conference preview 2021: Independents
By Simon Carroll
A team-by-team analysis and predictions of the independent football programs ahead of the 2021 college football season:
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2020 was a very successful season for the Irish, and in a sense truly vindicated the Brian Kelly regime in South Bend. Forced into the ACC thanks to the pandemic, Notre Dame beat Clemson in the regular season before falling to them in the title game, but still made it into the college football playoffs for the second time in three years. The stain of the two vacated seasons (2012/13) for fielding ineligible players following academic misconduct by a trainer is barely remembered as Kelly has just one losing season in his other nine campaigns, with five bowl wins and three top-5 ranking finishes.
Things might be a bit trickier for the Irish in 2021, even if the wins keep on coming. Kelly and his staff had nine players drafted by the NFL, and return just three starters on offense. Quarterback Ian Book left campus as one of the most successful QB’s in Notre Dame history, and will be replaced by Jack Coan, who transfers in from Wisconsin. Coan was beaten out by Graham Mertz in Madison but should be serviceable at worst in this offense – but he’ll have an inexperienced o-line in front of him. He also loses his top three pass catchers in Ben Skowronek, Javon McKinley and Tommy Tremble, but there’s still plenty of talent on this offense; Kyren Williams should bring another 1,000 yards on the ground, and Michael Mayer and Avery Davis will step up in the passing game.
The biggest loss on defense might be their coordinator Clark Lea, who left for the Vandy job. But they bring in Marcus Freeman who did a phenomenal job in Cincinnati to replace him. This unit should be just as stout as last year despite some guys going pro – Myron Tagovailoa-Amosa will replace some of the pass rush production lost with the departures of Daelin Hayes and Ade Ogundeji, and they have two stars in the back seven (MLB Drew White, FS Kyle Hamilton) that will have scouts excited.
At first glance the schedule looks manageable, with just USC and North Carolina expected to really give Notre Dame a problem. But look closer and you’ll notice that they face SIX teams coming off a bye week, and not one of them is a cupcake game – Wisconsin (at Soldier Field), Cininnati (undefeated last year), at Virginia Tech (tough road game), USC, North Carolina and at Virginia. There are so many banana skins here it’s hard to see the Fighting Irish come through clean, and anything more than one loss will scupper their chances of another playoff spot come January.
Prediction: 10-2
Read Stiofán Mac Fhilib’s in depth ‘Keys To The Season’ article on Notre Dame here:
Liberty Flames
Anyone following Oliver Hodgkinson’s coverage of the Liberty Flames for The Touchdown last year will be aware of just how incredible a job Hugh Freeze did with this football program; only an FBS school since 2018, Freeze took the Flames to within a missed field goal of an undefeated season in just his second season in charge. The Flames finished 10-1, beating Virginia Tech in Blacksburg – a notoriously hard road game – before overcoming Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl to end the season.
With twenty starters returning, this roster has depth at almost every single position, and Freeze will be confident in another big year in Lynchburg. Quarterback Malik Willis has come alive since transferring from Auburn, finding a true home at Williams Stadium and thriving under Freeze’s tutelage. His dual threat game is impossible for defenses to contain for sixty minutes, and his name is being thrown around as a dark horse for a Heisman run. He sits behind an offensive line that is so experienced that the entire two-deep returns 127 career starts. They have a backfield tandem that could contribute more than 1,500 yards on the ground in Joshua Mack and Utah transfer TJ Green, and a playmaking receiving corps led by DJ Stubbs, Kevin Shaa and former Colorado TE Johnny Huntley. Everywhere you look, this offense is stacked.
As good as Liberty was last year, their games were always exciting – and the defense will want to step up and reduce the number of shootouts in 2021. The Flames won five contests by just one score in 2020, and conceded 34 points or more in four out of ten games. This year they return ten starters and should be better by virtue of experience, although this coaching staff have been keen to add talent via the transfer portal; Skylar Thomas (Wazzu) and Rashaad Harding (ULM) come in and should see plenty of snaps, whilst edge rushing duo TreShaun Clark and Durrell Johnson are set for breakout seasons.
Independent teams always have interesting schedules – Liberty ease themselves in with a cupcake schedule through September, likely ending in another victory against an ACC opponent when they go to the Carrier Dome. From there the slate gets a little tougher – on the road at UAB will be a must watch contest, ending the season with back-to-back home games against Louisiana and Army is tasty, and of course Freeze returns to Ole Miss on November 6th to play the team he once coached, with plenty of narratives available for the media to jump on. Win there en route to an undefeated season and The Flames’ resume may get a flicker of interest from the CFP committee.
Prediction: 11-1
Army Black Knights
Jeff Monken has turned football around at West Point. Hired in 2014 to make Army relevant again, Monken has got this program into shape, with four winning seasons out of the last five. More importantly, they’ve beaten Navy four times in that spell too. Finishing on a 9-3 record and benefitting from the extra year of eligibility, this roster is as deep as it ever has been, and they’ll be hoping to break into the national rankings come the end of the year.
Offensive coordinator Brent Davis has been with this program as long as Monken has, and Army’s distinctive triple-option offense will be on show once again in 2021. This makes the backfield and offensive line the key areas of the unit, and both have seen talent depart. Just one starter returns up front, although Monken is bullish about the group as a whole, whilst Sandon McCoy and Artice Hobbs both move on at running back. This RB group is still deep though, and whilst the offense prohibits one name to set big numbers expect significant contribution from Tyrell Robinson, Jakobi Buchanan and Anthony Adkins to keep the offense moving.
The defense, benefitting from the offensive scheme and how much clock it chews up, has always set impressive numbers, which should obviously be taken in a vacuum. A big reason for last year’s success was the arrival of DC Nate Woody, who had experience at Georgia Tech, App State and Michigan State. His coaching saw the development of key starters Nolan Cockrill (DT), Arik Smith (LB) Jabari Moore (CB) and Cedrick Cunningham (S). All these guys return, and if anything this Army defense should get stouter in 2021.
The Black Knights have lined up opponents from all over the country. An early tilt against WKU may not seem a big draw but could be season defining for both programs, whilst October sees them up against two P5 opponents in Wisconsin and Wake Forest. Liberty looms at the end of the year before the Civil War finishes things off. This schedule is far from easy, but no team will relish facing Monken and co. in 2021.
Prediction: 8-4
BYU Cougars
To be in Provo, Utah last season was to witness something quite unique; everything came together for the Brigham Young Cougars in a way not seen since the days of Steve Young. Zach Wilson emerged from absolutely nowhere, leading a talent-rich offense to national relevance. Head coach Kalani Sitake was just a yard away on a potential game-winning play to being undefeated and making a case for the playoffs, in a year where contests were rescheduled, sometimes just two days before kickoff.
Expect there to be a regression in 2021 – there simply has to be. Wilson, along with tight end Matt Bushman, receiver Dax Milne, and linemen Brady Christensen and Chandon Herring all head to the NFL. Losing 40% of your line isn’t an ideal situation when you’re blooding in a new starting quarterback – which, by the way, is still up for grabs. Jaren Hall and Baylor Romney compete with Jacob Conover, who returns from a LDS mission this season. This offense will flip the script and rely on Tyler Allgeier to move the chains; the sophomore running back had more than 1,300 yards from scrimmage last year and figures to be one of the best ball carriers in the nation.
The loss of talent continues on defense; DT Khyiris Tonga, LB Isaiah Kaufusi, CB Chris Wilcox and safeties Zayne Anderson and Troy Warner are no longer on the team, amongst others. Their linebacker corps is still intimidating; Keenan Pili leads a group that includes Payton Wilgar and Max Tooley, which between them accounted for 173 tackles in 2020. But with a lack of experience up front it’s going to be tough sledding for a unit that epitomised the ‘bend don’t break’ mantra last year.
BYU scored 41 points or more in nine games last year, and conceded 14 points or less in seven. You can disregard those numbers, not just because of the talent, but because of the schedule; The Cougars have scheduled SEVEN power five opponents in 2021, and whilst some are winnable (Arizona, Washington State), most will be tough outs. You can add Boise State and Georgia Southern onto that list too, and finishing at USC is just cruel. BYU are always well coached, but fond memories of last year’s campaign may have raised expectations at LaVell Edwards Stadium that quite simply will not be met.
Prediction: 6-6
New Mexico State Aggies
A football outpost on the edge of the Chihuahuan Desert, only El Paso has a college football program closer to the Mexican border than Las Cruces. For most CFB fans, New Mexico State may as well play in another country – for the past three seasons the Aggies have been independent, and it’s fair to say they haven’t taken well to their new status, winning just six games over that span. Head Coach Doug Martin took this team to the first bowl game in their history in 2017, but has struggled since then. Last year NMSU all but gave up on football through the pandemic, playing two games against FCS opponents – and losing one of them handily.
The rustiness was to be expected, and is likely to carry over into this year too – State went 415 days without practicing through COVID. An offense that has spots of talent is thin in depth across the board; Jonah Johnson returns at quarterback to lead this unit, the only signal caller with experience and that was two games in 2019. He had one TD and three interceptions. Things look a little brighter in the backfield with former Michigan RB O’Maury Samuels likely to lead the group with help from Juwuan Price. Some transfers come in at receiver and tight end, and whilst it’s a thankless task up front the o-line should at least be better than advertised. But there’s no mistaking the job Baldwin has on his hands, who has no OC and coaches the offense himself.
Frank Spaziani (former Boston College HC) runs the defense, and has done admirably with the talent available – his unit was a key reason for that 2017 success, limiting opponents to less than 30 points a game. The talent isn’t as high as it was then, but in linebacker Trevor Brohard they do have a leader and someone offenses will need to be wary of. The LB group is the standout unit on this defense as NMSU adds Chris Ojoh via the transfer portal, once of Eastern Washington. It should also be mentioned that Baldwin is high on his special teams unit, which has consistently ranked higher than expected under coordinator Oliver Soukup.
The priority for this program in 2021 is survival, not winning – and that means financially too. So trips to SEC opponents Alabama and Kentucky back to back in November serves a purpose other than being humiliated on the field. A ‘derby day’ game against UTEP to open the year could provide them a win, and a Mountain West-heavy slate should give them other opportunities of victory. They also oddly play Hawaii twice and could split the games. Regardless, The Aggies will just be pleased to get back to playing football.
Prediction: 3-9
UMass Minutemen
2021 will be the tenth season since The Massachusetts Minutemen became an FBS football program. First entering as part of the MAC before going independent, in that timespan they’ve won nineteen games. The most successful head coach in the school’s history – Mark Whipple resigned from his second stint after 2018, and long-time OC Walt Bell (Arkansas State, Maryland, Florida State) took the reins. Just one win in two years shows the task Bell has in front of him, but he’s been given licence to build for the future, and green shoots just might be appearing.
The offense was so bad a year ago, that even the most pessimistic Minutemen fans will be confident of an improvement in 2021. Quarterback looks a little settled after they flirted with Zamar Wise throughout the spring – he moves back to tight end and Colorado transfer Tyler Lytle looks set to be named the starter. Bell runs the offense himself and likes a big arm to operate his pro scheme, and Lytle is reported to have the deep ball in his locker. But with underwhelming weapons, running the ball will be the priority – Starter Ellis Merriweather is fast, aggressive and a locker room leader, but the position has some unusual depth after being joined by Kay’Ron Adams from Rutgers and Jonathan White from Hutchinson Community College. Expect them to bring a ground and pound mentality to Amherst this year.
‘Intriguing’ is the best way to describe this defense, which was almost as bad as the offense the last two seasons. The secondary in particular is a group that DC Tommy Restivo is optimistic about. Well travelled cornerback Bryce Watts (North Carolina, Virginia Tech) joins the team, as well as his former Tar Heel teammate Bryson Richardson. They give the back end depth it sorely lacked, having just 8 DB’s listed in 2020. Elsewhere there are questions, but more transfer help from Rutgers (Devin Baldwin) at least adds bodies to the defensive front.
As you’d expect there’s an East Coast vibe to the schedule, with three ACC teams on the schedule plus daunting trips to Coastal Carolina, Liberty and Army. A nice touch is playing Pitt in the opener, whose offensive coordinator is former coach Mark Whipple. Pleasantries aside, it’s still a loss, as are most of these games, but Bell will hope that a couple of FCS opponents in November will provide a little relief.
Prediction: 2-10.
Connecticut Huskies
Not many football programs have had it as rough as UConn in the last decade. Bouncing from the Big East to the American to Independent, if it wasn’t for it’s stellar basketball program then the football team would likely have dropped to the FCS level to remain competitive. In a desperate attempt to stay relevant the Huskies have turned back to Randy Edsall, a coach who had winning seasons five out of seven years during his last stint in East Hartford. Six wins in three years shows just how much the job has changed, and after opting to cancel all football in 2020 it doesn’t look like things will be easier for Edsall in 2021.
That being said, their head coach has used the last year to make some significant changes at Rentschler Field. A new, more open offense has been installed, and the roster was put through a workout-intensive schedule that involved 25 practices and 4 workout sessions each week, despite there being no games. For a declining program that lost a year they bring back 91 players that have used their absence from the field to get bigger, stronger and faster.
Some key transfers have come in too; Valentin Senn joins from Colorado, giving them a pair of monstrous offensive tackles in him and Ryan Van Demark. And a dubious secondary gets a boost with JuCo talent Stan Cross coming in, who should see immediate nickel duties. But the biggest factor on this team is the return of Kevin Mensah, who as a walk-on put up back-to-back 1,000 yard rushing campaigns in 2018/19, and has 2,852 all purpose yards in his Husky career. Expect him to be the bellcow for the offense as they look to take the next step forward.
A triple header of Clemson, UCF and Houston is a torrid way to end what is likely to be a long year at UConn. In fact, any FBS opponent will be favoured on this schedule, including UMass. If Edsall can ensure wins against Holy Cross and Yale, anything else will be a bonus – but he’ll want to see strides taken on the field after taking this program back to brass tacks over the last eighteen months.
Prediction: 2-10
