CFB: Notre Dame Fighting Irish Week 9 Preview
By Stiofán Mac Fhilib
After six straight games, Notre Dame has its second bye week of the season and a chance to re-group. A 34-24 victory in the rivalry game over USC leaves the Irish still very much in playoff contention at 5-2. Time to take stock of the season to date and assess ND’s chances of making it to the post-season party.
Looking Back at Last Week
Amidst the metaphorical storm brewing around the possible Lincoln Riley-led cessation of this historic college football fixture, last Saturday saw an actual storm move across northern Indiana. But despite fears of a change to the kick-off time and lightning delays, in the end, the constant second-half rain was the only impact the weather had on the game.
The #20 Trojans arrived in South Bend with the top-ranked offense in college football, and QB Jayden Maiava led them down the field on their opening possession to a 10-play, 75-yard TD drive, capped off with a perfect 10-yard pass to TE Lake McRee. “Well, show us what you’ve got” was the gauntlet thrown down to the #13 Irish. The answer was Jeremiyah Love, and the best game by an Irish running back in the 95-year history of Notre Dame Stadium.
24 carries for 228 yards and a TD, with five catches for another 37, propelled ND’s best player into the Heisman conversation and broke the back of the Trojans. Lincoln Riley appeared to enter the game determined not to let CJ Carr repeat his 342 yards/4 TD outing the previous week against NC State. USC played with two high safeties frequently, even when CJ Carr struggled a bit relative to his recent high standards, and the Irish ran early, often, and mostly at will.
USC passed 42 times for 328 yards. Notre Dame ran it 44 times for 306. The crucial difference was the trio of turnovers in the Trojan passing game: a pair of INTs thrown by Maiava, and a critical fumble by WR Makai Lemon while trying to pass on an ill-advised trick play in the fourth-quarter downpour.
USC twice went ahead in the game, but their first-quarter 7-0 lead lasted just 58 seconds, and when Ja’Kobi Lane’s 59-yard TD pass reception put them 24-21 up in the third, it only took 15 seconds for Jadarian Price to repeat his kickoff return TD from the same fixture two years ago.
Lemon entered proceedings as USC’s biggest receiving threat but was held to just four receptions for 76 yards and zero TDs. Leonard Moore, Notre Dame’s best CB, was frequently tasked with covering him, and he held him to two catches on three targets for just 28 yards—one more line for a CV that should see Moore drafted in the first round in April 2027.
Lemon’s fumble with just over ten minutes to play came as the Trojans were driving and trailing by just three points. Three Love runs took the Irish to the USC 5-yard line and from there CJ Carr iced the game with a Riley Leonard-esque short-yardage TD run between the tackles, behind lead blocker…Jeremiyah Love.
On a night where the Irish were missing their starting Center, and their best DT, they still dominated on both lines of scrimmage, on a night where their performance most closely resembled that of the 2024 ND side. If they can finish the season in the same manner that that team did after the NIU debacle, then Irish fans can dare to hope for similar post-season success.
The Week Ahead
Marcus Freeman and the Notre Dame players have a well-earned and much-needed bye week following their sixth straight game. As disappointing as those two opening defeats were, they deserve credit not only for bouncing back with five wins in a row, but also for the manner of those victories. Opponents have been outscored by an average of 42-16 in the five wins. In the last four weeks, the Irish defense has held opponents on average to 24 points below their season scoring average, and 158 yards below their season average offensive production.
Statistics like that are far from insignificant in the context of the playoff committee and its decision-making processes, especially when you’re a team that already has two losses. The Irish are favoured in each of their five remaining games: Boston College (A), Navy (H), Pittsburgh (A), Syracuse (H) and Stanford (A). Pitt aside, they have an over 90% chance of success in the rest.
They can’t control how well Miami and Texas A&M continue to fare, though conference championship game appearances would not be unhelpful, please and thank you. And they certainly have no control over how both their other opponents and the other schools around them play out the rest of their seasons.
But they can determine how well they finish their own season, and their recovery from halftime in the Purdue game bodes well for their chances of impressing the committee in quite a few statistical areas. So far, they have faced four of the top 20 QBs in college football. That drops off a cliff in November, with Navy’s Blake Horvath being by far the best of the remaining signal callers they’ll face.
The defense has already faced the best offenses it will in the regular season and should expect its stats and rankings to improve. For the offense, CJ Carr should have ample opportunity to re-focus and regain his mojo.
Teams will face the NC State/USC conundrum: do you stack the box against this Irish offense like the Wolfpack – and watch Carr throw for 342 yards? Or do you play two high safeties and take your chances with the ND run game – that ran for 306 yards against the Trojans?
The Irish could also have some key players return from injury, either in November or hopefully for a post-season run. C, Ashton Craig, is done for the season, but LG, Billy Schrauth, could return before the end of November, and G/T, Charles Jagusah, who suffered a setback during rehab to his summer injury, could be in line for a December return if all goes well. WR, Jaden Greathouse, should be back in a couple of weeks, and Gabe Rubio, the best DT so far this season, is pencilled in for a late November/ December return. Any and all of these players have key roles still to play in this season’s story for Notre Dame.
Playoff Picture
Defeats for Tennessee and LSU in ranked SEC matchups handed both of them their second loss of the season, which is always helpful from an Irish perspective. Similarly, Ole Miss lost at Georgia and ND fans will be hoping Oklahoma hands Lane Kiffin’s men a second L this weekend. Upsets by South Carolina, Auburn, Duke and/or Utah would all have been helpful, but instead all Notre Dame fans got was Arizona State upsetting Texas Tech.
This week looks a little lighter in ranked matchups and upset potential; yet such weekends are often the very ones that produce the most eye-popping results. To paraphrase Charlie Weis, it’s Cheeseburger Saturday for Irish fans, and as they sit at home dining on this delicacy and hoping to watch others around them lose, Iowa State might be best placed to assist ND when unbeaten BYU visits Ames.
STIOFÁN MAC FHILIB
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A VERY LONG-DISTANCE SUBWAY ALUMNUS OF NOTRE DAME, COUNTY ANTRIM-BASED STIOFÁN HAS BEEN A FAN OF THE FIGHTING IRISH SINCE 2000. FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @SMACFHILIB.