conference preview 2021: Conference USA

By Simon Carroll

A team-by-team analysis of the C-USA, the season ahead and final standings predictions.

EAST

1. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

The East division in the Conference USA is a three way dogfight in 2021, and one of those programs in the mix will be WKU. The Hilltoppers took a major step back last year, the quarterback position being a disaster. But Tyson Helton has taken measures this offseason to ensure that this program bounces back, and you can expect a Western Kentucky team more akin to the one we saw in 2019 (9-4) than the one we witnessed in 2020 (5-7).

The biggest of those measures was a huge shake-up on offense. OC Bryan Ellis is now a co-OC, as Zach Kittley comes over from Houston Baptist. Kittley brings near enough the whole record breaking HBU offense with him, as QB Bailey Zappe and his three wide receivers (Jerreth Sterns, Josh Sterns, Ben Ratzlaff) join the program. With this talent around him, Zappe threw for 19 TD’s to just 1 interception in four games last year. The QB catastrophe that was Tyrell Pigrome and Kivaris Thomas have both transferred out, and are soon to be forgotten. In total, WKU has brought in a whopping TWELVE transfers to completely retool this offense.

More new faces come in on defense, but this unit now belongs solely to DC Maurice Crum after sharing duties with Clayton White in 2020. Just four starters return on this side of the ball, but the fearsome pass rush remains, and at least up front this defense is one of the best in the conference. DeAngelo Malone has 24.5 sacks and 41.5 TFL’s in his Hilltopper career so far, and will want to further showcase his talents to the NFL in 2021.

The Hilltoppers naturally pull some big guns on their non-conference schedule, with Army and Indiana looking very tricky fixtures. But a surprise win in East Lansing wouldn’t be the biggest shock of the season, and their strength of schedule is a comfortable #114 in the nation. Their Conference USA fate will be determined in the last two games of the season as they host FAU then travel to Marshall, but they’ll be very much in with a shout when we get to that stage.

Prediction: 8-4, Division Winners

2. Marshall Thundering Herd

As mentioned earlier, I had to choose a winner of the C-USA East, and I went with WKU, but both Marshall and FAU have just as good a shot to finish top of the pile. The Herd bring in a new head coach in former Alabama assistant Charles Huff, and as far as first-time jobs go he couldn’t have asked for a better one. Marshall see fifteen starters from their division winning side in 2020 return, and they’ll be confident of a repeat this year.

Marshall was very good on both sides of the ball last season. They had a differential of 117 yards per game last year, the best in the conference. Their defense will take a lot of credit for that, ranked number 2 in the nation, conceding just 280 yards per game, and led the FBS in scoring with 13 points per game. Cornerback Steven Gilmore is a tackling machine and free safety Nazeeh Johnson something of a takeaway artist. They both return, and there’s no reason to expect a dropoff in 2021.

Offensively, they have taken a couple of late hits this offseason. All-American guard Cain Madden transferred to Notre Dame and two of their receivers also found new homes, whilst star running back Brenden Knox headed to the NFL. Marshall will want to see new faces step up at all these spots, but Huff will be buoyed by the fact that in Grant Wells they have a quarterback who flashed rare talent last year, and another offseason should help him gain better consistency.

Marshall place just behind WKU in these rankings due to a new head coach and a tougher conference schedule than the Hilltoppers. Not only do they travel to Florida Atlantic, but they then come home to face current C-USA champions UAB. The Herd will be good this year – and with that defense will be tough to beat for any program in 2021.

Prediction: 8-4

3. Florida Atlantic Owls

The Owls are the final team in the East that have a shot at making it to the conference title game. Willie Taggart bounced back nicely from his Florida State humiliation, jumping out to a 5-1 start in his first year in charge at Boca Raton before losing the last three. With a young roster and a new head coach that was to be expected, and with almost all of his starters back 2021 could be a big season for FAU.

This offense looks dangerous. 10 starters return, and Taggart went and brought in some serious talent via the transfer portal this offseason. Former Miami QB N’Kosi Perry will spearhead Taggart’s famous ‘Gulf Coast’ scheme, a high-powered attack that predominantly leans on RPO’s to move down the field. One special name to keep an eye out for is electric freshman QB Javion Posey, who will be used as a receiver and gadget weapon this season.

Last season the Owls’ defense was a key reason why they started so well. Defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt headed to SMU this offseason, and Mike Stoops comes in to replace him. Stoops benefits from ten returning starters from a unit that gave up just 17.4 points a game in 2020. Linebacker Chase Lasater will set the tone, whilst Jaylen Joyner will be relied upon to replace some of the sacks lost with the departure of Leighton McCarthy.

FAU will be another fun watch in what looks set to be an epic race in this half of the conference, but having to face both WKU and Marshall on the road (and UAB too!) makes their life a little tougher than the competition. They might hit the same win totals, but their conference record should fall just short.

Prediction: 8-4

4. Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders

A major step forward is expected in Murfreesboro in 2021. Middle Tennessee was hit as hard as any team during the pandemic, seeing their roster decimated by holdouts and games scheduled at short notice to replace cancellations. This saw them start 0-4, but in a test of character they prevailed, winning three out of the last five. Head Coach Rick Stockstill is a legend at Red Floyd Stadium and you can bank on him getting this program back to winning ways.

It’s all change on offense, as new OC Brent Dearmon comes over from Kansas. He’ll have a bonafide QB to work with after Bailey Hockman transfers over from NC State, and two promising running backs in Amir Rasul (Florida State) and Martell Pettaway (West Virginia), who actually came in the year before but opted out. This influx in talent marries up with the return of nine starters from last year – you can expect a significant improvement from the 22.9 points per game in 2020.

The Blue Raiders’ struggles last year can be attributed to a porous defense. Whilst ten starters return and there is a lot more experience in the group, this is still a unit that lacks the star names outside of tackling machine Reed Blankenship. Their star safety flirted with heading to the NFL last year before opting to come back to MTSU, and they’ll need him to be flying round the field again if they’re to keep games close enough for their growing offense to compete.

The schedule is far from pretty. If Stockstill is shooting to be bowl eligible, he’ll likely have to win a matchup he shouldn’t because C-USA games against WKU, Marshall, FAU, Southern Miss and UTSA all look tough, whilst non-conference tilts with Virginia Tech and Liberty look downright nasty. Their Head Coach hasn’t racked up 94 wins with the Blue Raiders without winning through adversity though, and their losing season streak should end at two.

Prediction: 6-6

5. Charlotte 49ers

Will Leavy returns for his third season in charge at Jerry Richardson Stadium. After surprising everyone with a 7-5 record in 2019, the 49ers struggled in a ridiculously disrupted season – even by COVID’s standards – going 2-4. A bounceback to winning ways seems as unlikely as Leavy’s impressive first season was, but they should be a little more competitive in 2021.

Wide receiver Victor Tucker is the star man on this football roster. With over 2000 yards in just 29 games in his Charlotte career, the senior is expected to make All-Conference honours once again. Who he has throwing to him is not quite as certain as you’d expect; Chris Reynolds returns for his final year with the 49ers, but he might well be pushed by Texas A&M transfer James Foster, who as a four star recruit out of Montgomery, Alabama, is the highest rated QB ever to play at UC. Whoever gets the nod will have a reasonable o-line to work behind, with blindside protector D’Mitri Emmanuel a potential future pro.

The defense sucked last year, and Leavy knows it. Just five sacks in their six games, as well as 420 yards per game conceded, was probably the catalyst for adding no less than seven Power 5 transfers this offseason. Co-defensive coordinators Brandon Cooper and Marcus West will have a task on their hands blooding in this new talent, but edge rusher Kofi Wardlow (Notre Dame) and safety Tank Robinson (East Carolina) look like immediate starters and immediate contributors.

The inexperience on defense makes life tough for Charlotte, despite a kind schedule that sees them avoid some of the better teams in the West and host FAU and Marshall. There’s also the potential to shock either Duke or Illinois, who are projected to prop up their respective conferences. But the talent differential is probably too much, even if the offense puts up a game fight.

Prediction: 5-7

6. Florida International Panthers

After three bowl games in his first three seasons at University Park, Butch Davis gets a COVID mulligan for a winless season in 2020. A whopping 45 players on this roster missed 25 days or more due to COVID last offseason, making it impossible to prepare for the year. With almost a full house coming back in 2021, some transfers coming in, and a full preseason to work with, Panthers fans will expect things to return to the norm in the win-loss column too.

Their traditional spread offense may need to be tweaked this year to make best use of running back D’Vonte Price, one of the top offensive weapons in the Conference-USA. FIU only played five games in 2020 but Price ran for 581 yards and four scores. Not much of a factor in the passing game, maybe taking the ball out of QB Max Bortenschlager’s hands and putting it into Price’s would be a prudent step.

FIU struggled against the run last season, but gets their top six tacklers back. That said, the front seven still feels bereft of talent despite some transfers coming in from both power five and group of five schools. The Panthers saving grace is the secondary, that might stake a claim to be the best in the conference; twin brother Rishard Dames (cornerback) and Richard Dames (safety) are the leaders on the back end that, somewhat unsurprisingly, are extremely cohesive.

The bounceback Davis and his program will enjoy depends on how they do out of conference, and a 2-2 record before they get stuck into their C-USA rivals isn’t out of the question. A competitive division caps their potential, probably just short of a bowl game, but the improvement from 2020 will be considerable.

Prediction: 5-7

7. Old Dominion Monarchs

After the program opted out of 2020 completely, expecting Old Dominion to be competitive this year is unfair. They won one game back in 2019 and longtime head coach Bobby Wilder resigned, whilst a lot of their best talent transferred out to play elsewhere last year. Former Penn State offensive coordinator Ricky Rahne comes in to take over, and he’s got a hell of a job on his hands.

As you can imagine, not a lot of talent returns to this team. Rahne will look to install a dynamic offense like he has run in the past, and swooping for former UCF QB Darriel ‘DJ’ Mack in the transfer portal was a good start. Mack is a dual threat quarterback that should help create things off-script when it all inevitably breaks down around him. They’ve got a varied backfield and added some talent at receiver from other schools, but projecting how viable this offense will be after a year away is nothing more than guesswork.

The ODU defense was surprisingly decent in 2019 despite losing eleven games, but that’s where the good news ends for the Monarchs, as only three guys from that unit are still on the roster. Their best player two years ago was Keion White, who actually switched positions from tight end to defensive end. He finished with 19 tackles for a loss and will be the biggest hole to fill on this unit. Defensive coordinator Blake Seiler will hope Minnesota transfer Deeve Harris can account for some of the missing production.

Scheduling Wake Forest and Liberty might get you on TV and help fill the coffers, but it doesn’t leave much room to find wins on the schedule for this program. Rahne best make sure they take care of local Virginia FCS school Hampton if they don’t want to lay a goose egg this season.

Prediction: 1-11

WEST

1. UAB Blazers

Last year’s C-USA champions look imperious once again under the tutelage of Bill Clark. The Blazer legend came to Birmingham in 2014 and saw his program terminated, before sticking around and helping it get reinstated again three years later. Since then, UAB have never finished lower than second in the West, have been to four bowl games in a row, and have taken two conference titles along the way. Despite the success, it feels like only the beginning for this team.

UAB doesn’t only have one of the best defenses in the conference – it’s one of the best defenses in the country. Coordinator David Reeves has done an excellent job coaching up mid level recruits into NFL calibre prospects. Whilst the Blazers lose star sack master Jordan Smith, they return nine of their starters and add LSU pass rusher Justin Thomas via the transfer portal. The list of talent on this unit is insane; expect Antonio Moultrie (DT), Noah Wilder (LB), Kristopher Moll (LB/S) and TD Marshall (CB) all to be in the running for 1st team conference honours this year.

Disturbingly for the competition, the offense is not far behind. Despite losing bellcow running back Spencer Brown, this backfield is arguably deeper and more talented with Dewayne McBride, Mississippi State transfer Lee Witherspoon and all-round offensive weapon Jermaine Brown sharing the carries. McBride, when spelling Spencer Brown last year, went for over nine yards a tote behind this imposing offensive line. Aerially, Tyler Johnston returns under center after a year battling injury. He has a legitimate deep threat in receiver Trea Shropshire to work with. Everywhere you look, The Blazers are stacked.

UAB gets both Marshall and Florida Atlantic from the East, and have tough non-conference games against Georgia and Liberty. It shouldn’t matter; if they lose more than one conference matchup it will be a surprise. This program couldn’t ask to be in better shape as it leaves Legion Field and ushers in a new dawn at the state of the art 47,000 seater Protective Stadium.

Prediction: 9-3, Division Winners, Conference USA Champions

2. UTSA Roadrunners

The job first year head coach Jeff Traylor did in 2020 with UTSA was worthy of more attention; this team had won a grand total of three games against FBS opponents combined the previous two years, and their preseason was totally destroyed due to COVID. Despite having two new coordinators installing new schemes with no practice time, Traylor led the Roadrunners to seven wins and a bowl game. Even in defeat they impressed, competing with UAB and giving both BYU (ranked #15) and Louisiana (#16) runs for their money. If any team can cause The Blazers concern, it’s this one.

After scoring 49 or more points three times last year, it’s no surprise to learn that this offense is deadly. Undoubtedly the crown jewel of this unit is running back Sincere McCormick, who had almost 1,600 all-purpose yards and 11 scores in 2020. He heads into his junior year primed for a bigger role and better numbers behind this beastly offensive line, that has serious NFL talent including left tackle Spencer Burford and center Ahofitu Maka. The passing game is sharp too; QB Frank Harris is primed for a breakout year and has elite receiving options in Zakhari Franklin and Joshua Cephus. Try and take away one aspect of this offense at your peril – UTSA will kill you on the ground or through the air.

An improved defense in 2020 should continue the upward curve with all of the starters back and more talent added via the transfer portal. Linebacker Trevor Harmanson will lead this unit, and additions Dru Prox & Denzel Feaster both come over from Kansas and figure to contribute. If nothing else, this unit has much more depth than last year. A quick note on special teams; UTSA always showcase excellent ST play, and this year projects to be no different. Hunter Duplessis might prove to be the best kicker in the nation.

UAB will be very wary of the Roadrunners after their unlikely success last year. You can imagine a huge jump in 2021, and the schedule is more than manageable to have them pushing for top spot in the West. Circle November 20th when they host The Blazers as one to watch, as it’s likely to be the division decider.

Prediction: 8-4

3. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Skip Holtz has found a home in Ruston, LA. His fourth stint as a head coach has seen him rack up eight seasons at Joe Aillet Stadium, and he’s not had a losing record since his first year in charge. The Bulldogs have won the West three times during his tenure, and whilst a fourth might be too much of an ask in 2021, LA Tech will be hard to beat.

Holtz has an experienced roster to work with this season. The offensive line was a weakness last year, banged up and lacking depth, but it might be a competitive advantage in 2021; three of the starters return with games under their belt, and The Bulldogs add Samuel Williams from fellow Louisianans ULM, who should slide in immediately at right tackle. Any improvement in protection should help quarterback Luke Anthony, who struggled for consistency and accuracy before suffering a nasty leg injury against TCU. But in truth, this offense will go as well as grad transfer Marcus Williams goes; if the former App State running back settles quickly then it will be a huge boost to this unit.

A similar story on defense, as ten starters return as well as star edge rusher Willie Baker, who opted out of 2020. Despite going 5-5 last year the D disappointed as a whole, but more veterans as starters will give immediate help. Holtz also did well to bring in Baylen Buchanan from Tennessee, a highly sought after cornerback who had options in the transfer portal. Buchanan is aggressive, lays all over the field and is sure to be used on CB blitz packages by defensive coordinator David Blackwell.

The Bulldogs get a nice cross-conference schedule, picking up two easier games against Charlotte and Old Dominion from the East. But three projected losses on their out of conference slate (at Mississippi State, SMU, at NC State) will cap their win total. Nevertheless, Holtz is odds on to keep the bowl streak going.

Prediction: 7-5

4. Rice Owls

It’s been tough sledding for Mike Bloomgren since he arrived in Houston, so it might seem strange to suggest that the corner has been turned with this program considering he’s not won more than three games in a season. But consider this; Rice are actually 5-3 in their last eight matchups, and those three losses were by ten points or less. With 19 starters returning it’s time for some optimism at Rice Stadium.

Bloomgren pulled off a coup by attracting former Nebraska QB Luke McCaffrey to the program in the transfer portal. McCaffrey is far from a polished product, and it remains to be seen if his run first, throw second game will mesh well with new OC Marques Tuiasosopo’s pro style offense. He threw six picks and just one TD in limited gametime last year in Lincoln, but considering the lack of QB talent on this roster, he’s a key addition. He’ll operate behind a stout offensive line that has been a big reason for Rice’s improvement, and have two solid playmakers to count on in receiver Bradley Rozner and tight end Jordan Myers.

The Owls’ defense was one of the best in the C-USA last season, and with ten returning starters should get better. The one guy they do lose is team leader and star linebacker Blaze Alldredge, who more than earned his transfer to Mizzou. Despite that, this unit is stout and should be able to keep games within the offense’s reach.

It’s going to take a couple of upset wins on this schedule to do it, but there’s a definite chance of this program pushing for a .500 record. The first three games of Arkansas, Houston and Texas doesn’t bode well for a quick start, but they’ll be a headache for the ambitious teams in this division.

Prediction: 5-7

5. Southern Miss Golden Eagles

It’s fair to say that 2020 was a mess at MM Roberts Stadium. Eight players opted out due to COVID, before head coach Jay Hopson resigned after just one game. Scotty Hall stepped in to fill the breach and he also left before the season was over, taking the Austin Peay job after just four games in charge. Three different QB’s were used, with starter Jack Abraham opting out midseason as things fell apart. Three wins shows that this roster still competed, and even won their last game of the year against an FAU team pushing for a place in the title game.

The new head coach, Will Hall, comes with some pedigree, albeit at the FCS level with stints at West Alabama and West Georgia. He inherits an offense with a bunch of playmakers but no definitive answer at quarterback; the favourite to start is Trey Lowe, the only QB on this roster with any experience. He’s a dual threat quarterback with a big arm and it will be interesting to see what he can do. Regardless, the main draw on this unit is Frank Gore Junior, who much like his father knows how to tote the rock. He averaged almost 6 yards a carry last year and will be leaned on heavily in 2021.

Things look more settled on defense, even if it lacks an eye catching name or two. The secondary is probably the strongest aspect of the unit, returning most starters and adding a pair of former Ole Miss Rebels in Lakevias Daniels and Jay Stanley. They lose star safety Ky’el Hemby, but the ascendance of nickel corner (and explosive returner) Natrone Brooks should help maintain some ballhawking ability on the back end.

There are pieces for Hall to hang his hat on with this team, but year one coupled with a lack of quality at quarterback will hinder the start of the project significantly. A weak out of conference schedule might garner some early wins and a better overall record than Rice, but inside the C-USA it will be a whole different story.

Prediction: 6-6

6. North Texas Mean Green

After back to back 9-win seasons in Denton, Seth Littrell has mustered just 8 victories in the last two years at North Texas. To be fair, last season had mitigating circumstances; COVID affected a lot of teams’ offseason programs, and changing both coordinators was unfortunate timing.

Known for producing high powered offenses, Littrell has some pieces on that side of the ball that can hopefully bring an improvement in output in 2021. There has been a migration to a more balanced attack the last two years, and this running back stable is as good as any in the C-USA; Oscar Adaway brings the size, Isaiah Johnson the speed, and DeAndre Torrey the dynamism that will see him lined up all across the formation. Even QBs Austin Aune and Jace Ruder can make plays with their legs. Behind a strong o-line that includes two names on the NFL’s radar (Jacob Brammer, Manase Mose), the ground game will be hard to stop.

The Mean Green defense was possibly the worst in the conference last year. Allowing an alarming 42.8 points and 522 yards per game, there is serious work to be done. Bringing back ten starters will help, even if it’s just the value of experience. Littrell has given new DC Phil Bennett some depth via the transfer portal, particularly up front where Kameron Hill (Abilene Christian) and Enoch Jackson (Arkansas) come in. This front might be the best aspect of the unit, with big tackle Dion Novill expected to challenge for conference honours. Despite the optimism for improvement, expect the defense to struggle to keep pace with their offense.

They’ve done themselves no favours of a chance of a bowl game with their non-conference schedule (at SMU, Mizzou, Liberty), with just Northwestern State a projected win. A brutal run in October could produce an empty win column, but a lighter stretch to end the year – when the defense has had time to grow – will give them an opportunity at respectability.

Prediction: 4-8

7. UTEP Miners

Trying to get this UTEP program competitive has been a slog for 4th year head coach Dana Dimel. With just one conference win in three years, The Miners have been the whipping boys of the C-USA for some time. But three wins in 2020 – in unparalleled circumstances – has given this team hope that momentum is slowly turning in their favour.

UTEP has a tidy, if not spectacular offense that should be able to keep them in games. It may be a little more run-heavy than in previous years under new OC Dave Warner, who will look to lean on the tandem of Quadraiz ‘Q’ Wadley and redshirt freshman Deion Hankins. Wadley in particular has a point to prove after going down for the year after just three carries in 2020. But don’t sleep on the air attack – Gavin Hardison is one year more experienced, and if he can take advantage of the talented Jacob Cowing at receiver then this team will put up numbers not associated with last placed programs.

This could be the most talented defense that Dimel has coached in his time at El Paso, but truth be told that’s not the big endorsement it sounds. What they did well last year, they did very well; tough against the run and could get off the field, particularly on short distance third downs. But they were susceptible to big plays and couldn’t stop a thing in the redzone – first year DC Braldey Dale Peveto benefits from eight starters returning and benefits from the arrival of grad transfer Walter Neil, the cornerback from K-State (where Dimel has strong ties). Neil’s experience at a higher level will be crucial if the defense is to become more consistent against deep balls.

The Miners might still be a step behind the next team in the West (UNT), but have a very soft non-conference schedule and might match their total record if nothing else. They won’t be as brittle as in years past, but conference wins will still be difficult to come by – a home game against Old Dominion represents their best chance of doubling Dimes’ C-USA career total.

Prediction: 4-8

Mock Draft

SIMON CARROLL

HEAD OF CFB/NFL DRAFT CONTENT

PREVIOUSLY THE FOUNDER OF NFL DRAFT UK, SIMON HAS BEEN COVERING COLLEGE FOOTBALL AND THE NFL DRAFT SINCE 2009. BASED IN MANCHESTER, SIMON IS ALSO CO-CREATOR & WEEKLY GUEST OF THE COLLAPSING POCKET PODCAST.

5/5