Conference Preview 2023: Mountain West
By Simon Carroll
A team-by-team analysis of the Mountain West, the season ahead and final standings predictions.
1. Air Force Falcons
2022: 10-3 (5-3)
If you look at the stats, there is an argument to be made that Air Force were the best program in the Mountain West last year. Their three losses in 2022 were by a combined total of 15 points, a sign of what could have been that bodes well for the coming season.
Legendary head coach Troy Calhoun returns for his SEVENTEENTH year in Colorado Springs. The Falcons will live and die behind their famous triple option offense ran expertly by long-time coordinator Mike Thiessen, but with 20 wins in the last two years it seems to be faring well. Despite the loss of QB Haaziq Daniels and three productive running backs in Brad Roberts, Emmanuel Michel and Omar Fattah, I would expect this unit to continue to torture defenses with their unique style of play.
That being said, the real optimism for this team lies on defense, where eight starters return. Air Force have a fearsome secondary, with safeties Trey Taylor & Camby Goff and corner Michael Mack legitimate all-conference contenders. Up front they have the juice to pressure the pass too, with Bo Richter and Jayden Thiergood a constant menace.
Verdict: 10-2 (7-1): With the Falcons avoiding Fresno State, and playing both Wyoming and San Diego State at home, double-digit wins is a realistic target in what is shaping up to be a very competitive Mountain West in 2023.
2. Wyoming Cowboys
2022: 7-6 (5-3)
Despite being one of the biggest victims in the big Transfer Portal migration, Craig Bohl was still able to lead Wyoming to a winning record in 2022. This year, the Cowboys look in much better shape, returning 15 starters as Bohl enters his tenth season as head coach.
Consistency has transformed this program from a disregarded football outpost in Laramie to a regular Mountain West protagonist, with just one losing season (‘COVID 2020’) in the last seven years. Established coordinators Tim Polasek and Jay Sawvel return again to help Bohl in his quest to bring the school their first MWC Championship, and things look good for them to challenge in 2023.
This Cowboys defense is STACKED. DeVonne Harris (EDGE), Jordan Bertagnole (DT), Cole Godbout (DT), Shae Suiaunoa (LB) and Easton Gibbs (LB) form the crux of a fearsome front seven that should lead the conference in run defense. They’ll have their work cut out though – the schdule is brutal, with trips to Texas, Boise State and Air Force and home games against Texas Tech and Fresno all before the end of October.
Verdict: 8-4 (6-2): The calendar makes life difficult for The Cowboys, but the talent is there to make a run at a conference that has done away with divisions. They’ll get stronger as the year progresses, and a late push might just see them crash the championship game.
3. Boise State Broncos
2022: 10-4 (8-0)
After a slow start in 2022, Boise went on something of a tear, sweeping the Mountain West through the regular season after replacing offensive coordinator Tim Plough with Dirk Koetter. Andy Avalos showed some mettle when it came to making changes with his own job potentially on the line – and it paid dividends, with the Broncos re-establishing themselves as a Mountain West heavyweight after a down year in 2021.
Coinciding with an improvement in form was the introduction of Taylen Green at quarterback. Green looks sets to be the undisputed starter under center as he enters his sophomore year, and has a pair of elite targets to work with in Stefan Cobbs and Eric McAlister. Backed up by a strong run game in the form of George Holani, this offense looks set to lead the conference in both yards and points per game in 2023.
There are some questions on defense for co-DC’s Spencer Danielson and Kane Ioane, with six starters moving on. But the biggest obstacle for this program is the schedule; four daunting road trips to Washington, San Diego State, Memphis and Fresno State likely determines the success of Boise State’s season.
Verdict: 8-4 (6-2): The result of the late October tilt versus Wyoming could decide which program earns a place in the championship game. The slate notwithstanding, this Broncos roster is as good as any in the Group of Five conferences.
4. Fresno State Bulldogs
2022: 10-4 (7-1) – Mountain West Champions
Following in the footsteps of Kalen DeBoer was no mean feat, but head coach Jeff Tedford had a debut season to remember with the Bulldogs. After a sluggish 1-4 start Fresno went unbeaten the rest of the way, winning the Mountain West and beating Washington State in the LA Bowl.
Things look a little tougher this year though. The conference has gotten a lot more competitive, and Fresno has seen a lot of talent depart – particularly on offense. Star quarterback Jake Haener heads to the NFL, and takes his two prized receivers (Jalen Moreno-Cropper, Nikko Remigio) with him. Running back Jordan Mims, who accounted for 1,370 yards and 18 TD’s last year, also makes the leap to the pro’s. How quickly sophomore QB Mikey Keene finds his feet will determine the drop-off from this unit in 2023.
Expect their defense to be opportunistic; corners Carlton Johnson and Cameron Lockridge are as a good a pairing as any in the conference, with six takeaways between them last season. They’ll have to be on their game too, as Fresno’s schedule sees them travel to three of the MWC heavyweights (San Diego State, San Jose State, Wyoming) as well as two P5 teams in September (Purdue, Arizona State)
Verdict: 8-4 (6-2): A slight regression for the Bulldogs should be expected considering the talent that has left. But a couple of breaks could see them once again vie for a conference championship.
5. San Diego State Aztecs
2022: 7-6 (5-3)
It’s been a tumultuous offseason for the Aztecs, with realignment driving a wedge between this program and the conference. Despite SDSU’s future seemingly settled as they stay in the Mountain West, the knock-on effects in recruiting and the transfer portal are yet to be understood.
At 7-6, Brady Hoke’s fifth season at San Diego State fell a bit flat. And despite having them only fifth in my predictions, I expect the Aztecs to slightly improve on that record in 2023. Quarterback Jalen Mayden, who inspired something of a turnaround in 2022, returns. He will lean on elite tight end Mark Redman, as well as Western Carolina transfer Raphael Williams, who put up an astonishing 1,617 yards for the Catamounts last year.
There are some holes on the defensive line for the Aztecs to negotiate; brothers Justin and Jonah Tavai and edge rusher Keshawn Banks all depart. They accounted for 17.5 sacks last year, and how much of that production Oklahoma State transfer Sam Tuihalamaka can replicate is unknown.
Verdict: 8-4 (6-2): The Aztecs get both Boise State and Fresno State at Snapdragon Stadium, with just a trip to Air Force as a presumed loss in-conference. The friendlier schedule should mitigate for some of the departures, but SDSU remain a beat behind the elite in the Mountain West
6. San Jose State Spartans
2022: 7-5 (5-3)
Are San Jose State being left behind in the Mountain West? Under the tutelage of Brent Brennan, the Spartans won the only conference title in their history in the COVID-affected 2020 season, posting a perfect regular season record. That one year aside though, Brennan has a record of 20-41, and a 7-6 record last term may not have been truly representative of where this program is.
Hope for improvement this year falls on the offense, where nine starters return. The Spartans may have something of a quarterback competition, with Chevan Cordeiro potentially challenged by Jay Butterfield, who transfers in from Oregon. The running game should remain strong as Kairee Robinson looks to improve on his 750 yards in 2022.
On Defense, Derrick Odum has his hands full, managing a wholesale replacement of the d-line from the JuCo ranks. One cause for optimism is the in-conference schedule, that has just a tricky trip to Boise as a real banana skin. Don’t expect a quick start though – SJSU travel to USC and host Oregon State to kickoff the year.
Verdict: 6-6 (5-3): Leading the Mountain West with +10 turnovers in 2022 probably skewed the Spartans’ record, and the talent pool has probably been diluted since then too. That said, San Jose State can be a tough game for anyone on their day, and should be considered dangerous.
7. UNLV Rebels
2022: 5-7 (3-5)
It’s slow going, but UNLV are on an upward trajectory. Winless in 2020, Marcus Orroyo took the Rebels to two wins and then five wins last season. That wasn’t good enough for him to keep his job, and he is replaced by Barry Odom, who will look to continue the momentum his predecessor spearheaded.
Things didn’t start particularly well when Odom’s handpicked offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino came and went in a matter of weeks, discarding them for the same position at Texas A&M. He’s replaced by Brennan Marion, who steps up from QB Coach. Getting this offense firing is no mean feat; UNLV have averaged more than 30 points per game across a season just once in 45 years. A move to a more-run heavy, misdirection scheme should help in that regard.
Why have the Rebels struggled so much in recent history? They struggle to score, and they struggle to stop the opponent scoring. That said, last year saw a major leap on defense with their best performance in fifteen years. With seven starters returning, including backfield menace Jalen Dixon, UNLV will hope this trend continues. They will have to replace linebacker Austin Ajiake, who topped the conference charts with 132 tackles.
Verdict: 6-6 (4-4): A nice schedule could see the Rebels get back to a bowl game for the first time since 2014. They’ll have to do it early though, as November sees them face Wyoming, Air Force and San Jose State in back to back weeks.
8. Utah State Aggies
2022: 6-7 (5-3)
After winning the Mountain West in his first season in Logan, Gary Anderson oversaw an expected minor regression in 2022. The Aggies did well to bounce back from an awful 1-4 start to make a bowl game, and a similar outcome isn’t an unreasonable expectation this coming season.
The loss of quarterback Logan Bonner is going to sting. There is hope that junior Cooper Legas can fill those big shoes after stepping in for Bonner and leading Utah State to a surprise win over Air Force last year, before getting injured himself. His main target will be Terrell Vaughn, a dynamic slot receiver who showed promise in 2022.
The defense has suffered some losses. A lot of pressure will be on big run stuffer Hale Motu’apuaka, whilst cornerbacks Ike Larsen and Michael Anyanwu will need to improve the turnover differential which sat at -9 for the Aggies last year. With DC Ephraim Banda leaving for the Cleveland Browns, Joe Cauthen comes over from Stephen F. Austin to take the reins.
The Mountain West schedule STINKS for Utah State, having five of the big six programs on the docket in 2023. It likely scuppers their chances of surprising in the conference like they did two years ago.
Verdict: 6-6 (3-5): With some flux in both personnel and coaching staff, coupled with a tricky schedule, Gary Anderson will do well to book a bowl berth.
9. Colorado State Rams
2022: 3-9 (3-5)
Colorado State haven’t won more than four games in a season since 2017, but there were signs that Jay Norvell had started to turn things round in his first year in Fort Collins. Despite a mass exodus in talent via the transfer portal, Norvell was able to find three wins, matching the record from the year before.
The players seem to have bought in too, with fifteen starters returning for 2023. Quarterback Clay Millen has established himself as the undisputed starter and showed promise down the stretch. But he will hope to be protected better – Millen was the most sacked QB in the FBS last year. To that end, CSU have brought in FOUR transfers that all look set to be immediate starters on the offensive line.
The Rams are much more settled on defense. Last season they only gave up 325 yards per game in the Mountain West, and they look to be even better this year, with safety Jack Howell and edge rusher Mohamed Kamara the standout performers. Kamara registered 8.5 sacks last term, and he’ll be joind by North Dakota State transfer Tony Pierce, who had 8 himself with the Bison.
Verdict: 5-7 (2-6): Colorado State’s conference schedule is pretty mean, and finding wins before their last two games against Nevada and Hawaii will be tough. That said, I can see the Rams shocking Dion Sanders and improving to five wins in year two for Jay Norvel.
10. Nevada Wolfpack
2022: 2-10 (0-8)
2022 was a season to forget for Ken Wilson. The longtime Wolfpack position coach returned to Nevada for the top job, only to go winless in the conference – enjoying just two victories all year.
The good news? Things should look a little better in 2023. Nevada suffered some close losses last term, and with 14 starters returning should be in a better spot to compete in the Mountain West. The bad news? The talent level remains short of their rivals. They do add former Colorado starting QB Brendon Lewis, who likely beats out Shane Illingworth and upgrades the passing game; he’ll have a veteran group of skill players to work with, if nothing else. Keep an eye out for running back Sean Dollars, who comes in from Oregon and has the potential to be a real star.
There’s more optimism on defense. Kwame Agyeman returns as DC after following Wilson to Nevada from Oregon, and they’ve brought some Ducks with them; linebackers Jackson LaDuke and Adrian Jackson add to an already physical group, with Drue Watts expected to challenge for conference honours. This unit gave up 31 points a game last year – i’d be surprised if that doesn’t drop.
Verdict: 4-8 (2-6): A fairly generous schedule should see Wilson pick up his first MWC wins as a head coach. Modest improvement from the Wolfpack, but the heady days of Carson Strong are far from returning to Reno.
11. Hawaii Warriors
2022: 3-10 (2-6)
Hawaii legend Timmy Chang returned to the islands as head coach last year with his eyes wide open – this was not an easy job. And so it proved in year one, with the Warriors winning just three games. Things certainly improved through the season – after losing the first three games by a combined 141 points, Hawaii did much better down the stretch, with only the champions Fresno blowing them out.
Memories of June Jones come flooding back as Chang further reintroduces the run and shoot offense to this attack. Incorporated midseason, the Warriors return only five starters, so it’s likely any progress made will be mitigated by some new faces. Both Brayden Schager and Joey Yellen underwhelmed in 2022, but should be more familiar with the playbook this year. Versatile weapon Tylan Hines is the real star of the offense; expect to see him in the backfield or playing out of the slot.
After giving up 438 yards per game last year, Chang went on a recruitment drive on the defensive front. Elijah Robinson (ECU) and Wynden Ho’ohuli (Nebraska) join to hopefully add some pass rush, whilst local products Kuao Peihopa and Siaosi Finau transfer in from Washington to bolster the run defense. Ringfencing the talent from the islands will be a future priority for Chang and his coaching staff.
Verdict: 3-10 (1-7): A tough schedule that has thirteen games in 2023 doesn’t give Hawaii much chance to improve their record, even if the product on the field takes the next step. A visit from Stanford early on the ticket (Friday night game) does have serious upset potential.
12. New Mexico Lobos
2022: 2-10 (0-8)
Head coach Danny Gonzalez is Albuquerque born and bred. A New Mexico alum, he returned to be head coach of the Lobos in 2020 after a successful career as a defensive coordinator at San Diego State and Arizona State. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to change the fortunes of his alma mater, with a record of just 7-24 over three seasons.
The forecast doesn’t suggest things will change in the immediate future either. Gonzalez suffered a big blow, losing both coordinators in the offseason – particularly legendary DC (and former Lobos HC) Rocky Long, who heads to Syracuse. With nine starters also leaving, the defense is set for a major regression. Cornerback Donte Martin is the major star, and the secondary does benefit from some talent coming in via the transfer portal.
There will be much more optimism on offense. New OC Bryant Vincent comes in from UAB and brings his quarterback with him. There are high hopes for Dylan Hopkins, who has ten starters returning to work with. They also added JuCo receiver DJ Washington who figures to be a significant contributor. Throw in the running back tandem of Christian Washington and Andrew Henry (ULM transfer), and this unit should be vastly improved.
Verdict: 2-10 (0-8): It’s hard to pick a conference game where New Mexico can be considered favourites, but the improvements on offense might see them steal a couple of wins. Regardless, it’s another tough year for Gonzalez.
