Conference Preview 2021: Mountain West
By Simon Carroll
A team-by-team analysis of the Mountain West, the season ahead and final standings predictions.
MOUNTAIN
1. Boise State Broncos
Another year, another MWC title game for The Broncos. Under Bryan Harsin, Boise have been in the conference championship game six out of seven seasons, won it three times, and lost just eight Mountain West games. With Harsin moving on to Auburn in the offseason, AD Jeramiah Dickey brought Andy Avalos home to Albertsons Stadium; Avalos played linebacker on the blue turf back in the day, and was a coach under Harsin before impressing as defensive coordinator at Oregon the last two years. He enters a good situation but with high expectations for a team used to winning.
Boise returns 17 starters this year, which bodes well for another tilt at the MWC title. Quarterback Hank Bachmeier enters his third year as QB1, and when he wasn’t injured looked like he’d taken the next step in 2020. Based on that he should be able to hold off the challenge of Jack Sears, who transfers in from USC. Bachmeier’s connection with Khalil Shakir, Boise’s standout receiver, should remain even though they’re learning a new offensive scheme under first year OC Tim Plough. They have a solid ground attack led by George Halani, and a dominant o-line. This unit was good last year, and provided they hit the ground running under the new coaching staff, should maintain that level of performance in 2021.
Defensively there is work to do, and a big reason why they went for Avalos as HC. His priority will be shoring up the pass defense, as they were susceptible to big plays last season. His job will be made a little harder with the loss of Jalen Walker and Avery Williams, the teams’ two starting corners who both made the All-Mountain West team in 2020. But swinging for Bowling Green’s playmaking Caleb Biggers via the transfer portal is a good start. Up front they have some experience they sorely lacked 12 months ago, and Riley Whimpey leads a linebacker group that is the strength of this unit.
Boise will be the team to beat in the Mountain division, and aside from a tasty trip to San Diego State to end the season they have a favourable home to road balance; they get Air Force, Wyoming and Nevada all at Albertsons Stadium. They’ve scheduled a couple of tough non-conference games, opening at UCF and hosting Oklahoma State, so a slow start is a possibility. But when all is said and done, if The Broncos aren’t in the MWC Championship Game then Avalos will consider year one a disappointment.
Prediction: 9-3, Division Winners
2. Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming is in good shape heading into 2021. Ignore that 2-4 record last year; this program lost three of those games by one score and had positive differentials in every stat category you can think of, has 21 starters returning to the team, and the two-deep boasts stacks of talent on both sides of the ball. Craig Bohl enters his eighth season at Laramie, and despite a very competitive division hopes are high he can finally get a Mountain West championship in the trophy cabinet after coming so close in 2016.
New offensive coordinator Tim Polasek comes over from Iowa where he was offensive line coach for the last four seasons. It remains to be seen what scheme he brings with him, but he’d be stupid to get away from the run game – The Cowboys probably have the best offensive line AND running back committee in the Mountain West. Xazavian Valladay leads the backfield, but with former Louisville transfer Trey Smith returning for what seems like his seventeenth senior year and Dawaiian McNeeley an exciting freshman, they’re spoilt for choice. Quarterback Sean Chambers is also devastating when he tucks and runs, and despite a wayward arm his biggest challenge in 2021 will be staying on the field after playing just 13 games in three seasons.
The defense at War Memorial Stadium is downright nasty, a feature of Bohl’s tenure at Wyoming. Every year they are dominant against the run – the penultimate game against New Mexico State saw them allow a 100 yard rusher for the first time in eighteen games. That level likely won’t drop off in 2021 with standout players in the front seven including Chad Muma and Solomon Byrd, who opted out in 2020. CJ Coldon will be tasked with leading the secondary, possibly the weakest aspect of this unit but by no means a liability.
So. If Wyoming is this good, why aren’t they favourites for the Mountain division? Purely the schedule – they face three out for heavyweights in the conference, and all on the road (Air Force, Boise State, San Jose State). A cupcake non-conference schedule leaves a lack of trap games elsewhere, and purely on a season record basis The Cowboys might be one of the most improved programs in the nation. Despite that, Bohl may still need to wait a little longer for that elusive MWC Trophy.
Prediction: 9-3
3. Air Force Falcons
Put your hand up if you know what a ‘Turn Back’ is. Nobody? Okay. For student athletes at service academies, redshirting isn’t an option, as they are really only supposed to stay at West Point, Annapolis or Colorado Springs for four years before joining the Army, Navy or Air Force. However, if a student is forced to miss most of an academic year due to illness or – in the case of football players – injury, then they can be ‘turned back’ by the academy, sending them home and enrolling them in the following year’s classes instead.
COVID being COVID, Air Force had a ton of players leave the program last year, part of the reason why The Falcons went 3-3 in Troy Calhoun’s 14th season in charge, a dropoff from the 11-2 recorded in 2019. What that means is most of those turn backs return this year – thirteen in total to be precise – giving Air Force a deep roster much more in the mould of the one two years ago rather than 2020. All this is to say, the Zoomies will be a tough team to beat this season.
The defense is the standout unit of this football program; 4th year DC John Rudzinski has nine returning starters plus four turnbacks at his disposal, and it’s without doubt the most talented roster he’s had to work with. Despite finishing 3-3 in 2020 this team held opponents to 15 points a game, and with names such as Demonte Meeks (LB), Milton Bugg (CB) and Jordan Jackson (edge) that dominance should continue.
There are a lot more questions on offense. Haaziq Daniels is the starting quarterback, or certainly was last year. He got better as the season went on and should hold off Warren Bryan and Ben Brittain. The Falcons have a distinct lack of star playmakers, but tight end Kyle Patterson showed signs that 2021 might be a breakout year. A shallow backfield led by Brad Roberts and Jorden Gidrey isn’t woeful, but doesn’t move the needle. Offensive coordinator Mike Theissen returns for his 8th season (15th on the coaching staff) and his experience should at least have this unit at a level where it can give their defense a shout.
Their conference schedule is tough, certainly tougher than Boise’s; they pull Nevada and San Diego State from the West division, host Wyoming who come off a bye, and play the Broncos on the blue turf. They get a nice bye week before playing Army in Arlington which will be welcomed, but if they want to push for the division title they’ll have to do it the hard way.
Prediction: 8-4
4. New Mexico Lobos
When New Mexico hired Danny Gonzalez, they might have found a coach for life; born and raised minutes from University Stadium in Alberquerque, Gonzalez played as a Punter and Safety for the Lobos, and began his coaching career as a grad assistant, before later coaching the secondary and special teams. After spells honing his craft and raising his profile at San Diego State and Arizona State, he returned to his Alma Mater for 2020.
After some success under Bob Davie, this program won a total of eight games the three seasons prior, and it was no surprise Gonzalez struggled last year. But i’m here to tell you to throw that 2-5 win-loss record out the window; for one thing, that halved the amount of losses from the previous year. Then look at the results; two of those losses were by one score or less, and they were pretty tough MWC games too, with Nevada, champions San Jose State and a trip to Hawaii on the schedule. To win their final two – one against Wyoming – was a clear sign that this team was better than their record, and the players were buying into the new regime.
What’s more impressive is that those two wins came behind the arm of 5th string walk on freshman QB Isaiah Chavez. This year Terry Wilson transfers in from Kentucky, and was named starter earlier this month, but Chavez will be an interesting story if he gets on the field again. Excitement from the coaching staff spreads to their running back duo of Bobby Cole and Aaron Dumas, but aside from maybe Cjay Boone who comes in from Missouri, this unit is light on talent everywhere else. Defensively things look better under Rocky Long, who is also a former player and head coach for the Lobos and is Gonzalez’ mentor. Standout members of their 3-3-5 scheme include safety Jerrick Reed and linebacker Devin Sanders.
Nobody said this job was going to be easy, and in 2021 The Lobos have daunting conference trips to both Boise State and San Diego State. They also pack their bags for College Station to take on Texas A&M. But outside of that, the schedule is manageable. There are five winnable home games on their slate, and maybe even one or two on the road too. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see this program get a bowl game, even if the rest of the college football world would be.
Prediction: 6-6
5. Colorado State Rams
Did you know that Steve Adazzio has not had a season off from coaching since he began his career on the sidelines back in 1985? Last year Adazzio embarked upon his third head coaching role at the FBS level, being appointed by Colorado State just ten days after his firing by Boston College – this is a guy who doesn’t like being unemployed. A 1-3 season where COVID denied Adazzio the opportunity to work with his roster in the offseason and halved the schedule due to contact tracing means little, and there isn’t much to analyse to understand where this program currently stands and what direction it is trending. With Adazzio’s career record being 58-58 and always hovering around the .500 mark, let’s assume that’s the benchmark for The Rams in 2021.
Adazzio quickly dispensed of OC Joey Lynch after just one year, bringing in to replace him. The former Wisconsin QB coach is blessed with a talented unit at every position except quarterback, and he will be tasked with getting a lot more than just one touchdown out of presumed starter Todd Centeio, his sole strike last year coming against Boise in garbage time. With an offseason to learn the offense and star receiver Dante Wright to lean on, he should be much better. They also bring in transfer David Bailey at running back to stimulate the ground game, the former Eagle following Adazzio over from Boston College. In their three losses last year CSU scored an average of 18.3 points – improvement is needed.
A big reason for Colorado State’s shortcomings last year was their propensity to give up big plays through the air, and on defense the big question mark is still the secondary. The group has much more experience than 12 months ago and adds former Temple corner Linwood Crump, but they’ll be relying on the front seven to get to the quarterback and relieve the pressure on the back end. Good job then, that this defensive line is loaded with with talent; all four starters return up front, and they have good depth at every position. Expect Scott Patchan to bring the pass rush and Manny Jones to halt the ground game, but keep an eye out for emerging junior Devin Phillips, who is tipped for a breakout year.
It’s only fair to consider this as year one for Adazzio and his coaching staff, which is a relief because the schedule doesn’t give much hope to make any noise in the Mountain West; they have both Nevada and San Jose State from the West division, and have to travel to Wyoming the week after hosting Boise State. They’ve also scheduled a pair of P5 teams on their non-conference slate in Vandy and Iowa, which they’ll be happy to split. There’s pieces to build around on this team, but the new regime will need more than 12 COVID-riddled months to get their teeth into this program.
Prediction: 4-8
6. Utah State Aggies
After returning to Logan for a second spell in 2019, Gary Andersen’s time at Utah State ended rather abruptly when he stepped away midway through last season. Andersen is a rather emotional coach and has left other places early before, but his energy for the role wasn’t sufficient enough to give the program he loved a chance of winning. In a classy move, he offered to forgo the money owed on the rest of his contract, worth in the region of $3m.
From Andersen to Anderson – after seven fairly successful years at Arkansas State, Blake Anderson comes in to take the reins. It would be harsh to go as far as saying he inherits a hot mess, but the Aggies certainly have some catching up to do in the Mountain division. To give themselves a leg up, the new head coach has stolen his former quarterback, a wide receiver and linebacker from his previous employers, and expectations are for them all to contribute early. QB Logan Bonner looks set to take the starting job from Andrew Peasley, an inevitable consequence of him knowing the new HC’s offense. He’ll have his former Red Wolves teammate Brandon Bowling to throw to as part of a healthy receiving group that includes the talented Deven Thompkins.
As with the offense, this defense should also be much better than they looked in 2020. They will have been delighted to have convinced Justin Rice to follow Anderson to Maverick Stadium – the linebacker had 18.5 TFL’s and 7 sacks for Arkansas State last year and could be the best linebacker in the Mountain West. He and AJ Vongphachanh make this position group the strength of the defense. Elsewhere there are still question marks, with a lack of experience on the back end and maybe a shortage of star talent up front, but the Aggies will bring an improved D this season.
How quickly this roster learns new schemes under Anderson and first year coordinators Anthony Tucker and Ephraim Banda will be the difference between two wins and five, but bringing in a QB that is already familiar leaves me inclined to be optimistic. The schedule is a mixed bag both in and out of the conference, but if they can carve out a win against Colorado State in late October, they may avoid finishing bottom of the pile in the division.
Prediction: 4-8
WEST
1. Nevada Wolf Pack
Now THIS is what I call a division. We look set for a three way shootout for the Mountain West ‘West’ in 2021, but with all the star power on the Nevada roster, it’s very difficult to see past the Wolfpack.
Jay Norvell may have gotten his shot as a head coach relatively late in his career, but he’s making the most of it in Reno. Three winning seasons in a row has given this Nevada program some stability, and Norvell’s nomadic career has seen him cultivate his own brand of high octane ‘Air Raid’ offense, which has really just been waiting for a big arm to take full advantage…
Step forward Carson Strong, who as a sophomore really did take the next step, throwing for 2,853 yards and 27 TD’s against 4 interceptions in just nine games. He’s created a lot of buzz for himself and will be attracting the interest of the NFL if he continues his trajectory in 2021. Helping him out is talent littered all over this offense. Running back Toa Taua, receivers Romeo Doubs and Elijah Cooks and tight end Cole Turner will all push for conference honours with predicted big seasons. Behind an experienced line, this offense could set record numbers this year.
Whilst this offense isn’t necessarily the easiest to keep up with, Nevada will want a better showing from their defense this season. Considering the personnel on this side of the ball, reducing the big plays and increasing the turnovers is a reasonable request; if defensive tackle Dom Peterson can stay healthy he’s NFL bound, and Berdale Robins is a shutdown corner who will be tasked with erasing the best receivers the Mountain West throws at the Wolf Pack. Lawson Hall opted to return for a second senior year and leads the linebackers, and Norvell wasn’t shy in adding some extra pieces to the secondary via the transfer portal – Isaiah Essissima (Wake) and Bentlee Sanders (USF) will earn their snaps. This defense looks dangerous.
Nevada has a tough schedule that could open the door for others in this division. On the road at Boise and San Diego State will test them, and they get no respite out of the conference with scheduled trips to Berkley (Cal) and Manhattan (Kansas State). But this is a legit football team and most of those opponents should be worried about facing them, not the other way round. This division, and the conference, is there for The Wolf Pack to take.
Prediction: 9-3, Division Winners, Mountain West Champions
2. San Jose State Spartans
Drooling over Nevada’s potential is in no way derogatory to the talent of the Spartans, who shocked the Mountain West last year by winning the conference. SJSU have seen steady progress under head coach Brent Brennan in his four years in charge at CEFCU Stadium, culminating in that undefeated conference record in 2020. With 19 returning starters, expect San Jose State to be right in the thick of things as the season shakes out.
The Spartans received an early boost when quarterback Nick Starkel declared his intentions to return for the extra year afforded due to the pandemic. This offense, with the exception of their two starting receivers, is pretty much the same as the one last year and look to pick up where they left off. Tyler Nevens and Kairee Robinson in the backfield offer a one-two punch as good as any in the division, and the line remains intact from 2020. As mentioned, there is concern about replacing the production of Bailey Gaither & Tre Walker, but Isaiah Holiness is expected to step up and they bolster the ranks with transfers Charles Ross (Nevada) and Donald McKinney (Santa Ana Community College).
The defense is intimidating. Cade Hall is the star of the show; a scheme-diverse defensive end who can create pocket pressure from an odd or even front. He’s party of a nasty quartet of returning linemen (Viliami Fehoko, Jay Kakiva, Lando Grey) that were dominant against the pass and run last year. They are deep across the unit and have no obvious weaknesses, although the departure of talented defensive back Tre Webb via the transfer portal – who has headed to Montana State despite a scholarship offer from Notre Dame – was a loss.
Despite a similar strength of schedule to Nevada, the Spartans have to go to Reno in November, and that probably gives the Wolf Pack the edge. That being said, there are a few other possible losses on this fixture list to concern Brennan – at USC and home to San Diego State and Wyoming. If San Jose State brings their best to the key conference tilts, they have a shot at back to back conference titles.
Prediction: 9-3
3. San Diego State Aztecs
In 2020 Brady Hoke returned to the school he coached prior to his stint at Michigan. He walked into a good situation, following Rocky Long who at the age of 70 had just led the Aztecs to his second ten-win season in three years. But a disrupted season which included games scheduled on the fly was hardly an ideal scenario for Hoke to get acclimated, a man who hadn’t been a permanent head coach in six years. 4-4 was a step back, but this program is well equipped to challenge Nevada and San Jose State at the top of the West division.
SDSU is a physical team that is strong in the trenches and likes to pound the rock. So it was no surprise that the team lost it’s way once star ball carrier Greg Bell began battling through injuries halfway into the season. Despite this he still played seven games and recorded more than 750 yards from scrimmage, with seven scores. Bell is back and behind a young but talented o-line. If whichever QB gets the job holds up their side of the bargain then The Aztecs will cause opponents problems, but Hoke still hasn’t decided between Lucas Johnson, Jordon Brookshire and Mississippi State transfer Jalen Mayden.
Last year was defensive coordinator Kurt Mattix’ first year in charge. He stuck with the 3-3-5 his predecessor Zach Arnett had had great success with, and the unit got even better, holding opponents to a stingy 17.8 points per game. If they’re to be as strong in 2021, it will be the front seven leading the way – defensive end Cameron Thomas leads a veteran defensive line, and linebacker Caden McDonald might be the most talented player on the whole roster. Forget the 4-4 record last year – on talent alone San Diego State is a heavyweight in the Mountain West.
In the conference, The Aztecs have the horses to keep up with Nevada and San Jose State, although back to back road trips against the Spartans and Air Force is a sticky spot on the schedule. They do have a chance at setting the tone early with a win over P5 Arizona in Tucson in week 2, and should be battle tested before MWC play kicks in after their bye week.
Prediction: 8-4
4. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Cool stat; last year Todd Graham became the first head coach at Hawaii to win their debut game since Bob Wagner in 1987. What’s more impressive is that the five coaches in between had all lost their opening games by more than 20 points, but to be fair Graham was following Nick Rolovich who won 10 games in 2019 before taking the Wazzu job. Still, a winning record and a bowl win to start off his Hawaii tenure gives the Rainbow Warriors a platform to work off heading into 2021.
With GJ Kinnie leaving for the UCF OC job, Graham’s son Bo is promoted to offensive coordinator. It feels a little nepotic but Graham Jr has good experience working under offensive minds such as Gus Malzahn, MIke Norvell and Billy Napier. He inherits an offense that looked a lot better at the end of 2020 than it did at the beginning, and a full offseason to work with these guys should see a step up in production. Their passing attack is one to be feared; Chevan Cordeiro put up impressive numbers last year and has a pair of talented receivers to target in Calvin Turner and Jared Smart. Nick Rolovich had focused on the run, but this will be a much more balanced attack than before.
All eleven starters return on defense, and with last year’s numbers an improvement from the season before, the unit is trending in the right direction. Former Hawaii defensive linemen Victor Santa Cruz is DC in Manoa and is excited about the talent at every level, not least the secondary which adds three promising transfers to the group including Arnold Azunna (Iowa State), Colby Burton (McNeese State) and Hugh Nelson (Georgia). That being said, this defense is still playing catchup to the big boys of the MWC and we can expect Hawaii to be in some shootouts this season.
Todd Graham is an experienced head coach who benefited from a break before last season, but the season ahead could be tough one despite the improvement in talent. They play an extra game than most (13), kicking off with a tough one on Saturday at UCLA. Weirdly they play NEw Mexico State twice in the same season, and have to go to Wyoming in late November to wrap up their year. They could potentially play spoiler to SJSU or SDSU, but if Graham gets them to another bowl game then he will be more than happy with year 2 on the island.
Prediction: 7-6
5. Fresno State Bulldogs
Head Coach Kalen DeBoer has only coached one year at the FBS level, a 3-3 season with Fresno last year. But a 67-3 record as head coach of Sioux Falls is also on his resume and often goes unnoticed. He parlayed that success into a shot as an OC with Southern Illinois, worked his way up to Fresno State and Indiana, before finally getting his shot at the top job after returning to Bulldog Stadium last year.
In a competitive West division, Fresno State is another program that doesn’t lack for talent. Particularly on offense, where they have one of the best groups of pass catchers in the conference – Jalen Cropper, Keric Wheatfall and Josh Kelly combined more than 1,200 yards last year and with Jake Haener impressing in his first year following a transfer from Washington, big things are expected from this air attack. Defenses get no respite on the ground either, as dual threat running back Ronnie Rivers returns, a guy with 3,686 yards and 44 touchdown’s in his Bulldog career.
Whilst not as explosive as the offense projects to be, the defense returns ten starters and has star power in spots. Kevin Atkins is lining up one more year of major production on the interior of the defensive line for NFL scouts to drool over, and has edge rusher David Perales lined up alongside him. DeBoer has also added a ton of talent via the transfer portal with linebacker Tyson Maeva (Boise State) and box safety Elijah Gates (UCLA) both likely impact starters.
The only reason Fresno is this low down in the rankings is their schedule – road trips against Wyoming, San Diego State and San Jose State will be tough, plus they have both Nevada and Boise State to contend with. Throw in non-conference away games at Oregon and UCLA and you begin to wonder if they have a shot at parity this year. But the firepower on this roster is evident, and they’ll win some games they shouldn’t.
Prediction: 6-6
6. UNLV Rebels
The last time Nevada-Las Vegas had a winning record was in 2013. Second year head coach Marcus Arroyo will be under no illusions as to the size of the task ahead following an 0-6 season in 2020, but it’s going to take years before the Rebels are competitive in the Mountain West.
If UNLV is to stand any chance of stealing some conference wins, it will be on the back of a surprisingly potent ground game. Charles Williams – with a big season – could break the all-time rushing yards record; he currently sits on 2,940 yards in a standout career. Whilst the addition of Oregon transfer Jayvaun Wilson won’t help his chances, it might help The Rebels win a game or two. Kyle Williams is an exciting receiver, but the passing game is relying on a lot of youth to see improvement.
Some green shoots appear on defense, where ten starters return and some depth has been added via the transfer portal. Second year coordinator Peter Hanson stuck with the established 4-3 scheme in year one, but makes the switch to an odd front for 2021, possibly more suitable for the speedy edge rushers Adam Plant and Jacoby Windmon. USC transfer Connor Murphy needs to acclimate quickly to help a run game that leaked yards last year, and Kylan Wilborn comes in from Arizona to add to the linebacker rotation. These feel lie band-aid moves for a unit that toils to keep up with the aggressive MWC offenses, and the secondary in particular will be picked on.
If UNLV doesn’t handle their business against FCS opponent Eastern Washington in week 1, then there’s a very real danger that DeBoer goes two years without a win. They’ll likely be underdogs in almost every single contest thereafter, with perhaps a home game against Utah State after a bye week looking like their best chance at a conference victory. The talent level has increased, but not enough – we might see a busted flush in Las Vegas this year.
Prediction: 1-11
