conference preview 2021: Sun Belt
By Simon Carroll
A team-by-team analysis of the Sun Belt, the season ahead and final standings predictions.
EAST
1. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
So, er, who saw THAT coming? In just his second full year as head coach, Jamey Chadwell led the Chants to an 11-1 record, undefeated in the Sun Belt (and a share of the title) and finished ranked #14 in the AP. All of this whilst battling through a COVID nightmare where games would be cancelled and scheduled with three days notice. Quite simply, Coastal Carolina balled out.
Don’t expect 2020 to be a flash in the pan though; this program brings back almost all of it’s talent on both sides of the ball outside of Tarron Jackson and CJ Marable. The offense is led by Grayson McCall, who might be the best QB from the Group of 5 and – behind an experienced o-line – is expected to tear up the Sun Belt once again.
The only doubt about the Chanticleers’ defense is the loss of production when Tarron Jackson went to the NFL. He was close to double-digit sacks last year, and if Coastal can replace that pass rush then this unit will rank among the best in the conference once again. They brought in Emmanuel Johnson from Georgia Tech to do just that, but with next to no playing time in Atlanta what he gives this program is unknown.
The big game for Coastal comes on October 20th in Boone. If they can win at App State, the East is theirs to lose. We should see an entertaining game against Buffalo from the MAC, and maybe a victory over a Power 5 team in Kansas early on the schedule. After their antics last year, this team and their teal field will get plenty of screen time to watch them dominate again. Would an undefeated season get them any attention from the playoff committee?
Prediction: 12-0, Division Winners, Sun Belt Champions
2. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Coastal Carolina might be top of the tree in the East, but App State isn’t far behind. Head Coach Shawn Clark has picked up the mantle from his predecessors Scott Sattefield & Eli Drinkwitz and continued the impressive run of winning seasons in Boone; since 2015 The Mountaineers have averaged 10.5 wins a season, and won ALL of it’s six bowl games.
You can pencil in another double digit winning season if all goes to plan in 2021; former Duke & Clemson QB Chase Brice comes over to likely lead the offense, and despite a tough season with the Blue Devils last year has a stellar surrounding cast to lean on. Jalen Virgil and Thomas Hennigan are two lethal outside threats, whilst Camerun Peoples will look to match his 1,124 yards, 6.7 ypc and 12 TD’s from last year out of the backfield.
App State brings back most of a defense that compares to any in the Sun Belt. Their secondary sees some turnover, most notably the departure of do-it-all corner Shemar Jean-Charles who was drafted by The Packers. Madison Cone (Wisconsin), Stuart Head (Stanford) and Donte Small (Morgan State) come in to bolster the ranks. This unit boats excellent depth at almost every position, with Demetrius Taylor primed to light up the stats columns off the edge.
The one thing separating the Chants with the Mountaineers is the strength of schedule; App State have a tough test at Miami whilst also have to travel to Louisiana to play the Ragin’ Cajuns. If they can shut down Coastal in front of their own fans, they’ll have the inside track on the East and a spot in the title game.
Prediction: 10-2
3. Georgia Southern Eagles
Momentum is slowly beginning to build in Statesboro. In his three years at the helm, head coach Chad Lundsford has three winning seasons and three bowl wins. The Sun Belt – particularly the East – has a handful of teams that can challenge for an AP ranking come the season’s end. And whilst The Panthers probably aren’t one of them, they are one of those teams who can play spoiler and torpedo the chances of others.
Georgia Southern runs a unique ‘Pistol Option’ offense, with a plethora of running backs in a dynamic backfield that require full attention from a defense, in turn allowing the air game to take timely shots downfield. Shai Werts’ departure leaves a gaping hole at quarterback, and it’s yet to be determined whether junior Justin Tomlin, redshirt freshman Sam Kennerson or Georgia Tech transfer or James Graham will get the nod. Whoever comes in will lean on that run game – in particular JD King – to ease their transition into the starting role.
A playmaking defense in 2020 has seen some roster turnover, and the linebacking corps in particular has holes to fill. Jon Ferguson looks to pick up the Mike role, but Lundsford hasn’t been shy in adding competition, bringing in three transfers. There’ll be a natural dropoff for this unit but the secondary should still be potent, with big years expected from both Justin Birdsong and Derrick Canteen.
The conference schedule gives them testing tilts against the three big teams in the conference (App State, Coastal Carolina, Louisiana), but as mentioned they won’t be intimidated by anyone. An intriguing trip to Fayetteville to face Arkansas in September throws a splash of glamour to the slate, but Eagles fans will likely take another winning record and bragging rights with a victory in the ‘Modern Day Hate’ game with Georgia State.
Prediction: 8-4
4. Georgia State Panthers
Shawn Elliott reuters for his fourth season at the helm at Center Parc Stadium. WIth a strong ending to a tough 2020 season, The Panthers are another program in the Sun Belt that will have ambitions of a winning record, and maybe more.
From a talent perspective, Georgia State and their in-state rivals Georgia Southern are remarkably similar. An advantage that The Panthers have over The Eagles is undoubtedly an established quarterback: Cornelious Brown accounted for more than 2,500 yards from scrimmage in 2020 and is expected to take a further step in 2021. His cause will be helped as the core of the weapons on offense return; wideouts Cornelius McCoy and and Sam Pinckney reeled in 12 TD’s between them last year. They will occupy the X & Z roles whilst gadget receiver Terrance Dixon will have an increased role from the backfield and slot.
The pass defense was a weakness last season, with the Panthers giving up big plays, and more troubling, key plays. They were much better up front but lost pass rushers Jordan Strachan and Trajan Stephens-McQueen – DC Nate Fuqua will hope for big things from junior transfer Shamar McCollum to replace them, who flashed in limited gametime at Wake Forest the last couple of years.
The Panthers have lined up a couple of big fish on their slate this year, and whilst a spanking at North Carolina is likely, they might spring a shock Auburn on the road in late September. Elliott will probably struggle to better the seven regular season wins his program achieved in 2020, but anything better than a .500 record and a bowl game would be more than acceptable.
Prediction: 7-5
5. Troy Trojans
The East is stacked with programs that will be hoping for winning records and a shot at a bowl game, and Troy is no different. After just falling short of postseason play in 2020, Chip Lindsey has some very definable talents on this roster he can hang his hat on to allow the program to take the next step in 2021.
The Trojans moved on from offensive coordinator Ryan Pugh and installed the highly experienced Luke Meadows to take the reins. He may detour from the traditional spread scheme to a more run heavy playbook as Troy look to take advantage of their dominant o-line and deep running back room. Senior BJ Smith struggled in 2020 and will likely cede carries to a dynamic pair of freshmen in Kimani Vidal and Jamontez Woods. Gunnar Watson is tipped to hold off Mizzou transfer Taylor Powell after a promising 2020 campaign under center.
Troy got much better on defense last season but Lindsey is far from resting on his laurels, bringing in six bodies via the transfer portal this offseason. Former NC State corner Taiyon Palmer is one the Trojan coaches are high on and hope he can challenge Flether O’shai to replace Terence Dunlap, who oddly followed former OC Pugh to Southern. Meanwhile, linebacker Carlton Martial has NFL written all over him.
Pugh and Dunlap return to Veterans Memorial Stadium as Troy opens at home to Southern, but things get a lot tougher from that point on. Non-conference matchups against Liberty and South Carolina look daunting, and they also draw Louisiana from the West. That being said, the Trojans have enough about them to hit .500. In this crazy competitive division, a record like that may still see them prop up the standings.
Prediction: 6-6
WEST
1. Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Louisiana are comfortably the team to beat in the Sun Belt West this year. Billy Napier backed up an impressive 2019 with an even better 2020, taking the Ragin’ Cajuns (top three CFB nickname FYI) to a 10-1 record, which included a shock dismantling of Iowa State and a final national ranking of #15, the first time the program has been ranked by the AP since 1943. Just a three point loss to Coastal marred an almost perfect season, a result they were unable to avenge after the championship game was called off due to the pandemic. Can Napier go one step further in 2021?
It won’t be easy. Louisiana have scheduled some tricky out of conference tilts, travelling to Austin to face Texas in the season opener, facing a tricky Ohio program at home, and on the road to Liberty in late November. App State also sit on their conference slate, albeit at home and after a bye week. The road is just as tough as last year – if not tougher – but they have every right to be confident in their roster…
Offensively The Cajuns bring back almost every starter from last year, with just the running back tandem of Elijah Mitchell (49ers) and Trey Ragas (Raiders) needing replacing. They picked up former Texas A&M back Jacob Kibodi, who flashed at College Station – he’ll compete for snaps with Sophomore Chris Smith. Getting QB Levi Lewis back for his (second) senior year – behind a stout o-line – means their run game will be well placed to develop on the fly.
Defensively, Louisiana had some issues stopping the run last year, particularly on short yardage, third down situations. But again, almost all the starters return for 2021, and in a weak division they will absolutely be one of the better units in the Sun Belt. Despite the testing schedule, this roster has more than enough to get to the title game and give Napier that elusive championship.
Prediction: 9-3, Division Winners
2. Arkansas State Red Wolves
Realistically, the only team likely to challenge Louisiana for dominance in the West is Arkansas State. A 4-7 record in 2020 was disappointing but didn’t tarnish the legacy of Blake Anderson, who had six winning seasons prior to that and left for Utah State this offseason. He’s replaced by Butch Jones, another big name hire for the Red Wolves. A bounce back to a winning record isn’t completely out of this programs’ reach if Jones can replicate what some of his fellow prestigious predecessors (Hugh Freeze, Gus Malzahn, Bryan Harsin) achieved in Jonesboro.
Jones walks into a great situation on offense. Layne Hatcher comes back for a third year; with 5,000 passing yards and 46 TD’s in two years at Centennial Bank Stadium (just 12 picks!) Hatcher is up there with Grayson McCall in terms of talent and experience. This unit projects to be just as explosive this year, particularly if Dahu Green realises the potential they saw in him at Oklahoma and takes another big step in 2021.
Defensively, things are a lot more dicey for the Red Wolves. One of the worst units in the Sun Belt last year, and a key reason for their losing season, they simply floundered against the pass. Defensive coordinator David Duggan was fired midseason, and Jones brought in former Pitt LB coach Rob Harley to take the reins as one of his first hires. Harley gets eight starters returning and an influx of talent via the transfer portal to help him get this defense competitive; former Vols duo Kivon Bennett and John Mincey are expected to come in and contribute immediately, providing a pass rush that was non-existent in 2020.
Jones’ reputation took a hammering in Tennessee, but if he can get The Red Wolves back to a winning record at the first attempt he’ll have a lot more sympathy for the tough job he had to fight through in Knoxville. Lining up Memphis, Washington and Tulsa consecutively on the schedule won’t help, nor will one of the tougher conference slates. He’ll need a shock win or two and no slip ups against the inferior programs in the West to achieve that target. Probably too much of an ask.
Prediction: 6-6
3. Texas State Bobcats
Predicting The Bobcats finish third in the West after a 2-10 record in 2020 tells you everything you need to know about the lack of competitiveness in this half of the Sun Belt. Jake Spavital has struggled in San Marcos since his hiring, but maybe – just maybe – there were some positives to be taken from a difficult season last year.
Firstly, this team competes for their coach; four of the ten defeats last year were by one score or less, they competed gamely against the better teams in the conference, and didn’t quit when getting pummelled by the likes of BYU and Coastal Carolina. The offense improved from a year before, and should do so again, particularly with an influx of talent on the o-line. Four transfers came in, with staff particularly excited about former Pitt tackle Liam Dick. If he gets immediate eligibility, then quarterback Brady McBride should have a lot more time in the pocket to hit standout receiver Marcell Barbee, who might be the biggest weapon in the conference.
The sheer amount of points conceded tells its own story about the defense last year – eight of their twelve games in 2020 saw The Bobcats ship 37 points or more. Again, they have been eager to bolster via the transfer portal, but it feels a lot like State are throwing a lot of mud and seeing what sticks in a desperate attempt to improve. If things don’t get better things could get tense between Jake Spavital and his brother Zac, who serves as the defensive coordinator.
If Texas State can escape non-conference play (Baylor, at FIU, Incarnate Word, Eastern Michigan) with a .500 record they’ll be delighted, because the conference provides maybe two wins at the most. There is a feeling that the current regime have got this program trending in the right direction, but there’s some way to go before it translates over to the win column.
Prediction: 4-8
4. South Alabama Jaguars
The Steve Campbell era in Mobile is over. After a promising career at the FCS level, Campbell struggled mightily with the Jaguars; the four wins last year being the most recorded in his three year stint at Ladd-Peebles Stadium. South Alabama bring in a familiar face to take the reins in Kane Wommack, who held the defensive coordinator job there for a couple of years before impressing in Indiana. A first-time head coach, Wommack will be gearing up for tough opening year…
The Jags were feeble in the trenches on both sides of the football in 2020. Wommack will be confident he can get immediate improvement up front on defense, but it’s more needed on offense if this program is to improve. They have a new starting quarterback in Jake Bentley, who lands on his third roster after stints at South Carolina and Utah. Bentley had two excellent years with the Gamecocks in 2017 and 2018, and South Alabama will be excited to see what he can do with two electric receivers in the ‘Jalen Brothers’, Tolbert and Wayne.
Without improvement up front the passing game won’t have time to get these guys the ball. Much like Texas State, South Alabama have brought in a load of transfers to help the cause, but will Justin Stevens (Michigan State) and Antawn Lewis (LA Tech) be enough? Defensively, The Jags will be excited about landing safety Atanza Vongor, who saw injury disrupt the 4* recruits’ career at TCU. But again, these are baby steps, and expectations will be very much tempered for this program in 2021.
The schedule provides very little in the way of winnable contests, with just Alcorn State and ULM that can be confidently pencilled in as successes. A long term project awaits Wommack upon his return to South Alabama.
Prediction: 2-10
5. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
With the big coaching names that ULM are assembling for 2021, anyone would be forgiven for thinking they’re challenging for the Sun Belt title. But that couldn’t be further from the case; after a so-so career in Monroe, Matt Viator bottomed out with a winless season last year and was quickly shown the door. They broke out the cheque book to bring in Terry Bowden as the new head coach, whose pulling power has extended to the coordinator positions, hiring Rich Rodriguez on offense and the much hyped Zac Alley on defense.
It won’t matter, at least for 2021 anyway. This roster was left bereft of talent as Viator’s inability to recruit competitively in-state has slowly taken its toll. Rodriguez brings his son Rhett over from Arizona at quarterback, and he’ll jump straight to the top of the depth chart – a shocking indictment of the talent at the position considering he’s thrown just seven passes in the last two years.
Alley, in his first role as a defensive coordinator, must be wincing when looking at the tape from 2020. Most points conceded in the Sun Belt, most rushing yards conceded in the Sun Belt, and susceptible to big plays through the air. It’s hard to find a ray of light on this side of the ball, but hopefully the high energy levels of the new DC can light a fire under some of these guys – this unit does have plenty of experience at the very least.
If Deion Sanders’ Jackson State rolls into Malone Stadium and turns over the Warhawks, then another winless season is likely. But the statement this program made when bringing in Bowden, Rodriguez et al is clear; they’re not content to be the whipping boys of the Sun Belt. This time next year will give us a much better picture of where ULM are headed.
Prediction: 1-11
