for a 24yd return, and WR Chimere Dike returning a 33yd punt, along with PK Joey Slye’s boot coming good; the Seahawks game meanwhile would see quarterback Cam Ward put up 28/42, 256yds, 1TD (pass), 37yds, 1TD (rush), with Dike adding 44yds, 1TD (rec), and Slye kicking through 1/1FG, 22lng, 3/3PATs.

Now it’s time for the run-in, and the Titans’ five games will have ramifications across the league with results, either way, possibly affecting playoff hopes for the 49ERS, Chiefs, and Jaguars.

Beginning their final five with a pair of road games, at Cleveland Browns, then San Francisco 49ers, the Titans then welcome Kansas City Chiefs to the Nissan Stadium in what could well be a make-or-break game for Kansas. They then welcome New Orleans Saints just after Christmas, before a regular season dust-up to close things out, away to the Jaguars early in the New Year.

All To Play For

The AFC South certainly has quite a way to go still, despite their only being five games left to play of the regular season; all four franchises still have games to play against at least one divisional rival, with the top two set to play each other twice.

The Jags and the Colts oppose each other in their next outing, and again on the second last outing of the regular season, with the former wrapping up at home to the Titans, and the latter away to the Texans.

That final day is a repeat of the weekend just gone, and both Coen, and Steichen, will be hoping the play-off picture will be much clearer by then; the Texans have a relatively tough run-in with trips to both Kansas City (next) and San Diego to come, before hosting the Colts on the final day, and then there’s the Titans.

They may be well out of the play-off scenario but, as already mentioned, can still make themselves heard with franchises looking to make the post-season; of their remaining five games McCoy’s charges can still upset that of San Francisco 49ers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Jacksonville Jaguars.

Anything can happen, and all eyes could well be on the action in the AFC South come that early January, final round of regular season games.

PETER MANN

NFL ANALYST

PETER IS A LIFELONG SPORTS FAN, JOURNALIST AND AUTHOR BASED IN COUNTY DURHAM. HE HAS FOLLOWED THE NFL AND THE RAIDERS SINCE THE 1980s, AND LOVES BOTH SPORTS AND FAMILY HISTORY. PETER HAS A DEGREE IN SPORT & EXERCISE PSYCHOLOGY, AND CAN BE FOUND ON TWITTER @petermannwriter

 
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