CFB: Notre Dame Fighting Irish Week 11 Preview
By Stiofán Mac Fhilib
Notre Dame is ranked 10th in the first College Football Rankings of the season, and now they must navigate the rest of their schedule to confirm a spot in the playoffs. That all starts this week against Florida State.
Looking Back at Last Week
Notre Dame spent their second bye week last weekend eating the proverbial cheeseburgers and scoreboard-watching ahead of the first College Football Playoff Committee rankings. During ND’s first bye week, seven Top 25 teams, including #1 Alabama, went down. This time round, another seven recorded an ‘L’.
Penn State, Iowa State, and Kansas State’s losses were all helpful from an Irish perspective. Texas A&M’s loss had its pros and cons, but perhaps the most important result for Notre Dame was Louisville’s first-ever win over Clemson.
Interestingly, the AP voters who lifted the Irish from #12 to #8 after their 51-14 demolition of the US Naval Academy moved an inactive ND back down to #10, perhaps in light of yet another big Indiana victory, and BYU’s resumé improving with SMU taking down unbeaten Pitt, while Texas A&M – ND’s best victory – lost.
Of course, all AP votes are now irrelevant – the playoff committee is now the only game in town. And its first output of the season was unusually close to the AP poll. Notre Dame came in at #10, which gives the Irish a clear path to the playoffs if they win out. Whether or not they would host a first-round game may depend on a combination of how well ND plays over its final four outings and results of the teams above and around them, many of whom still have to play one another.
The Week Ahead
Florida State Seminoles (Notre Dame Stadium); 7.30pm EST; 12.30am GMT
The Seminoles’ visit to Notre Dame, fresh off a 13-1 season last year when they were robbed of the playoff spot their record merited, was marked down as the highlight of the 2024 Irish home schedule, especially with Miami pulling out and re-arranging for several years hence. It’s the only night game at Notre Dame Stadium this regular season, and a win here was expected to enhance ND’s resumé significantly.
Then FSU started playing football, and it all went downhill from there. Well, no, that’s a little unfair. As those of us who witnessed their season opener against Georgia Tech in Dublin will recall, their season began perfectly. They received the opening kickoff, and after a touchback, they drove 75 yards in seven plays and 4:02 and scored a 28-yard rushing TD. THEN, it was pretty much all downhill from there.
They are 6-5 all-time against Notre Dame, though they have lost each of the last three meetings. They are 1-8 this season, with a sole 14-9 win over Cal, and have lost five straight. Former Clemson and Oregon State transfer quarterback DJ Uiagalelei picked up a hand injury in the loss at SMU and, after undergoing a minor operation, has not featured since.
He had been struggling massively with a 4-6 TD-INT ratio and 54% completion ratio. However, the two QBs who have since taken snaps, Brock Glenn and Luke Kromenhoek, have completed just 46% and 39% of their respective attempts with even lower yards per attempt than DJ’s 6.8, and have combined for 4 TDs, 5 INTs and 18 sacks so far. Somewhat sub-optimal as they travel north to face the best defense they will likely see all season.
The Seminoles have yet to record a 300-yard game on offense, have yet to have a 100-yard rusher and have tried eight different OL combinations in nine games. And may be about to start a ninth. For all that, they do have talent, including at WR, especially Ja’Khi Douglas. The opportunity to showcase that talent on national television, especially for those hoping to go to the NFL draft, makes FSU a dangerous opponent that ND cannot take lightly.
On defense the Seminoles again have talent but are also less than the sum of their parts. They give up almost 200 yards per game on the ground, not ideal with Leonard, Love and Price behind an improving Irish OL. They also are -12 in turnovers with just two interceptions on the season and one fumble recovered.
Their starting DTs, juniors Darrell Jackson (3.5) and Joshua Farmer (2.5), along with backup Daniel Lyons (2.5), lead the team in sacks and will challenge the ND interior OL. The return of Billy Schrauth to LG will be a big boost to the Irish in this battle.
None of their starting back seven have recorded an INT this season, and Riley Leonard has only been picked off in two of Notre Dame’s eight games to date. Without turnovers, it is hard to see how FSU will be able to keep the game competitive deep into the second half.
It’s worth noting that the Seminoles have already lost 42-16 at SMU and 36-14 at Miami. How ND performs on Saturday evening could be an important data point in the final playoff committee meeting should the Irish end up with a similar resumé to either of those two teams.
Game Prediction
Notre Dame 38-10 Florida State
The Seminoles will come out playing hard—especially on defence—and keep the score respectable in the first half, but the improving Irish OL will help Leonard. Love and co. put the game beyond doubt by the time the ND Band plays the 1812 overture immediately before the fourth quarter.
Where to Watch
Sky Sports+ (Channel 412 on Sky); coverage starts at 12.30am GMT
NBC (in the USA)
Playoff Picture
The playoff committee’s initial rankings were relatively uncontroversial, though many observers were curious as to how Penn State was as high as #6 given their relative lack of quality wins. However, there is plenty of time to let matters play out. Notre Dame’s main focus has to be on winning out, as a 10-2 resumé would likely see them excluded, and few Irish fans could have many complaints in such a scenario.
This coming week, ND will be rooting for defeats for Indiana, Penn State, and BYU in particular, though obviously any upset of a top 15 or so team would be welcome. In the SEC, the Georgia @ Ole Miss and Alabama @ LSU games will help to narrow down the field of contenders there. With Texas A&M and Louisville enjoying a week off, the main focus on cheering on others is Army, as they face their toughest test so far at North Texas.
STIOFÁN MAC FHILIB
COLLEGE FOOTBALL ANALYST
A VERY LONG-DISTANCE SUBWAY ALUMNUS OF NOTRE DAME, COUNTY ANTRIM-BASED STIOFÁN HAS BEEN A FAN OF THE FIGHTING IRISH SINCE 2000. FOLLOW HIM ON TWITTER @SMACFHILIB.