conference preview 2021: Big 12
By Simon Carroll
A team-by-team analysis of the Big 12, the season ahead and final standings predictions.
1. Oklahoma Sooners
Absolutely no surprises here; Oklahoma has won the last six Big 12 titles, and this pattern will not change in 2021. They did it the hard way last year, losing their first two conference games before going undefeated the rest of the way, avenging the defeat to Iowa State in the title game. With a more experienced roster at key positions, things might prove to be a little more straight forward this season.
Lincoln Riley has turned Norman into a destination for the top collegiate quarterbacks, and Spencer Rattler is the next name on that illustrious list. Rattler took a couple of games to get into his groove but after that played at an elite level, throwing over 3,000 yards and 28 TD’s in 11 games. This year he’ll be even better as his own game improves, but also as all the talent around him gets better; they have perhaps the best o-line in the country, a running back pairing of Kennedy Brooks and Eric Gray that is unrivalled, and a deep cast of receivers despite the loss of Charleston Rambo. This offense is stacked.
What’s most scary is that, in a conference that usually pays little interest in defense, The Sooners’ D might be more improved than their offense. Third year DC Alex Grinch has had this unit on the right trajectory, and it looks to take a major step this year; star players are everywhere you look in the front seven, with Isaiah Thomas, Perrion Winfrey, Nik Bonitto and Brian Asamoah likely all possessing game changing ability. They lose some talent in the secondary, but Woodi Washington is an emerging talent with a nose for the football. Oklahoma comfortably has the best roster, from top to toe, in the Big 12.
The ability of this program, coupled with the schedule ahead, makes playoff football an attainable target for The Sooners in 2021. A three game non-conference stretch of at Tulane, Western Carolina and Nebraska should help them avoid a slow start like they endured last year, and their only potential rival for the conference – Iowa State – travels to Norman in November. If they can avoid defeat in the Bedlam game in Stillwater to round out the year, they should be undefeated.
Prediction: 12-0, Big 12 Champions
2. Iowa State Cylcones
Head coach Matt Campbell has done such a good job in Ames that any newcomer to college football would think they were a national powerhouse. After one season of finding his feet he’s had a winning record every year at Jack Trice stadium, culminating in last season’s 9-3 record (which could – and maybe should – have been even better), a Fiesta Bowl drubbing of Oregon, and finishing 9th in the national rankings. Do they have the horses to compete with Oklahoma for the conference title?
Offensively, yes. A strong unit last year returns most of its starters. Quarterback Brock Purdy has a moment of madness in him but he’s one of the most talented – and experienced – QB’s in the nation. More importantly, he has a strong o-line, some unplayable weapons to throw the ball to, and a superstar running back to keep defenses honest. Expect The Cyclones to line up in 2-tight end sets heavily this year as they take advantage of playmakers Charlie Kolar and Chase Allen, with potential All American Xavier Hutchinson on the outside offering the deep threat. In any other program, running back Breece Hall would be pounding the rock until the wheels fell off; in this star studded offense he gets to be part of a more balanced attack and will be all the better for it. Iowa State’s offense is legit.
Defensively, maybe yes as well! Stop me ‘fanboying’ here whilst I reel off who’s who of talent; Will McDonald could lead the Big 12 in sacks, Mike Rose might take home the Dick Butkus Award, and Greg Eisworth and Anthony Johnson will patrol the secondary. Jon Heacock has been with this program as long as Campbell has, and he’s never had this much talent at his disposal. Despite some key losses from last year’s squad, nine starters return which should reduce the number of ‘bonehead’ plays that caught them out last year. This defense will be a problem for any team on their schedule.
Speaking of: Iowa State won’t fear a single opponent on their schedule, and that includes Oklahoma. They’ve beaten them twice under Campbell and won’t be intimidated heading into Norman at the end of the year. They don’t quite have the pedigree of their division rivals in the eyes of the playoff committee, and despite being ranked fifth ahead of the season will likely need to go undefeated to be invited to the dance.
Prediction: 11-1
3. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Mike Gundy returns to Stillwater for his SEVENTEENTH season in charge of The Cowboys. His sixteenth one followed the recent trend, winning eight games – but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Two of their three losses were one score games, with just in-state rivals Oklahoma beating them handily. This – on the back of a controversial offseason where he had to fend off a mutiny from star running back Chuba Hubbard – was surprising.
Things look set to get a little tougher in 2021 as the offensive firepower gets decimated. Hubbard, receiver Tylan Wallace and tackle Teven Jenkins all head to the NFL. That being said, whilst there may be less standouts on the depth chart, it does feel deeper. Quarterback Spencer Sanders returns under center and should be ready to lay down his best season yet at Boone-Pickens stadium. It’s down to Gundy and second year OC Kasey Dunn to develop some of the talent stepping up – something the entrenched HC has proven he can do year after year.
Things look a little more settled on defense, with 8 starters returning. Their strength lies in the secondary, particularly at safety where Kolby Harvell-Peel and Tre Sterling operate. These two seniors are set for big seasons as they bulk out their resume for the draft scouts. Perhaps the leader of this unit though is linebacker Malcilm Rodriguez, who has 42 starts under his belt and has improved each year in Stillwater. This defense is sneaky good, and opponents would be wise not to show it a lack of respect.
The Cowboys’ schedule is ugly, ranked the 17th hardest in the nation. Not only do they face some key conference opponents on the road (Texas, Iowa State), there’s a couple of nuisance games to start the year (Tulsa, at Boise) that aren’t easy but probably must win if they want a successful season. Having said that, this program is wildly underrated and should elevate themselves as ‘the best of the rest’ in the Big 12 in 2021.
Prediction: 8-4
4. TCU Horned Frogs
No team plays spoiler better than The Horned Frogs. Notoriously tricky customers, TCU have been a thorn in the ambitions of Texas, and to a lesser extent Oklahoma, in the nine years they’ve been in the Big 12. Head coach Gary Patterson has spent twenty years in Fort Worth and guided this program through four different conferences. He’s had them ranked nationally in the top ten six times, which quite frankly is ludicrous.
Recent seasons have been tough in comparison to the lofty heights Patterson has reached with TCU, but 2021 projects as a bounce back year. Eighteen starters return, which is the most in the Big 12, and their offense looks set to take a huge step forward as QB Max Duggan enters year three. His reduction of turnovers last year saw a maturity of his game that should reach peak levels this season. He’ll be better protected up front with Steve Avila at center and Memphis transfer Obinna Eze at left tackle leading the way. Meanwhile, running back Zach Evans had almost 8 yards per carry last year and leads the backfield, whilst receiver Quentin Johnston should be the breakout player of the conference.
In a disturbing theme amongst the usual carefree Big 12, TCU also have a defense that looks strong heading into this year. They have a pass rush, earmarked by the defensive end pairing of Ochaun Mathis and Khari Coleman, and a killer secondary that has shutdown corner Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson amongst it’s talents. ‘THT’ had a whopping THIRTEEN passes defended last year – expect him to shadow WR1’s around the field.
Out of the ‘second tier’ of schools in the Big 12, TCU has the hardest in-conference schedule. They’re on the road at Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State, as well as a tricky trip to Manhattan. It’s also a breathless schedule that has their bye in week 2 and no other breaks until after Thanksgiving. There’ll be a nice jump for the Frogs in 2021, and nobody will want to play them, but eight wins sounds about right.
Prediction: 8-4
5. Texas Longhorns
A new regime takes the reins in Austin this year. Four years of poor coaching and playcalling under Tom Herman was enough, and Texas turned to Steve Sarkisian to get this program back to the pinnacle of college football. It won’t be easy for Sark, who walks into a program at the end of a talent cycle that includes the departure of Sam Ehlinger, the quarterback and leader of this team. A splash hire, the Longhorn faithful might need some patience to see the turnaround they crave.
With Ehlinger gone, the focus of the offense will switch to the run game – something that probably should have happened last year considering the talent they have in the backfield. Bijan Robinson joins an all-star list of Big 12 ball carriers set to explode; the true freshman blazed to over 700 yards on just 86 carries, and will be fed the football in 2021. With just Sam Cosmi not returning on the o-line, this offense really only has one question mark – will it be Hudson Card or Casey Thompson who gets the start at quarterback? And will Sark be able to get them in a position to take advantage of the talent around them this year?
The Horns lose a lot more talent on the defense, with Joseph Ossai, TaQuon Graham and Caden Sterns all hitting the NFL. Pete Kwiatowski comes in at DC after a distinguished spell in charge of the defense at Washington, and will be tasked with making this unit fulfill their potential better than the previous regime was able to. In cornerbacks Josh Thompson and D’Shawn Jamison they have the makings of a potent secondary, whilst grad transfer Ray Thornton (LSU) looks set for an immediate starting role next to the impressive DeMarvion Overshown. This unit has more depth, but the front seven has lost some impact guys.
The boosters in Austin are notoriously impatient, but asking Texas to compete with Oklahoma and Iowa State in year one is unreasonable. Sark has had a promising offseason, attracting some big coaches to join him on this project and landing some coveted recruits and transfers in his first offseason. But even if everything goes their way (which it won’t – this is still Texas) they’ll be extremely lucky to finish third in the conference this season. All gas, no brakes; but the road back is long.
Prediction: 8-4
Read Alex Chinery’s Texas Longhorns season preview here:
6. Kansas State Wildcats
2020 was a tale of feast or famine for Chris Klieman in his second season in charge in Manhattan. Jumping out to a 4-1 record, including a takedown of Oklahoma in Norman, K-State capitulated when they lost quarterback Skylar Thompson for the season. They lost their last five, and there were some brutal losses too – 45-0 to Iowa State and 69-31 to Texas spring to mind. Succeeding Bill Snyder was never going to be easy for Klieman, but he’s done admirably so far.
Is this the year we see this program build some depth? Last season was lost before it began, with four new starters on offense taking too long to get settled before Thompson’s injury saw them hoist the white flag. If their QB can stay healthy, he’s got a potential pro career ahead of him, and with some battle-tested players up front now he can expect better protection. That instantly makes this offense better, although he’ll have to see some growth from promising pass catcher Malik Knowles to offer him something other than Illinois transfer Daniel Imatorbhebhe to target. Deuce Vaughn should have also have a big year after flashing as a freshman in 2020.
The huge blowouts versus Texas and Iowa State skew the stats, but this defense spent a lot of time on the field last year and there is talent there to see an immediate improvement on this side of the ball. Joe Klanderman returns for his second season as DC and will be pleased to see the d-line having some depth it lacked last year – Charlotte transfer Timmy Horne is an experienced veteran who will help against the run, whilst promising edge trio Khalid Duke, Felix Anudike and Bronson Massie should maintain pressure on the quarterback. A similar story elsewhere sees transfers bolster the ranks – it wouldn’t surprise me if this unit is the most improved defense in the conference, even if it doesn’t quite reach the height of others.
It’s an unforgiving set of fixtures for the Wildcats in 2021 – ranked the 6th toughest nationally. A neutral opener against Stanford (weird matchup) is a difficult start, and Nevada will be a potential banana skin. Then in conference they open at Stillwater then play Oklahoma the week after, face Iowa State coming off a bye, and wrap up a seven game stretch in Austin against a presumably ascending Texas team. If Klieman gets this program bowl eligible he’ll have done well.
Prediction: 6-6
7. West Virginia Mountaineers
Head coach Neal Brown enjoyed a winning season in his second year in charge at Morgantown, including some impressive wins against then #16 ranked K-State, TCU, and the LIberty Bowl win over a 9-2 Army team. With a lot of experience on this roster the Mountaineers might have their sights set on an even better return in 2021.
Quarterback Jarret Doege seems to have been around forever, yet he returns for one final year at WVU. Statistically, 2020 was his best season since he left Bowling Green, throwing over 2,500 yards and having a TD-INT ratio of 14:4. These numbers could have been even higher if he wasn’t let down by his receivers, but if he can stay healthy and in this vein of form Brown will be happy. But the key to this offense is ball carrier Leddie Brown, who is expected to challenge for conference honours when all is said and done. Doege and this air attack will fare much better if it comes off the back of a stellar ground game – keeping Brown healthy is crucial to the offense’s success.
Where did all these good Big 12 defenses come from?! West Virginia’s D was phenomenal last year, but significant losses to their starters may see a step back. Darius Stills and Tony Fields’ absence will be felt the most – Fields one of five linebackers that depart. Some transfers come in across the formation, but Jordan Lesley has a job on his hands to get them familiar with his 4-2-5 scheme.
Outside of a trip to Oklahoma, the home-road balance of WVU’s schedule tilts in their favour. Mountaineers fans will be pleased to see some non-conference rivalry games added to the slate, on the road at Maryland to start the season and hosting Virginia Tech two weeks later. Brown is bullish about this team’s chances but the defense needs to hold up it’s end of the bargain – a season of surprise wins and disappointing losses feels on the cards.
Prediction: 6-6
8. Texas Tech Red Raiders
For the first time in what feels like forever, Texas Tech was somewhat predictable in 2020. They won the games they were favoured in, and lost the ones where they were underdogs, resulting in a four win season for Matt Wells. Two of those losses (Texas, Oklahoma State) were one score shootouts, meaning this team wasn’t far off parity at all. With spots of talent all over this depth chart but maybe a lack of depth, this program should revert to wildly exciting inconsistency once again.
New offensive coordinator Sonny Cumbie is tasked with getting this air raid offense back on track – and after playing QB for the Red Raiders under the godfather of this scheme Mike Leach, you’d think he knows how to create a vertical attack. A splash acquisition of former Oregon QB Tyler Shough should help inject a bit more of a gunslinger vibe to this unit, and why not; with a dangerous trio of receivers in Erik Ezukanma, Kaylon Geiger and Jerand Bradley he has options to thow to. The offensive line is a concern after a mediocre showing in 2020 – they lose star tackle Jack Anderson to the NFL.
In all the years Leach and Kliff Kingsbury coached at Tech, they never had a defense as good as the one Wells has built in three years. That doesn’t say much considering the porous Red Raider D’s of years past, but this is a unit that can now hold its own. Eight starters return but Wells still added a heap of talent via the transfer portal. One man wrecking machine Colin Schooler comes back for his fifth season and second in Lubbock – the linebacker is the NCAA’s active career leader in both tackles (375) and tackles for a loss (52).
The Big 12 is always a cannibalistic conference, with programs sniping wins off each other. In that regard, consider the Red Raiders a sharpshooter – they’ll almost certainly be in line for more wins than last year, and seem to crop up at opportune moments against other schools who have just had big contests the week before. Guessing a record is difficult – they could be 7-2 or 3-5 by their bye week. Not many teams will provide as much entertainment though.
Prediction: 5-7
9. Baylor Bears
Dave Aranda was on a hiding to nothing in his first year in charge in Waco. Coming off the back of a Matt Rhule-inspired 11-1 season, Aranda had a host of talent leaving town and no offseason to help the replacements find their feet. Naturally they regressed, and whilst Bears fans might be disgruntled with just two wins it was somewhat inevitable. Considering three of their seven losses were by one score, Baylor should bounce back a little in 2021.
It won’t be easy though. This depth chart gets 17 starters back, but the talent level is lower than they would like. With Charlie Brewer departing to Utah they have no established quarterback, and the battle for the starting job is as wide open as any in the NCAA; Gerry Bohanon and Jacob Zeno are the veterans, but freshmen Blake Shapen and Kyron Drones are also in the mix. Elsewhere, the backfield is varied but with no clear cut bellcow, whilst the receiver group has some nice complementing talent, including tight ends Ben Sims and Drake Dabney.
Whilst the offense is something of an unknown quantity, Baylor fans can be confident of a step forward under Aranda, whose defenses in both Wisconsin and LSU always outplayed their talent levels. This was borne out last year, when The Bears lost a ton of talent to the NFL but still competed gamely – holding The high powered Sooners to just 269 yards a perfect case in point. This year is a different story – ten starters return. That experience will be crucial in the front seven as they look to improve their run defense; tone-setting linebacker duo Terrel Bernard and Jalen Pitre return, and Aranda brings in imposing nose tackle Siaki ‘Apu’ Ika, whom he recruited whilst in Baton Rouge.
With a cupcake out of conference schedule lined up (apologies BYU), Baylor have given themselves a shot at a .500 record, which considering their starting point would be a success in year two of the new regime. They form part of the ‘peloton’ of Big12 teams that will jostle for position with each other, but the uncertainty at QB could be the difference between 4th and 9th in this conference.
Prediction: 5-7
10. Kansas Jayhawks
As a program, Kansas Football simply cannot get out of its own way. They’ve not been shy in shooting for the stars, throwing money at coaches such as Charlie Weis and Les Miles, only to be let down on and off the field. Miles’ sexual harrassment allegations saw the end of him and former athletic director Jeff Long, and a new regime is in situ in Lawrence. New AD Travis Goff brings over Lance Leipold from Buffalo to turn this football team around, but it won’t be easy, and it won’t be quick.
You wouldn’t know it, but Kansas has had talent on this roster through the years of drought – something that must irritate Jayhawks fans who have not seen KU win more than one conference game since 2008, the last time this program had a winning record. With Leipold bringing over both of his coordinators from Buffalo (OC Andy Kotelnicki, DC Brian Borland), there’s going to be another transition. This coaching team arrived AFTER spring practice, meaning they’ll be tasked with identifying the talent on this roster and developing it on the fly – hardly ideal for a team destined to be propping up the Big 12.
Leipold and Kotelnicki will want to find their QB early; there’s currently a camp battle between Jason Bean, Miles Kendrick and Jalon Daniels, and nobody has distinguished themselves with the season two weeks away. They lose RB Pooka Williams to the NFL and WR Andrew Parchment to the transfer portal (FSU), but the line should be better. Defensively atrocious in 2020, The Jayhawks might see a reduction in points and yards allowed, but the mental focus has moved on to 2022 with this season already consigned to disappointment.
Kansas will be favoured in just one game this season (South Dakota). Don’t be surprised if Leipold sees some traction late in the year and players begin to buy in, with the final game of the season in Lawrence against West Virginia a potential upset win. But anything this year will be regarded as a bonus.
Prediction: 1-11
