CFB: Notre Dame Fighting Irish Week 14 Preview
By Stiofán Mac Fhilib
Another week and another win for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. It followed the familiar blueprint that most Irish victories have this year, leaving them on the precipice of a playoff berth. Stiofán Mac Fhilib looks back on that win and the tricky final hurdle the USC Trojans represent.
Looking Back at Last Week
Last week in the Bronx saw the anticipated meeting of an unstoppable force and an immoveable object as the 9-0 Army Black Knights renewed their Yankee Stadium rivalry with 9-1 Notre Dame. The cadets came into the matchup with the #1 rushing attack in college football, averaging over 330 yards per game, and with the best scoring defense (10 points per game). The Irish brought their own lauded defense into a game with major playoff implications for both parties.
Army finished the game in their trademark fashion, with a 17-play, 75-yard drive that took 10:18 off the clock. Had they begun the game in a similar manner, then ND may have had their hands full all evening. Instead, that final drive was against the Irish backups, as the Black Knights trailed 7-49 at that point.
Al Golden’s defense put on a masterclass of defending Army’s option attack. The first-team defense held the cadets to 136 yards on the ground with their resilient QB, Bryson Daily, gaining 85 of those, before the final drive. But even the total of 207 yards rushing was massively below their usual output. And Daily, who ultimately managed 139 yards, averaged just 3.6 ypc. His number was called a staggering 39 times, and as I predicted last week, he surely could have done with a VERY long Radox bath on Sunday morning.
It was an utterly dominant performance on both sides of the ball from a Notre Dame team hitting its stride at the best possible time. The Irish only ran 46 plays and mustered 464 yards and 49 points in an impressively efficient display. Riley Leonard threw for 189 yards in basically one half of football, completing 14 of 18 passes to eight different receivers for a pair of TDs and once again no INTs.
It was the running game, though, that was the highlight. 275 yards at 9.8 ypc with 5 TDs showcased the OL’s best performance of the year. And the stable of RBs took full advantage. It wasn’t so much the four horsemen who rode again as the three. Love had his eleventh consecutive game this season with a rushing TD and took the first play of the second half 68 yards to the house. Not bad when facing a defense that had so rarely given up chunk running plays all season.
And to highlight the depth the Irish have at the position, as well as Love and Price both scoring twice on the ground, true freshman, Aneyas Williams, took the first handoff of ND’s first – and only – drive of the fourth quarter and went in from 57 yards out.
On an evening when punter, James Rendell, spent the entire game sitting on the bench wondering how much warmer it currently is back home in Australia, the special teams highlight was freshman DE, Bryce Young, blocking yet another punt, this time setting up Notre Dame’s second drive on the Army 7-yard line.
On the flip side, however, the FG kicking game remains a significant concern, with a potential playoff run imminent. Mitch Jeter was money at South Carolina but has been hampered with a groin injury for over a month. He had a 30-yard FG blocked, though that was on the OL. And his attempt from 48 yards had the legs but certainly nowhere near the accuracy. It remains to be seen if the Irish now decide to rest him completely before a game in mid/late December, or try to see how far he can kick from in the Coliseum.
The Week Ahead
USC Trojans (Los Angeles Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA); 3.30pm EST; 8.30pm GMT
One of the very best of Knute Rockne’s many, many legacies to the University of Notre Dame was his decision to take his Rockne’s Ramblers to the west coast and begin a series with USC. Since 1926, the teams have squared off 94 times, with the Irish leading the series 51-38-5. ‘The Greatest Inter-Sectional Rivalry in all of College Football’ may lack the regional hatred of some other rivalries, but no other game this weekend can boast more combined national championships, Heisman trophy winners, players drafted to the NFL and college All-Americans.
This will be the tenth time a ranked Notre Dame side has gone to Los Angeles to face an unranked Trojan team. The bad news for Irish fans is that ND are 2-5-2 in such games, and several of those losses derailed likely Notre Dame national championships. Ara Parseghian’s first season in 1964 is a particularly sore memory for the Irish. The good news, however, is that the two wins are from the only two such meetings this century, 2012 and 2018.
In rivalry games, though, you can famously ‘throw the record books out the window’, and even in the years where USC seem to have relatively little to play for beyond pride, they almost invariably raise their game and take it to their rivals.
Lincoln Riley was 11-1 after he beat the Irish at the end of his first regular season. He is 14-12 since then (by comparison, Marcus Freeman is 21-4) and a disappointing 6-5 in his first post-Caleb Williams season. He could certainly do with a morale-boosting win ahead of a bowl game that will likely see copious opt-outs.
For all the disappointment around the program though, they really are a significantly better team than their record might at first suggest, especially at home. Their four conference losses on the road were by 3, 7, 1 and 5 points. Their only home reverse was by 3 points in OT to #4 Penn State. And remarkably they have led in the fourth quarter of all five of their losses.
Riley decided several weeks ago to move on from QB, Millar Moss, and switched to UNLV transfer, Jayden Maiava. He hasn’t sparked a significant improvement yet but does provide a greater threat with his legs. Last season Al Golden held Riley’s offense to the lowest yards per play of any of his teams at USC or Oklahoma. As one of the better offensive minds in the game, Riley will be extra keen to show his scheming ability this weekend.
He has legitimate weapons too. RB Woody Marks already has 1,100 yards for the season and is a constant big-play threat. And as at ND, the Trojans like to spread the ball around their top WRs. Five have caught at least 20 passes, with Makai Lemon the biggest playmaker this season, and the ever-dangerous Zachariah Branch always someone to keep an eye on.
With Maiava’s relative inexperience in Riley’s system, expect Golden to bring his trademark pressure early and often, with his most exotic pressures reserved for third downs.
Defensively USC have made major strides this year under new DC, D’Anton Lynn, who they poached away from their cross-town rivals, UCLA. They are well-coached, good on third down, and able to avoid giving up big plays. They did struggle a bit more against Michigan and Penn State, so the Irish may wish to build upon the running game that excelled against Army and see if they can out-physical the Trojans at the line of scrimmage. When ND has punched USC in the mouth in the trenches in the past, more often than not they have flinched. A repeat this Saturday may be the key to a hard-fought Irish victory.
Game Prediction
Notre Dame 28-20 USC
Could the Irish win by two scores or more on an afternoon when the defense confuses and ultimately shuts down Maiava, and the ND offense plays a balanced game, continuing its run of scoring 30 points or more? Absolutely. Am I confident that will happen? I was in the Coliseum back in 2012 and saw the 2018 and 2020 games, so hell, no!
I do think Golden will have the defense ready to keep a lid on Riley’s schemes, but weird things can happen in rivalry games, and I’ve yet to see a USC team, even one with an average record, throw in the towel in this game at home. If Notre Dame fans can relax by halfway through the fourth quarter, then I’ll be delighted, but I won’t be surprised if it’s closer than that.
Where to Watch
No coverage in the UK
CBS (in the USA)
Playoff Picture
Short of Minnesota pulling off the upset at home over Penn State, it’s hard to imagine how much better last weekend could have panned out for Notre Dame’s playoff hopes, and its chances of hosting a first-round game.
Indiana suffered their first loss at Ohio State, dropping them below the Irish, and then remarkably Ole Miss lost at 5-5 Florida and Alabama were shocked 24-3 at a 5-5 Oklahoma team that won only its second-ever SEC game (but which curiously is 2-0 against the state of Alabama!)
When the dust settled, Notre Dame had moved up to #5 in the playoff committee’s rankings with just two weeks to go. They still lie one spot behind a Penn State team that also likely plays its final pre-playoff game this weekend. With USC being the second common opponent the Irish share with the Nittany Lions (who won 33-30 in OT at the Coliseum in mid-October), then a significant win for ND could perhaps be the final additional data point to see them rise to a likely #6 seed instead of #7.
STIOFÁN MAC FHILIB
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYST
A VERY LONG-DISTANCE SUBWAY ALUMNUS OF NOTRE DAME, COUNTY ANTRIM-BASED STIOFÁN HAS BEEN A FAN OF THE FIGHTING IRISH SINCE 2000. FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @SMACFHILIB.