2025 Conference Preview & Predictions: Conference USA
By Simon Carroll
A team by team analysis of Conferfence USA ahead of the 2025 season – with final standing predictions built using Pro Football Network’s CFB Playoff Predictor:
1. Liberty Flames: 10-2 (7-1)
Many thought that Liberty would struggle to maintain their impressive trajectory since joining the FBS when Hugh Freeze was poached by Auburn a couple of seasons ago. If anything, they have upgraded their head coach with the appointment of Jamey Chadwell. In his first season in charge, Chadwell led the flames to 13 wins, an undefeated conference schedule, and a spot in a New Years Bowl Game. A modest amount of regression was endured last season, but overall 21 wins in two campaigns is an excellent return – and Chadwell has his program ready to challenge for Conference-USA once again.
This prediction will be all the more impressive considering the Flames have lost starting quarterback Kaidon Salter to Colorado, star running back Quinton Cooley to the CFL, and three starting o-linemen too. Chadwell has done well recruiting replacements, bringing in QB Ethan Vasko who he recruited whilst at Coastal Carolina. Vasko was a solid performer for the Chanticleers last season, and you can imagine Chadwell turbocharging that production as he has with every signal caller he’s coached up.
Whilst the Flames are known for potent offense, their defense may be the strongest in the conference in 2025. Every starter is a senior with at least a full season of experience in DC Skylor Magee’s scheme in Lynchburg. A reasonable schedule overall does begin with a trip to Jax State in Week 2 – get past that speed bump early, and topping Conference-USA is there for the taking.
2. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: 8-4 (6-2)
Western Kentucky have quietly become a very solid, competitive program under Tyson Helton, who has taken the Hilltoppers to a bowl game each of the six years he’s been in charge. That’s also included two title game appearances – and no doubt he’ll be expecting another tilt at lifting the conference trophy again in 2025.
Key to Helton’s success has been raiding the FCS for talent – both coaches and players. Bringing the duo of Zach Kittley (OC) and quarterback Bailey Zappe to WKU in 2021 kickstarted this new era – and Helton hopes to do it again this year. This time it’s Abilene Christian who have been raided, with OC Rick Bowie coming in and bringing QB Maverick McIvor with him. McIvor has thrown for over 8,000 yards in his career, and the ‘Toppers are excited for what he can do. He has a breakout candidate in receiver KD Hutchinson to work with – this offense will likely be the best in the conference.
There’s a lot more upheaval on defense. WKU return just two starters on that side of the ball – not necessarily a bad thing considering run defense was this team’s kryptonite in 2024. 19 transfers come in, working with 1st year DC Da’Von Brown who has been promoted. He was DB coach the last two years, and that group will be the backbone of this unit. Western Kentucky have road trips at LA Tech and Jax State; the schedule could be nicer, but this is one of the more reliable and talented teams in the conference.
3. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: 8-4 (6-2)
It’s a make or break season for LA Tech coach Sonny Cumbie, whose first real head coaching job has been harder than he would have hoped. In three seasons in Ruston, Cumbie has amassed an 11-26 record, with the five wins in 2024 his best season to date. He’s probably got the hottest seat of any Conference-USA head coach this year – but the good news is, I expect a marked improvement for the Bulldogs.
A lot of that optimism stems from an offense ready to breakout. Quarterback Evan Bullock seized the starting job midway through last year, and delivered a 14:3 TD:INT ratio. Pretty impressive for a redshirt freshman, and he has the tools to improve that in 2025. Eli Finley might be the best tight end in the conference, and versatile backfield weapon Omiri Wiggins looked dynamic as a freshman and helps both the air and ground attacks.
Defense has been the Bulldogs’ achilles heel for some time, and they have yet another coordinator at the helm in 2025. Luke Olson has DC experience at both Tulsa and Jax State, where he won a championship last year. His Gamecock defense finished sixth in the league in points allowed per game (26.1) and fifth in yards allowed (393.0). His best assets are a pair of linebackers in Kolbe Fields and Sifa Leota, who look set to be a force this campaign. LA Tech have a competitive schedule, facing heavyweights Liberty & WKU at home. Win one or both of those, and they’ll be in a good spot to challenge for conference hardware.
4. Jacksonville State Gamecocks: 9-3 (6-2)
It’s been an offseason of change for Jacksonville State, with Rich Rodriguez heading back to West Virginia after delivering a conference title in only the Gamecocks’ second season in the FBS. Charles Kelly comes in to take the reins, a coach that has no experience in the big chair and has had a nomadic career, last as defensive coordinator for his alma mater Auburn. He does, however, have familiarity with this program, having held different roles with the team during the 90’s. Rich-Rod left big shoes to fill, and this is no splash hire – Kelly will need to hit the ground running to win over doubters.
Most are forecasting regression for Jax State, and it’s easy to see why; head coach leaving, all three coordinators also departing, and just four returning starters on the roster. But I’m not so pessimistic; this roster was deep last year, and there’s some good experience for the sophomores and juniors now stepping into leading roles. Offensively we may not have the explosion Rodriguez was famous for, but they’ll have one of the best rushing attacks in the conference led by Cam Cook, who comes over from TCU. They’ll be hoping transfer QB Cade Cunningham can help in that regard with his dual threat capabilities, although very little gametime at Memphis leaves more questions than answers.
There’s a big rebuild on defense, with the entire secondary replaced. Again, with new coaches and new players, it’s difficult to get a bead on where this unit is. But the schedule works for Jax State, who are formidable at home and welcome big dogs Liberty and WKU to AmFirst Stadium. There’ll be ups and downs, but the Gamecocks will still be challengers in Conference-USA.
5. UTEP Miners: 7-5 (5-3)
I’ve been high on UTEP becoming conference-relevant in 2025 all off-season. Head Coach Scotty Waldren has changed the atmosphere around the Miners program; despite a rocky start in his debut campaign, UTEP went 3-3 down the stretch last year. Waldren has recruiting pedigree and has lured some talent to West Texas from his former employers Austin Peay. Put it all together, and this team is making it to a bowl game this season.
Returning Quarterback Skyler Locklear struggled his first year at the FBS level despite the familiarity with Waldren’s offense. This campaign things should be a lot smoother, with fellow Austin Peay transfers Kenny Odom and Kam Thomas set to have breakout campaigns at receiver. He’ll also be working behind a much more experienced o-line, a group that was largely blamed for an underwhelming passing game in ‘24 but found their feet as the year went on. The Miners haven’t been afraid to add talent via the portal, and there should be serious improvement.
The crown jewel of UTEP’s defense is tackle KD Johnson. Stout against the run and offering excellent penetration into the backfield, he recorded 4 sacks from the interior in 2024. The Miners are also a team that’s proud of their Special Teams unit, with the aforementioned Kam Thomas one of the more dangerous returners in the conference and punter Noah Botsford coming over from Valdosta State where he was fought over in the transfer portal. Their tough games are at home, winnable ones on the road – Seven wins is very much attainable for this program.
6. Florida International Panthers: 6-6 (4-4)
A new era of football dawns in Westchester. Not only do the FIU Panthers have Pitbull – aka ‘Mr Worldwide’ – partnering with the team and his name adorning the stadium, they also have moved on from Mike MacIntyre as head coach. Willie Simmons, who knew nothing but winning at the FCS level at two different spots and spent 2024 at Duke coaching the running backs, takes over the mantle, and he’s not been shy about infusing the roster with fresh talent…
Thirteen transfers on offense, twelve on defense; it’s evident right off the bat that Simmons isn’t interested in treading water with a program that won four games last year. Some new names to watch out for on offense are tight end Dallas Payne (UAB) and wide receiver Alex Perry (Hawaii), but really the pillars of this unit are holdovers from the previous regime. Keyone Jenkins returns at quarterback and has more experience than most in this conference, whilst running back Kejon Owens will lead the ground game. The key to improvement lies on the o-line, where a lot of new faces come in. If they mesh well, there’s hope for a big improvement.
Defense is more settled despite the raft of additions, with coordinator Jovann Dewitt a holdover from the previous coaching staff. His unit performed strongly in 2024, and has half the starters returning; Florida A&M transfer Johnny Chaney, who has familiarity with his head coach, will be the heartbeat of the unit, the hard-hitting linebacker primed for the Mike role immediately. FIU will challenge for a bowl game this year, and feels like a program set to rise.
7. Delaware Fightin' Blue Hens: 5-7 (4-4)
Welcome to FBS football Delaware! The Blue Hens are one of two new programs to join Conference-USA ahead of the 2025 season. Head Coach Ryan Carty returns for his fourth year in charge having won 26 games his first three seasons. Delaware have been perennial FCS playoff participants during his tenure, giving them quiet confidence they won’t find the leap too daunting.
The bad news? This program has the toughest schedule of any teams in the conference in 2025. Quite the introduction for a school that has only a handful of starters returning. But this is a team that prides itself on coaching up talent, and will not drop their expectations based on lack of experience. Quarterback is a question mark; Zach Marker returns after just four starts in 2024 before being sidelined with injury. He’ll battle it out with UCF transfer Riley Trujillo for QB1. Again, the weapons he has to work with are largely unknown, but expect a prominent role for former Michigan receiver Jake Thaw, who was the Wolverines’ punt returner in 2022 & 2023.
Defense is where Delaware wins football games. They’ve had the same coordinator (Manny Rojas) for six years and have routinely been one of the stingiest units in the FCS during that time. Their secondary looks to be their strongest aspect, with A’Khoury Lyde and Nate Evans representing two shutdown corners and more talent added through the portal. It remains to be seen how they fare against tougher competition on a weekly basis, but the Blue Hens won’t be daunted by this level.
8. New Mexico State Aggies: 5-7 (3-5)
When you think of winning football programs, New Mexico State might not be top of your list. But all that changed when Jerry Kill took over in 2022. With Diego Pavia at quarterback, Kill led the Aggies to 17 wins in two seasons – that’s as many as they managed in the six previous years combined. Unfortunately, Kill stepped away largely due to ill health, and NMST promoted Tony Sanchez to head coach and they reverted back to type, going 3-9 in 2024.
Las Cruces is a hard place to win, despite Coach Kill catching lightning in a bottle. Sanchez will hope to improve on last year’s record, but expecting a dramatic swing is unrealistic. Having said that, there’s excitement at quarterback, with Logan Fife coming in from Montana. Fife is a pocket passer with the legs to get out of trouble, and may remind Aggies fans of the Pavia years if he hits his peak. He’ll have speed merchant Tyler King to work with at receiver, who is looking for a forever home after short unproductive stints at Texas Tech and Wyoming.
NMST’s defense last year was as close to pitiful as you can think of, allowing almost 500 yards and 36 points per game. Somehow coordinator Joe Morris returns, but the unit as a whole will look a lot different. Just four starters return, most notably captain linebacker Tyler Martinez who had 96 tackles in 2024. He’s ‘re’joined by edge rusher Gabe Peterson, who played for the Aggies for two years before spending last campaign at Utah State. This is a brutal schedule that includes road trips to LA Tech, Liberty, WKU and Tennessee, which likely makes a bowl game out of reach for New Mexico State in 2024.
9. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders: 4-8 (3-5)
Moving on from a longtime head coach is never easy. And so it turned out for MTSU, who fired Rick Stockstill midway through his eighteenth season in charge. Former Vanderbilt HC Derek Mason was appointed last season, and in an era where coaching change equals players transferring predictably struggled his first year in charge. Three unconvincing wins shows where the Blue Raiders currently sit, and whilst there should be improvement in year 2, expectations should be tempered.
That’s not to say there’s zero reason for optimism. Middle Tennessee returns fifteen starters and have attacked the portal for upgrades, particularly on offense. Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato returns for his fifth season in Murfreesboro, having surpassed 3,000 yards his previous two campaigns. He’ll be working behind a totally rebuilt offensive line, something very much needed after their porous nature in 2024. In short, experience alone on this unit would dictate that they surpass the measly 18.1 points per game they managed last year.
Defense is Mason’s forte, and Middle Tennessee are expected to be strong in this department. Things started off rocky last season before they managed something of a turnaround – with quarterback Xavier Williams switching to defensive back halfway through the year and somehow finishing with the most tackles on the team (77). Names to watch out for that could challenge for conference honors are safety John Howse, linebacker Alex Mitchell and nose tackle Shakai Woods.
PFSN’s simulator, by its very nature, is unkind in places – and I think this is one of those moments. With both FBS newbies on their slate I expect MTSU to surpass four wins, but a bowl game may just be out of reach.
10. Sam Houston State Bearkats: 3-9 (3-5)
The job KC Keeler did in Huntsville really isn’t talked about enough. Sam Houston State’s longtime head coach presided over the Bearkats’ step up to the FBS – and after finding his feet in year one, casually reeled off 10 wins in 2024. This program missed out on the conference title game on a tiebreaker, incredible when you consider their relatively recent induction to Conference-USA. Unfortunately for Sam Houston State, Keeler has moved on this offseason, heading to Philadelphia as Temple’s new head coach.
Phil Longo comes in as the new head coach. The respected offensive coordinator struggled to make the change hoped for in Wisconsin, but has history in creating explosive offenses at multiple stops. He hasn’t, however, been a HC in twenty years, his only experience in the top job a two year stint at La Salle, where he had a 7-14 record. With just seven returning starters, 2025 could be a tough re-introduction to the big chair.
Whilst Longo is renowned for his passing game, Sam Houston State will be a run heavy team in 2024. They have one of the best o-lines in the conference, and running back Elijah Green comes in after averaging 6.9 yards per limited carry in Indiana. Green played under Longo at North Carolina, and will be familiar with his system. Defense is a huge concern for the Bearkats, with zero starters returning. With seven road games on the schedule I anticipate a significant regression in 2025 – this is a year for setting the foundations under a new regime for the first time in over a decade.
11. Kennesaw State Owls: 2-10 (1-7)
Some schools make the leap from FCS to FBS look easy. Kennesaw State was not one of them; 2024 was a real struggle for the Owls, who lost their opening six games and finished the season with just two wins. Longtime head coach Brian Bohannon paid the price, shockingly dismissed after 9 games despite a 72-36 record and three conference titles on his resume. The administration were evidently unwilling to wait for results at the new level, despite Bohannon somehow upsetting conference favourites Liberty in October.
Jerry Mack comes in to take over the reins. Mack has some head coaching experience, with an impressive 31-15 record at North Carolina Central. But for the past seven years he’s bounced around as a position coach, most recently running backs coach for the Jacksonville Jaguars in the NFL.
The Owls have not wasted time revamping a roster that struggled amongst tougher competition. SIXTY TWO transfers head to Kennesaw, including quarterback Dexter Williams who has modest game experience at Indiana and Georgia Southern. With so much change it’s hard to see where this roster has an edge – perhaps the secondary will be the standout unit on this team, with starting corners JeRico Washington and Tyler Hallum returning. The schedule is a bitch and Mack has a starting point as low as you could get – having a home game against newcomers Missouri State is their best hope of a conference win.
12. Missouri State Bears: 1-11 (0-8)
Welcome to the FBS Missouri State! The Bears have been perennial challengers at the FCS level, with coach Ryan Beard bringing a growing reputation to his new conference. The program has been itching to grow for some time, and Springfield is a city prepared to offer support and resources for a football team they can be proud of. That said, it will be a hell of a learning curve for this school to be competitive in year one in Conference-USA.
One position they won’t be worried about is quarterback. Longtime starter Jacob Clark returns for his senior year after posting 3,600 yards and 26 touchdowns in 2024. He has some weapons to work with, primarily receiver Jmariyae Robinson, whilst picking up running back Shomari Lawrence who has experience in this conference with FIU was a savvy move. This has been a deliberate roster rebuild from Beard and his coaches rather than the wholesale change approach other programs have attempted. That should help with continuity, with the acknowledgement that year one at this level will likely get ugly.
It’s a similar scenario on defense, with half the team moving on. One huge, devastating loss to this unit was the passing away of captain Todric McGee, the safety a victim of an accidental self-inflicted shooting this past April. Third-year defensive coordinator LD Scott has a heck of a job on his hands keeping this group competitive. Missouri State embraces a nasty schedule their first year at this level, and with a lot of unknowns it’s difficult to predict many if any wins in 2025.
SIMON CARROLL
LEAD WRITER/HEAD OF CONTENT
PREVIOUSLY THE FOUNDER OF NFL DRAFT UK, SIMON HAS BEEN COVERING COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND THE NFL DRAFT SINCE 2009. BASED IN MANCHESTER, SIMON IS ALSO CO-CREATOR & WEEKLY GUEST OF THE COLLAPSING POCKET PODCAST AND COVERS THE JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS FOR SB NATION.